Travis Lundy
@quiddity.bsky.social
Independent Investment Research
The big flows for S&P500/400/600/Completion rebalance.
17x ADV (estimated) to buy on APO.
13x ADV (estimated) to buy on WDAY.
3-4x ADV to sell on QRVO and AMTM
$11bn of funding trade on S&P498
$11bn of reverse funding on S&P Completion -2
$5bn a side for $RSP.
The piece: skr.ma/UgLmN
17x ADV (estimated) to buy on APO.
13x ADV (estimated) to buy on WDAY.
3-4x ADV to sell on QRVO and AMTM
$11bn of funding trade on S&P498
$11bn of reverse funding on S&P Completion -2
$5bn a side for $RSP.
The piece: skr.ma/UgLmN
S&P500 Dec24 Rebalance: APO and WDAY IN; QRVO and AMTM Demoted - Travis Lundy
S&P500/400/600 Index rebal names were announced Friday. APO + WDAY are the big S&P500 adds. QRVO and AMTM get demoted to 600. 17x/13x ADV for the ADDs, 3+x ADV for the sells. $10bn of funding trades.
skr.ma
December 9, 2024 at 12:26 PM
The big flows for S&P500/400/600/Completion rebalance.
17x ADV (estimated) to buy on APO.
13x ADV (estimated) to buy on WDAY.
3-4x ADV to sell on QRVO and AMTM
$11bn of funding trade on S&P498
$11bn of reverse funding on S&P Completion -2
$5bn a side for $RSP.
The piece: skr.ma/UgLmN
17x ADV (estimated) to buy on APO.
13x ADV (estimated) to buy on WDAY.
3-4x ADV to sell on QRVO and AMTM
$11bn of funding trade on S&P498
$11bn of reverse funding on S&P Completion -2
$5bn a side for $RSP.
The piece: skr.ma/UgLmN
Reposted by Travis Lundy
In light of the martial war declaration in South Korea, here are some people you should follow for informed analyses & news about the developing situation.
Koreanists: go.bsky.app/U3Nm5FX
Korea watchers: go.bsky.app/9SrguSU
Korean studies scholars: go.bsky.app/8nRZ5tp
+ @koreajoongangdaily.com
Koreanists: go.bsky.app/U3Nm5FX
Korea watchers: go.bsky.app/9SrguSU
Korean studies scholars: go.bsky.app/8nRZ5tp
+ @koreajoongangdaily.com
Koreanists
Join the conversation
go.bsky.app
December 3, 2024 at 2:40 PM
In light of the martial war declaration in South Korea, here are some people you should follow for informed analyses & news about the developing situation.
Koreanists: go.bsky.app/U3Nm5FX
Korea watchers: go.bsky.app/9SrguSU
Korean studies scholars: go.bsky.app/8nRZ5tp
+ @koreajoongangdaily.com
Koreanists: go.bsky.app/U3Nm5FX
Korea watchers: go.bsky.app/9SrguSU
Korean studies scholars: go.bsky.app/8nRZ5tp
+ @koreajoongangdaily.com
S Korea has seen martial law before but it doesn’t always end the same.
The big picture issues will be all over the geopol pundit timelines.
The nuances of how this works out are going to be domestically understood rather than Twitter/bsky experts.
Find the right expert.
(it ain’t me).
The big picture issues will be all over the geopol pundit timelines.
The nuances of how this works out are going to be domestically understood rather than Twitter/bsky experts.
Find the right expert.
(it ain’t me).
December 3, 2024 at 3:04 PM
S Korea has seen martial law before but it doesn’t always end the same.
The big picture issues will be all over the geopol pundit timelines.
The nuances of how this works out are going to be domestically understood rather than Twitter/bsky experts.
Find the right expert.
(it ain’t me).
The big picture issues will be all over the geopol pundit timelines.
The nuances of how this works out are going to be domestically understood rather than Twitter/bsky experts.
Find the right expert.
(it ain’t me).
*JAPAN WANTS TO LIFT GPIF REAL INVESTMENT RETURN TARGET TO 1.9%
This means less domestic bonds, more Japan and foreign equities.
The "political angle" here is to 'force' a higher target return, more risk, with the 'political goal' being to keep the GPIF
This means less domestic bonds, more Japan and foreign equities.
The "political angle" here is to 'force' a higher target return, more risk, with the 'political goal' being to keep the GPIF
December 2, 2024 at 7:32 AM
*JAPAN WANTS TO LIFT GPIF REAL INVESTMENT RETURN TARGET TO 1.9%
This means less domestic bonds, more Japan and foreign equities.
