I think he’s done. This is an effort to delay the inevitable lame duck status.

He’s done.

Though if someone asks me… this is a political fight not a natsec issue and it was A Bad Idea by a politician who feels he is cornered and thinks resorting to old style ‘politics’ has value (it doesn’t).

I wrote about the prospects for higher equity allocs in July in my review/explanation of the GPIF allocations, policies, methods, and circumstances.

For @smartkarma subs...

Fy23 GPIF Results and Portfolio Changes - Outlook for FY24. Read more: skr.ma/G7y4o

solvent against future liabilities (which Brad Setzer noted are not explicit) for longer.

It is a reasonable "political goal", but it works, in return terms, with a stable USDJPY not a strong USDJPY.

And as far as I can tell, Barron seems to have done a rug pull. Or tried to.

Because it is the 16th of November (i.e. for no particular reason), I have removed the paywall on this week's summary of SOUTHBOUND flows.

There are tools to see positions and flows over time. Enjoy!

www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-...

Tencent was the big net buy on the week for SOUTHBOUND. Alibaba and Xiaomi were #2 and #3.

Net buying by SOUTHBOUND in Info/Tech is decent recently, but still nothing like the froth of early 2021.

Because it is the 16th of November, I have removed the paywall on this week's A/H Premium Tracker.

There are lots of tools to play around with. Please enjoy!

Hint, if clicking on a name to see the chart, unclick the one already clicked.

www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-h...

One can see Sinopec (386 HK) is at its cheapest in 52 weeks (the yellow dot in the premium range section in the first table) and also at its widest in 5yrs in terms of H vs A (A premium to H highest in 5yrs)

Somewhat strangely, intracorrelation of pairs is low recently (after spiking through the Sep hols) and pairwise volatility is also low (until this week).

The top chart below shows As have sharply outperformed Hs within their pairs recently. The second shows just how much it is on a rolling basis.

¥900bn of buybacks after the next 12mos over the following 24mos.

And that tells you where EPS will trend to in a few years’ time.

So after the first 12mos, Denso probably has another ¥540bn (at current price) to buy just from UnListedCo and TIC.

But… if they buy say ¥350-400bn a year, that puts Toyota Motors closer to a legal voting rights border problem. So they’d sell some too.

This buyback is ¥450bn. I expect there is

12mos. So ¥160bn would come from the public. That’s about 4% of ADV every day on a net basis.

But Toyota Group shareholders are selling crossholdings and that will likely include big holdings in a large unlisted Toyota Group member. And that member will have to sell its ¥300bn of Denso to fund it.

They also said financial crossholders had approached wanting to sell. That’s the P&C insurers. 1.2% or ~¥80bn.

Also today, TIC said it would sell its 185mm shares from Dec24 through Mar27. No method decided but as it is ¥400bn, it’ll probably be a 28mo VWAP trade. That’s about ¥160bn in the next