Travis Lundy
@quiddity.bsky.social
Independent Investment Research
*JAPAN WANTS TO LIFT GPIF REAL INVESTMENT RETURN TARGET TO 1.9%
This means less domestic bonds, more Japan and foreign equities.
The "political angle" here is to 'force' a higher target return, more risk, with the 'political goal' being to keep the GPIF
This means less domestic bonds, more Japan and foreign equities.
The "political angle" here is to 'force' a higher target return, more risk, with the 'political goal' being to keep the GPIF
December 2, 2024 at 7:32 AM
*JAPAN WANTS TO LIFT GPIF REAL INVESTMENT RETURN TARGET TO 1.9%
This means less domestic bonds, more Japan and foreign equities.
The "political angle" here is to 'force' a higher target return, more risk, with the 'political goal' being to keep the GPIF
This means less domestic bonds, more Japan and foreign equities.
The "political angle" here is to 'force' a higher target return, more risk, with the 'political goal' being to keep the GPIF
Keisei Elec (9009 JP) is bouncing hard today on a Toyo Keizai report that noted Japanese activist Murakami-san has bought a stake (under 1%).
Keisei is getting the boot from MSCI today. A bunch of HFs who had been short are getting a nice lesson in shareholder structure risk.
Keisei is getting the boot from MSCI today. A bunch of HFs who had been short are getting a nice lesson in shareholder structure risk.
November 25, 2024 at 8:04 AM
Keisei Elec (9009 JP) is bouncing hard today on a Toyo Keizai report that noted Japanese activist Murakami-san has bought a stake (under 1%).
Keisei is getting the boot from MSCI today. A bunch of HFs who had been short are getting a nice lesson in shareholder structure risk.
Keisei is getting the boot from MSCI today. A bunch of HFs who had been short are getting a nice lesson in shareholder structure risk.
Tencent was the big net buy on the week for SOUTHBOUND. Alibaba and Xiaomi were #2 and #3.
Net buying by SOUTHBOUND in Info/Tech is decent recently, but still nothing like the froth of early 2021.
Net buying by SOUTHBOUND in Info/Tech is decent recently, but still nothing like the froth of early 2021.
November 16, 2024 at 4:09 PM
Tencent was the big net buy on the week for SOUTHBOUND. Alibaba and Xiaomi were #2 and #3.
Net buying by SOUTHBOUND in Info/Tech is decent recently, but still nothing like the froth of early 2021.
Net buying by SOUTHBOUND in Info/Tech is decent recently, but still nothing like the froth of early 2021.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND saw BIG buying this past week (previous week was big too) as HK stocks got shellacked on the week (HSI -6.3%, HSCEI -6.45%) and mainland blue chip indices were also hurt (CSI300, SSE50, SSE180 were -3.3%, -3.4%, -3.64%) and CSI 500 worse (-4.8%)
November 16, 2024 at 4:09 PM
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND saw BIG buying this past week (previous week was big too) as HK stocks got shellacked on the week (HSI -6.3%, HSCEI -6.45%) and mainland blue chip indices were also hurt (CSI300, SSE50, SSE180 were -3.3%, -3.4%, -3.64%) and CSI 500 worse (-4.8%)
One can see Sinopec (386 HK) is at its cheapest in 52 weeks (the yellow dot in the premium range section in the first table) and also at its widest in 5yrs in terms of H vs A (A premium to H highest in 5yrs)
November 16, 2024 at 4:05 PM
One can see Sinopec (386 HK) is at its cheapest in 52 weeks (the yellow dot in the premium range section in the first table) and also at its widest in 5yrs in terms of H vs A (A premium to H highest in 5yrs)
Somewhat strangely, intracorrelation of pairs is low recently (after spiking through the Sep hols) and pairwise volatility is also low (until this week).
November 16, 2024 at 4:05 PM
Somewhat strangely, intracorrelation of pairs is low recently (after spiking through the Sep hols) and pairwise volatility is also low (until this week).
The top chart below shows As have sharply outperformed Hs within their pairs recently. The second shows just how much it is on a rolling basis.
November 16, 2024 at 4:05 PM
The top chart below shows As have sharply outperformed Hs within their pairs recently. The second shows just how much it is on a rolling basis.
This past week in H-share/A-share pairs was something of a disaster.
Within the HK/mainland universe, H/A pairs saw H underperformance of 3.7% for the average liquid pair. Tech and Financials were especially hurt.
Within the HK/mainland universe, H/A pairs saw H underperformance of 3.7% for the average liquid pair. Tech and Financials were especially hurt.
November 16, 2024 at 4:05 PM
This past week in H-share/A-share pairs was something of a disaster.
Within the HK/mainland universe, H/A pairs saw H underperformance of 3.7% for the average liquid pair. Tech and Financials were especially hurt.