The "political angle" here is to 'force' a higher target return, more risk, with the 'political goal' being to keep the GPIF
This means less domestic bonds, more Japan and foreign equities.
The "political angle" here is to 'force' a higher target return, more risk, with the 'political goal' being to keep the GPIF
And you thought the used car premium got silly last time…
November 26, 2024 at 12:11 AM
And you thought the used car premium got silly last time…
Keisei Elec (9009 JP) is bouncing hard today on a Toyo Keizai report that noted Japanese activist Murakami-san has bought a stake (under 1%).
Keisei is getting the boot from MSCI today. A bunch of HFs who had been short are getting a nice lesson in shareholder structure risk.
Keisei is getting the boot from MSCI today. A bunch of HFs who had been short are getting a nice lesson in shareholder structure risk.
November 25, 2024 at 8:04 AM
Keisei Elec (9009 JP) is bouncing hard today on a Toyo Keizai report that noted Japanese activist Murakami-san has bought a stake (under 1%).
Keisei is getting the boot from MSCI today. A bunch of HFs who had been short are getting a nice lesson in shareholder structure risk.
Keisei is getting the boot from MSCI today. A bunch of HFs who had been short are getting a nice lesson in shareholder structure risk.
So… 7&i…
So… 7&i.
November 19, 2024 at 1:21 PM
So… 7&i…
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND saw BIG buying this past week (previous week was big too) as HK stocks got shellacked on the week (HSI -6.3%, HSCEI -6.45%) and mainland blue chip indices were also hurt (CSI300, SSE50, SSE180 were -3.3%, -3.4%, -3.64%) and CSI 500 worse (-4.8%)
November 16, 2024 at 4:09 PM
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND saw BIG buying this past week (previous week was big too) as HK stocks got shellacked on the week (HSI -6.3%, HSCEI -6.45%) and mainland blue chip indices were also hurt (CSI300, SSE50, SSE180 were -3.3%, -3.4%, -3.64%) and CSI 500 worse (-4.8%)
This past week in H-share/A-share pairs was something of a disaster.
Within the HK/mainland universe, H/A pairs saw H underperformance of 3.7% for the average liquid pair. Tech and Financials were especially hurt.
Within the HK/mainland universe, H/A pairs saw H underperformance of 3.7% for the average liquid pair. Tech and Financials were especially hurt.
November 16, 2024 at 4:05 PM
This past week in H-share/A-share pairs was something of a disaster.
Within the HK/mainland universe, H/A pairs saw H underperformance of 3.7% for the average liquid pair. Tech and Financials were especially hurt.
Within the HK/mainland universe, H/A pairs saw H underperformance of 3.7% for the average liquid pair. Tech and Financials were especially hurt.
When Aisin (7259) announced a year ago September that it would sell all its cross-holdings eventually, it meant Toyota Group would go from capital governance recidivist to leader.
In November, a bunch of small sell downs occurred across the group. Then in late Nov23, the first big name selldown as
In November, a bunch of small sell downs occurred across the group. Then in late Nov23, the first big name selldown as
October 31, 2024 at 1:02 PM
When Aisin (7259) announced a year ago September that it would sell all its cross-holdings eventually, it meant Toyota Group would go from capital governance recidivist to leader.
In November, a bunch of small sell downs occurred across the group. Then in late Nov23, the first big name selldown as
In November, a bunch of small sell downs occurred across the group. Then in late Nov23, the first big name selldown as
Reposted by Travis Lundy
Heads up - at least 3 of you are following this sexist, racist bit of trash. He was following me. 🤮
October 28, 2024 at 7:49 AM
Heads up - at least 3 of you are following this sexist, racist bit of trash. He was following me. 🤮
A really big week in SOUTHBOUND again.
Net buying of HK$36.5bn. Big.
Gross activity of HK$376bn, which is lower than last week and much lower than the week before.
For the first time since it became SOUTHBOUND-eligible, Alibaba was not the top buy on the week.
Net buying of HK$36.5bn. Big.
Gross activity of HK$376bn, which is lower than last week and much lower than the week before.
For the first time since it became SOUTHBOUND-eligible, Alibaba was not the top buy on the week.
October 27, 2024 at 1:44 AM
A really big week in SOUTHBOUND again.
Net buying of HK$36.5bn. Big.
Gross activity of HK$376bn, which is lower than last week and much lower than the week before.
For the first time since it became SOUTHBOUND-eligible, Alibaba was not the top buy on the week.
Net buying of HK$36.5bn. Big.
Gross activity of HK$376bn, which is lower than last week and much lower than the week before.
For the first time since it became SOUTHBOUND-eligible, Alibaba was not the top buy on the week.
