bird facts
@rippinghottakes.bsky.social
relentlessly cheery individual ☀️ physicist ⚛️
With today’s Essential likely being the last poll we’ll get before Christmas, I’ve done a regression model of this year’s data. Not much happened until the last two months.
Local cubic regression estimate is LNP 39.3 (+3.6), ALP 28.9 (-3.7), GRN 13.5 (+1.3), with +/- since 2022.
Local cubic regression estimate is LNP 39.3 (+3.6), ALP 28.9 (-3.7), GRN 13.5 (+1.3), with +/- since 2022.
December 17, 2024 at 3:51 AM
With today’s Essential likely being the last poll we’ll get before Christmas, I’ve done a regression model of this year’s data. Not much happened until the last two months.
Local cubic regression estimate is LNP 39.3 (+3.6), ALP 28.9 (-3.7), GRN 13.5 (+1.3), with +/- since 2022.
Local cubic regression estimate is LNP 39.3 (+3.6), ALP 28.9 (-3.7), GRN 13.5 (+1.3), with +/- since 2022.
New Resolve poll from The Age/SMH reporting a new record low primary vote for Labor.
ALP 27 (-3)
LNP 38 (-1)
GRN 12 (+1)
ON 7 (+2)
OTH 16 (+1)
(Some weirdness with the region/gender breakdowns, which seem to suggest GRN 13 and are incompatible with GRN 12 even with rounding).
ALP 27 (-3)
LNP 38 (-1)
GRN 12 (+1)
ON 7 (+2)
OTH 16 (+1)
(Some weirdness with the region/gender breakdowns, which seem to suggest GRN 13 and are incompatible with GRN 12 even with rounding).
December 8, 2024 at 7:32 AM
New Resolve poll from The Age/SMH reporting a new record low primary vote for Labor.
ALP 27 (-3)
LNP 38 (-1)
GRN 12 (+1)
ON 7 (+2)
OTH 16 (+1)
(Some weirdness with the region/gender breakdowns, which seem to suggest GRN 13 and are incompatible with GRN 12 even with rounding).
ALP 27 (-3)
LNP 38 (-1)
GRN 12 (+1)
ON 7 (+2)
OTH 16 (+1)
(Some weirdness with the region/gender breakdowns, which seem to suggest GRN 13 and are incompatible with GRN 12 even with rounding).
New VIC State election poll from Redbridge (@kossamaras.bsky.social’s firm) ALP 30 (-7) LNP 43 (+9) GRN 14 (+3) OTH 13 (-5) (+/- since last election)
Labor would probably end up with more seats than the LNP (the seat map in VIC is dire for them) but may need the Greens to form government.
Labor would probably end up with more seats than the LNP (the seat map in VIC is dire for them) but may need the Greens to form government.
November 29, 2024 at 9:14 PM
New VIC State election poll from Redbridge (@kossamaras.bsky.social’s firm) ALP 30 (-7) LNP 43 (+9) GRN 14 (+3) OTH 13 (-5) (+/- since last election)
Labor would probably end up with more seats than the LNP (the seat map in VIC is dire for them) but may need the Greens to form government.
Labor would probably end up with more seats than the LNP (the seat map in VIC is dire for them) but may need the Greens to form government.
Labor’s attempt to bring on all of their legislation for a vote today was just defeated 33-34.
David Pocock followed through on his threat to vote against the government unless Labor reversed their decision to scrap their deal with the Greens to pass environmental legislation.
David Pocock followed through on his threat to vote against the government unless Labor reversed their decision to scrap their deal with the Greens to pass environmental legislation.
Checking in on how things are going for Labor relying on the Coalition to get their legislation through the Senate
November 27, 2024 at 11:29 PM
Labor’s attempt to bring on all of their legislation for a vote today was just defeated 33-34.
David Pocock followed through on his threat to vote against the government unless Labor reversed their decision to scrap their deal with the Greens to pass environmental legislation.
David Pocock followed through on his threat to vote against the government unless Labor reversed their decision to scrap their deal with the Greens to pass environmental legislation.
Checking in on how things are going for Labor relying on the Coalition to get their legislation through the Senate
November 27, 2024 at 9:48 PM
Checking in on how things are going for Labor relying on the Coalition to get their legislation through the Senate
A deal between Labor and the Greens to pass legislation has been scrapped after a personal intervention by Albanese.
If Labor loses their majority at the next election (as current polling suggests is likely), a change in leadership might look tempting.
www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...
If Labor loses their majority at the next election (as current polling suggests is likely), a change in leadership might look tempting.
www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...
Albanese intervenes to scupper Plibersek’s negotiations with the Greens
Tanya Plibersek’s negotiations with the Greens over a major environmental reform were close to bearing fruit. But the prime minister halted talks.
www.theage.com.au
November 27, 2024 at 3:08 AM
A deal between Labor and the Greens to pass legislation has been scrapped after a personal intervention by Albanese.
If Labor loses their majority at the next election (as current polling suggests is likely), a change in leadership might look tempting.
www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...
If Labor loses their majority at the next election (as current polling suggests is likely), a change in leadership might look tempting.
www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...
The only viable path to Ananda-Rajah getting elected is with a 4-2 left/right split in the VIC senate results (ALP 3, LNP 2, GRN 1).
