Robert Welz
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robertwelz.bsky.social
Robert Welz
@robertwelz.bsky.social
230 followers 510 following 13 posts
Political Science at Uni Mainz, PhD Candidate, Elections, Coalitions, Experiments
firstgen, he/him
https://rwelz.quarto.pub/web
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Robert Welz
joenoonan.se
"final_draft_😂😂😂.docx"
November 11, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Reposted by Robert Welz
hanvoi.bsky.social
„Das ist kleinliche Pedanterie, man möchte fast sagen: Ideologischer Wahn.“ Mein FR-Kommentar zu den Absurditäten des hessischen „Genderverbots“. (hanvoi) www.fr.de/rhein-main/l...
„Genderverbot“ in Hessen: Das ist keine Realpolitik, das ist ideologischer Wahn
In Hessen wird eine Schule gezwungen, ihren Instagram-Account von Sonderzeichen zu säubern. Das „Genderverbot“ wird endgültig absurd. Ein Kommentar.
www.fr.de
September 24, 2025 at 5:39 AM
robertwelz.bsky.social
New paper in @prxjournal.bsky.social

We conducted 4 experiments in Germany to examine how voters respond when opposition parties choose conflict or cooperation with the government.

Findings: Cooperation tends to win more support

🔗 doi.org/10.1080/2474...

#polisky
Screenshot of the abstract of the paper, which reads: Opposition parties are central actors in accounts of democracies (e.g. Dahl 1966). Prior research addressed issues such as institutional factors to gauge the power wielded by opposition parties, and how they affect opposition parties’ choices for engaging in conflictual behaviour vis-à-vis the government or opting for cooperative approaches. However, scant attention has been devoted to understanding citizens’ views of such opposition party behaviour. We aim to fill this gap by examining how opposition parties’ choices of conflict or cooperation with the government affect citizens’ evaluations of both opposition and government parties. Our study centres on the case of Germany, where the considerable institutional power vested in opposition parties provides a framework for genuine choice between cooperation and conflict. We use data from four large-scale survey experiments in which we systematically manipulated opposition party behaviour. These experiments were conducted between 2020 and 2022, allowing us to study the effects of opposition party behaviour in different contexts, including cases of crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and in the realm of more everyday politics. Although mixed, the results suggest that cooperative opposition party behaviour provides a promising, often overlooked avenue for opposition parties to attract citizens.
June 23, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
samlikeybikey.bsky.social
Be still my beating heart!
#giro #thatdamnedsmile
That damn smile meme with Wout smiling as he picked up Yates
May 31, 2025 at 1:49 PM
robertwelz.bsky.social
What a stage. I can’t remember anything like this. What a performance by Wout 👑 #giro
May 31, 2025 at 2:16 PM
robertwelz.bsky.social
Deutscher wird‘s nicht mehr heute
Ein foto von einer Plakette. Darauf ist zu lesen: Es handelt sich nicht um ein Spielgerät im Sinne der DIN EN 1176. Der Betreiber muss sicherstellen, dass es nicht als Spielgerät genutzt wird.
May 3, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
electoralstudies.bsky.social
ON LEADERSHIP AND CAMPAIGN EFFECTS

“Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run”, by @inert-emergence.bsky.social, Fabio Best, Sascha Huber, and @robertwelz.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run
The German federal election 2021 was remarkable partly because the incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel, albeit still popular, was not running for re-el…
www.sciencedirect.com
February 21, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
pluggedchris.bsky.social
Immer wieder wichtig daran zu erinnern, dass die AfD zwar viel (ostdeutsche) Landmasse blau einfärben kann, dahinter aber aufgrund der Bevölkerungsdichte viel weniger Menschen stehen als suggeriert wird - und vor allem keine echten 50%+x Mehrheiten, sondern um die 30%. www.dvpw.de/blog/die-mac...
February 12, 2025 at 5:08 PM
robertwelz.bsky.social
👀
Erklärung von Bundeskanzlerin a. D. Dr. Angela Merkel zur Abstimmung im Deutschen Bundestag am 29. Januar 2025
www.buero-bundeskanzlerin-ad.de
January 30, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Reposted by Robert Welz
wurthmann.bsky.social
📢 Neue Publikation: "Koalitionen mit der AfD? Determinanten der Präferenzbildung in Ost- und Westdeutschland vor der Bundestagswahl 2021" in Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft
#AfD #CDU #FDP #CSU #Ostdeutschland #Westdeutschland #Koalitionspräferenzen
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Koalitionen mit der AfD? Determinanten der Präferenzbildung in Ost- und Westdeutschland vor der Bundestagswahl 2021 - Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft
The influence of coalition preferences on individual voting behaviour has been a substantial part of political science studies. But still, research on the formation of coalition preferences is in its ...
link.springer.com
January 10, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
ardenthistorian.bsky.social
Thilo Mischke, 2021, im Gespräch mit der Journalistin Nadine Primo. Niemand hat’s so schwer wie Thilo, außer *checks notes*… „Adolf Hitler vielleicht“?!
Mischke: (14:40) „Jedenfalls muss ich elf Jahre nach erscheinen immer noch über dieses Buch reden, das haben nicht viele Autoren, die sich nach elf Jahren immer noch rechtfertigen müssen für ihr Buch. Adolf Hitler vielleicht, der müsste sich für "Mein Kampf" glaub ich immer noch rechtfertigen, wenn er noch leben würde." Primo: "Ja definitiv das wär mal spannend wenn er das tun würde."
December 23, 2024 at 12:56 PM
robertwelz.bsky.social
🤯 pictures in connections! I was so excited that I had to do the first group before I could take the screenshot @nytimes.com
December 12, 2024 at 8:38 AM
Reposted by Robert Welz
strengejacke.de
{ggeffects} version 2.0.0 is out now! Read more about this #rstats package at strengejacke.github.io/ggeffects