Tokyo Metro is down small (-1.55%) on Day 2 post-IPO.
It was +45% on Day1.
Volumes still big as 44.8mm shs (~16% of the IPO) traded in the AM session.
Some disappointed by apparent denial of MSCI fast-entry. It was to be smaller than FTSE and TOPIX in any case, and will get added in early 2025.
It was +45% on Day1.
Volumes still big as 44.8mm shs (~16% of the IPO) traded in the AM session.
Some disappointed by apparent denial of MSCI fast-entry. It was to be smaller than FTSE and TOPIX in any case, and will get added in early 2025.
October 24, 2024 at 3:28 AM
Tokyo Metro is down small (-1.55%) on Day 2 post-IPO.
It was +45% on Day1.
Volumes still big as 44.8mm shs (~16% of the IPO) traded in the AM session.
Some disappointed by apparent denial of MSCI fast-entry. It was to be smaller than FTSE and TOPIX in any case, and will get added in early 2025.
It was +45% on Day1.
Volumes still big as 44.8mm shs (~16% of the IPO) traded in the AM session.
Some disappointed by apparent denial of MSCI fast-entry. It was to be smaller than FTSE and TOPIX in any case, and will get added in early 2025.
Reposted by Travis Lundy
Seeing the influx of tech people coming over to Bluesky reminds me that we *all* made tech twitter what it was, not the other way around.
October 23, 2024 at 3:31 AM
Seeing the influx of tech people coming over to Bluesky reminds me that we *all* made tech twitter what it was, not the other way around.
Shin Kong Financial and Taishin Financial shareholders approve their merger.
Now it goes to the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission and the Financial Supervisory Commission to approve the combination.
Now it goes to the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission and the Financial Supervisory Commission to approve the combination.
October 9, 2024 at 10:05 AM
Shin Kong Financial and Taishin Financial shareholders approve their merger.
Now it goes to the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission and the Financial Supervisory Commission to approve the combination.
Now it goes to the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission and the Financial Supervisory Commission to approve the combination.
The TOPIX October Free Float Weight Review is the largest domestic index rebalance flow of the year. Announced yesterday. It will go into effect 30 October 2024 at the close.
¥2,035,267,728,055 to buy. Exactly.
¥2,035,267,728,055 to sell. Exactly.
¥2,035,267,728,055 to buy. Exactly.
¥2,035,267,728,055 to sell. Exactly.
October 8, 2024 at 10:34 AM
The TOPIX October Free Float Weight Review is the largest domestic index rebalance flow of the year. Announced yesterday. It will go into effect 30 October 2024 at the close.
¥2,035,267,728,055 to buy. Exactly.
¥2,035,267,728,055 to sell. Exactly.
¥2,035,267,728,055 to buy. Exactly.
¥2,035,267,728,055 to sell. Exactly.
Toyo Construction (1890)
I have followed the situation in great detail since the Infroneer offer in March 2022.
A few weeks weeks ago I wrote and said I expected the AGM to be close but I expected YFO would lose.
Instead they got 7 of 9 directors elected by a shareholder register bent on
I have followed the situation in great detail since the Infroneer offer in March 2022.
A few weeks weeks ago I wrote and said I expected the AGM to be close but I expected YFO would lose.
Instead they got 7 of 9 directors elected by a shareholder register bent on
July 2, 2023 at 9:45 AM
Toyo Construction (1890)
I have followed the situation in great detail since the Infroneer offer in March 2022.
A few weeks weeks ago I wrote and said I expected the AGM to be close but I expected YFO would lose.
Instead they got 7 of 9 directors elected by a shareholder register bent on
I have followed the situation in great detail since the Infroneer offer in March 2022.
A few weeks weeks ago I wrote and said I expected the AGM to be close but I expected YFO would lose.
Instead they got 7 of 9 directors elected by a shareholder register bent on
Going to start putting stuff here as well as that other place just because.
Jamie (@JamieHalse) runs a great Japan fund and knows a lot about Japan. I am going to comment on this new JPX Prime 150 (JPXI) index with some disagreement.
Yes, JPXI is designed to showcase "blue chips" in Japan which
Jamie (@JamieHalse) runs a great Japan fund and knows a lot about Japan. I am going to comment on this new JPX Prime 150 (JPXI) index with some disagreement.
Yes, JPXI is designed to showcase "blue chips" in Japan which
July 2, 2023 at 7:39 AM
Going to start putting stuff here as well as that other place just because.
Jamie (@JamieHalse) runs a great Japan fund and knows a lot about Japan. I am going to comment on this new JPX Prime 150 (JPXI) index with some disagreement.