Labor would need to be winning the nationwide 2PP by something like 54-46 for that to happen, and they’re currently losing the 2PP in most polls.
Labor would need to be winning the nationwide 2PP by something like 54-46 for that to happen, and they’re currently losing the 2PP in most polls.
Michelle Ananda-Rajah, the Labor MP for the abolished seat of Higgins, will run for the Senate in the third spot on the party’s ticket according to reports this morning.
Very hard to see her getting elected from that position based on current polling figures.
Very hard to see her getting elected from that position based on current polling figures.
November 21, 2024 at 8:56 PM
The only viable path to Ananda-Rajah getting elected is with a 4-2 left/right split in the VIC senate results (ALP 3, LNP 2, GRN 1).
Labor would need to be winning the nationwide 2PP by something like 54-46 for that to happen, and they’re currently losing the 2PP in most polls.
Labor would need to be winning the nationwide 2PP by something like 54-46 for that to happen, and they’re currently losing the 2PP in most polls.
Michelle Ananda-Rajah, the Labor MP for the abolished seat of Higgins, will run for the Senate in the third spot on the party’s ticket according to reports this morning.
Very hard to see her getting elected from that position based on current polling figures.
Very hard to see her getting elected from that position based on current polling figures.
November 21, 2024 at 7:56 PM
Michelle Ananda-Rajah, the Labor MP for the abolished seat of Higgins, will run for the Senate in the third spot on the party’s ticket according to reports this morning.
Very hard to see her getting elected from that position based on current polling figures.
Very hard to see her getting elected from that position based on current polling figures.
This is also the third poll in a row now to report Greens support going up in contrast to Resolve (SMH/The Age) who found a 1 point drop in their vote in their latest poll.
A good reminder not to base multiple days of editorialising on a margin-of-error movement in one poll.
A good reminder not to base multiple days of editorialising on a margin-of-error movement in one poll.
New Essential poll this morning has LNP 35 (+1), ALP 30 (-1), GRN 13 (+1), and OTH 16 (-2), with 6% undecided.
2PP puts Labor marginally ahead 50.5 (+1.5) to 49.5 (-1.5) which seems to be down to a shift in respondent-allocated preferences.
2PP puts Labor marginally ahead 50.5 (+1.5) to 49.5 (-1.5) which seems to be down to a shift in respondent-allocated preferences.
November 18, 2024 at 9:21 PM
This is also the third poll in a row now to report Greens support going up in contrast to Resolve (SMH/The Age) who found a 1 point drop in their vote in their latest poll.
A good reminder not to base multiple days of editorialising on a margin-of-error movement in one poll.
A good reminder not to base multiple days of editorialising on a margin-of-error movement in one poll.
New Essential poll this morning has LNP 35 (+1), ALP 30 (-1), GRN 13 (+1), and OTH 16 (-2), with 6% undecided.
2PP puts Labor marginally ahead 50.5 (+1.5) to 49.5 (-1.5) which seems to be down to a shift in respondent-allocated preferences.
2PP puts Labor marginally ahead 50.5 (+1.5) to 49.5 (-1.5) which seems to be down to a shift in respondent-allocated preferences.
November 18, 2024 at 9:18 PM
New Essential poll this morning has LNP 35 (+1), ALP 30 (-1), GRN 13 (+1), and OTH 16 (-2), with 6% undecided.
2PP puts Labor marginally ahead 50.5 (+1.5) to 49.5 (-1.5) which seems to be down to a shift in respondent-allocated preferences.
2PP puts Labor marginally ahead 50.5 (+1.5) to 49.5 (-1.5) which seems to be down to a shift in respondent-allocated preferences.
New Freshwater poll in the AFR puts gov firmly into minority territory.
LNP 40 (-1)
ALP 30 (n.c)
GRN 14 (+1)
OTH 16 (n.c)
LNP lead 51-49 on a 2PP basis, but Labor probably in a better position to form government (with GRN/IND) on a uniform swing.
www.afr.com/politics/fed...
LNP 40 (-1)
ALP 30 (n.c)
GRN 14 (+1)
OTH 16 (n.c)
LNP lead 51-49 on a 2PP basis, but Labor probably in a better position to form government (with GRN/IND) on a uniform swing.
www.afr.com/politics/fed...
Dutton best suited to handle Trump, Labor still facing minority: poll
The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy polling shows the Albanese government remains behind the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis.
www.afr.com
November 18, 2024 at 1:07 AM
New Freshwater poll in the AFR puts gov firmly into minority territory.
LNP 40 (-1)
ALP 30 (n.c)
GRN 14 (+1)
OTH 16 (n.c)
LNP lead 51-49 on a 2PP basis, but Labor probably in a better position to form government (with GRN/IND) on a uniform swing.
www.afr.com/politics/fed...
LNP 40 (-1)
ALP 30 (n.c)
GRN 14 (+1)
OTH 16 (n.c)
LNP lead 51-49 on a 2PP basis, but Labor probably in a better position to form government (with GRN/IND) on a uniform swing.
www.afr.com/politics/fed...
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November 13, 2024 at 6:50 PM
Everyone on this site has a library card