What does {ggeffects} do? The 📦 helps you to understand (complex) models and results by calculating and plotting *estimated marginal means* or more generally, *adjusted predictions*. 🧵
Create Tidy Data Frames of Marginal Effects for ggplot from Model Outputs
Compute marginal effects and adjusted predictions from statistical models and returns the result as tidy data frames. These data frames are ready to use with the ggplot2-package. Effects and predictio...
strengejacke.github.io
November 29, 2024 at 10:45 AM
robertwelz.bsky.social
Mittelschwere Krise in meinem intuitiven Verständnis der Pyramiden. Bei der FDP ist die Spitze der erste Schritt und das Fundament der letzte. So rum baut man doch keine Pyramide?
November 29, 2024 at 3:03 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
paulkelleher.net
November 12, 1973 --- The day Philosophy & Public Affairs started treating Rawls like Jesus.
A letter on Philosophy & Public Affairs letterhead that reads: November 12, 1973 Professor Robert Nozick Department of Philosophy Emerson Hall Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138 Dear Professor Nozick, I have been meaning to send you a note ever since you did not telephone the second time last week just to say that I decided after all to drop the offending post-apostrophes from the possessive of Rawls. This is, as I told you, according to the Chicago Manual of Style an honor due only to Moses and Jesus, but with us aesthetic considerations won out. The decision puts us somewhat in a class by ourselves -- I note that in Brian Barry's new book he and Oxford Press write Rawls's -- but I don't mind being different. I trust that you will not. sincerely， Margot Cutter
November 25, 2024 at 9:29 PM
robertwelz.bsky.social
There is rStrava?! 🧡 Splendid
November 21, 2024 at 11:47 AM
Reposted by Robert Welz
drjennings.bsky.social
I deleted nearly 90,000 tweets last night using this excellent free package. So long X. github.com/lucahammer/t...
GitHub - lucahammer/tweetXer: Delete all your Tweets for free
Delete all your Tweets for free. Contribute to lucahammer/tweetXer development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
November 18, 2024 at 1:32 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
inert-emergence.bsky.social
What feeds do you have pinned that you think I am missing out on?

Here are mine:
November 17, 2024 at 2:43 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
inert-emergence.bsky.social
Polisky, we were able to go open access with our article "Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run". Download it as often as you like - and maybe cite it here and there 😉

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
inert-emergence.bsky.social Holger Reinermann @inert-emergence.bsky.social · Oct 20
Polisky! Fabio Best, Sascha Huber, @robertwelz.bsky.social and I have a thing in Electoral Studies. It's called "Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run". Go get it for free until Dec 7:
authors.elsevier.com/a/1hxskxRaZg...
Client Request ErrorScienceDirect
authors.elsevier.com
December 1, 2023 at 11:08 AM
robertwelz.bsky.social
Wieso steht der Entschluss, u.a. an Unis Sprache festzuschreiben (sic!) unter Punkt 10 „Freiheit“? Und wie spät wurde das alles verfasst, dass das direkt hinter mündigen Bürger*innen und „Anreize statt Verbote“ und „Beteiligung statt Bevormundung“ steht?
November 11, 2023 at 9:27 AM
robertwelz.bsky.social
Anyone with best practices for data analysis (mostly R) on an ipad?
Some of our students no longer have laptops. PC labs (need to be on site) and remote desktop (usability on the tablet and connectivity) work (but rather suboptimally).
Any experience with posit cloud in class maybe?
October 25, 2023 at 3:48 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
inert-emergence.bsky.social
Polisky! Fabio Best, Sascha Huber, @robertwelz.bsky.social and I have a thing in Electoral Studies. It's called "Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run". Go get it for free until Dec 7:
authors.elsevier.com/a/1hxskxRaZg...
Client Request ErrorScienceDirect
authors.elsevier.com
October 20, 2023 at 9:41 AM
robertwelz.bsky.social
In our new article, we find:

- Retiring incumbents (Merkel in 2021) can still play a role for vote intentions

- This effect 'washes off' over the course of a campaign

- Some of their popularity may 'rub off' on their successors if they manage to align themselves (which Laschet didn't)
October 20, 2023 at 3:16 PM
Reposted by Robert Welz
lhaffert.bsky.social
Zwei der wichtigsten Gegensätze bei den Wahlen in Hessen und Bayern: Stadt-Land und Jung-Alt. Wie @indubioproreto.bsky.social und ich in einer jetzt erschienenen Studie zeigen, sind diese Gegensätze eng verbunden: Der sprichwörtliche Stadt-Land-Graben trennt vor allem die Jungen 1/8
October 20, 2023 at 6:59 AM