Yes, JPXI is designed to showcase "blue chips" in Japan which
Jamie (@JamieHalse) runs a great Japan fund and knows a lot about Japan. I am going to comment on this new JPX Prime 150 (JPXI) index with some disagreement.
Yes, JPXI is designed to showcase "blue chips" in Japan which
SBI has launched its deal to take out Shinsei Bank (8303) minorities at ¥2,800/share.
My tome is now out. It has it all. Laughter, tears, hand-wringing, and Judy Blume title angst.
tl;dr: The Shinsei Board dropped the ball.
My tome is now out. It has it all. Laughter, tears, hand-wringing, and Judy Blume title angst.
tl;dr: The Shinsei Board dropped the ball.
May 14, 2023 at 11:02 AM
SBI has launched its deal to take out Shinsei Bank (8303) minorities at ¥2,800/share.
My tome is now out. It has it all. Laughter, tears, hand-wringing, and Judy Blume title angst.
tl;dr: The Shinsei Board dropped the ball.
My tome is now out. It has it all. Laughter, tears, hand-wringing, and Judy Blume title angst.
tl;dr: The Shinsei Board dropped the ball.
A big week in Japan buyback programme announcements:
This week:
140+ cos announcing buybacks: 3 tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks, 120 on-market buys.
Total buyback programme value announced ¥2.1trln+
Average is 7-9% of ADV. Every day during the program.
For SK subs…
This week:
140+ cos announcing buybacks: 3 tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks, 120 on-market buys.
Total buyback programme value announced ¥2.1trln+
Average is 7-9% of ADV. Every day during the program.
For SK subs…
JAPAN BUYBACKS: A Very Big Week - Travis Lundy
Almost ¥2.2trln of buybacks were announced this past week. Several large ones but 120+ different companies in total. This is the push higher for a very big year. Worth watching the data.
www.smartkarma.com
May 13, 2023 at 3:31 PM
A big week in Japan buyback programme announcements:
This week:
140+ cos announcing buybacks: 3 tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks, 120 on-market buys.
Total buyback programme value announced ¥2.1trln+
Average is 7-9% of ADV. Every day during the program.
For SK subs…
This week:
140+ cos announcing buybacks: 3 tenders, 26 ToSTNeT-3 buybacks, 120 on-market buys.
Total buyback programme value announced ¥2.1trln+
Average is 7-9% of ADV. Every day during the program.
For SK subs…
I’ll be doing a flash webinar - short and speedy - regarding the SBI (8473 JP) Tender Offer (takeover) for minorities in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) announced Friday after the close.
Anyone can sign up to listen. You don’t have to be a Smartkarma subscriber.
8:30 JST, 7:30 HKT Monday 15 May
Anyone can sign up to listen. You don’t have to be a Smartkarma subscriber.
8:30 JST, 7:30 HKT Monday 15 May
Smartkarma Flash Webinar | SBI Shinsei Privatisation by SBI Holdings - Smartkarma Research
For our this flash webinar, will be speaking to Smartkarma Insight Provider Travis Lundy on the current situation happening with SBI Shinsei Privatisation by SBI Holdings
www.smartkarma.com
May 13, 2023 at 3:18 PM
I’ll be doing a flash webinar - short and speedy - regarding the SBI (8473 JP) Tender Offer (takeover) for minorities in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) announced Friday after the close.
Anyone can sign up to listen. You don’t have to be a Smartkarma subscriber.
8:30 JST, 7:30 HKT Monday 15 May
Anyone can sign up to listen. You don’t have to be a Smartkarma subscriber.
8:30 JST, 7:30 HKT Monday 15 May
Adani Enterprises and Adani Transmission Boards approved equity offerings (Qualified Institutional Placement or similar) today.
Rs 125bn for Ent.
Rs 85bn for Trans.
Green Energy delayed its Board mtg to 24 May.
Postal ballots ensue.
Expect IHC and GQG to anchor.
Rs 125bn for Ent.
Rs 85bn for Trans.
Green Energy delayed its Board mtg to 24 May.
Postal ballots ensue.
Expect IHC and GQG to anchor.
May 13, 2023 at 3:12 PM
Adani Enterprises and Adani Transmission Boards approved equity offerings (Qualified Institutional Placement or similar) today.
Rs 125bn for Ent.
Rs 85bn for Trans.
Green Energy delayed its Board mtg to 24 May.
Postal ballots ensue.
Expect IHC and GQG to anchor.
Rs 125bn for Ent.
Rs 85bn for Trans.
Green Energy delayed its Board mtg to 24 May.
Postal ballots ensue.
Expect IHC and GQG to anchor.