Within the HK/mainland universe, H/A pairs saw H underperformance of 3.7% for the average liquid pair. Tech and Financials were especially hurt.
Buying in Geely (175) has been consistent, growing, and as I remark on it, remarkable.
October 27, 2024 at 1:45 AM
Buying in Geely (175) has been consistent, growing, and as I remark on it, remarkable.
In the week to Wednesday, all sectors saw positive SOUTHBOUND inflows.
As a percentage of volume traded, net buying was pretty decent.
As a percentage of volume traded, net buying was pretty decent.
October 27, 2024 at 1:45 AM
In the week to Wednesday, all sectors saw positive SOUTHBOUND inflows.
As a percentage of volume traded, net buying was pretty decent.
As a percentage of volume traded, net buying was pretty decent.
Notes:
- Geely (175 HK) has seen huge SB inflows
- Only China Mobile (941), CNOOC (883) saw outflows.
- SB bought TCM (570) the day it crashed
- SB ignored Sunac after the offering
- GCL (3800), SMIC (981), Xiaomi (1810) seeing consistent bet buying.
- Geely (175 HK) has seen huge SB inflows
- Only China Mobile (941), CNOOC (883) saw outflows.
- SB bought TCM (570) the day it crashed
- SB ignored Sunac after the offering
- GCL (3800), SMIC (981), Xiaomi (1810) seeing consistent bet buying.
October 27, 2024 at 1:44 AM
Notes:
- Geely (175 HK) has seen huge SB inflows
- Only China Mobile (941), CNOOC (883) saw outflows.
- SB bought TCM (570) the day it crashed
- SB ignored Sunac after the offering
- GCL (3800), SMIC (981), Xiaomi (1810) seeing consistent bet buying.
- Geely (175 HK) has seen huge SB inflows
- Only China Mobile (941), CNOOC (883) saw outflows.
- SB bought TCM (570) the day it crashed
- SB ignored Sunac after the offering
- GCL (3800), SMIC (981), Xiaomi (1810) seeing consistent bet buying.
A really big week in SOUTHBOUND again.
Net buying of HK$36.5bn. Big.
Gross activity of HK$376bn, which is lower than last week and much lower than the week before.
For the first time since it became SOUTHBOUND-eligible, Alibaba was not the top buy on the week.
Net buying of HK$36.5bn. Big.
Gross activity of HK$376bn, which is lower than last week and much lower than the week before.
For the first time since it became SOUTHBOUND-eligible, Alibaba was not the top buy on the week.
October 27, 2024 at 1:44 AM
A really big week in SOUTHBOUND again.
Net buying of HK$36.5bn. Big.
Gross activity of HK$376bn, which is lower than last week and much lower than the week before.
For the first time since it became SOUTHBOUND-eligible, Alibaba was not the top buy on the week.
Net buying of HK$36.5bn. Big.
Gross activity of HK$376bn, which is lower than last week and much lower than the week before.
For the first time since it became SOUTHBOUND-eligible, Alibaba was not the top buy on the week.
Taking the data from the yuho out late Friday, my model (admittedly post-facto but it would have been similar ex-ante, and been wrong, because I expected fewer foreign holders existed) suggested max YFO support at 48.4mm shares.
I was slightly off.
They got 48.4mm shares on one vote.
I was slightly off.
They got 48.4mm shares on one vote.
July 2, 2023 at 9:46 AM
Taking the data from the yuho out late Friday, my model (admittedly post-facto but it would have been similar ex-ante, and been wrong, because I expected fewer foreign holders existed) suggested max YFO support at 48.4mm shares.
I was slightly off.
They got 48.4mm shares on one vote.
I was slightly off.
They got 48.4mm shares on one vote.
Not a single megabank is in.
Stodgy NTT is in because of its Equity Spread, but would also be in for PBR. So is KDDI and Japan Tobacco.
And Softbank Corp up 3.5% in 4.5yrs since its IPO in Dec2018 is also in for "Equity Spread". But SumiCorp (8053) +80% in the same 4.5y? Nope.
Stodgy NTT is in because of its Equity Spread, but would also be in for PBR. So is KDDI and Japan Tobacco.
And Softbank Corp up 3.5% in 4.5yrs since its IPO in Dec2018 is also in for "Equity Spread". But SumiCorp (8053) +80% in the same 4.5y? Nope.
July 2, 2023 at 8:09 AM
Not a single megabank is in.
Stodgy NTT is in because of its Equity Spread, but would also be in for PBR. So is KDDI and Japan Tobacco.
And Softbank Corp up 3.5% in 4.5yrs since its IPO in Dec2018 is also in for "Equity Spread". But SumiCorp (8053) +80% in the same 4.5y? Nope.
Stodgy NTT is in because of its Equity Spread, but would also be in for PBR. So is KDDI and Japan Tobacco.
And Softbank Corp up 3.5% in 4.5yrs since its IPO in Dec2018 is also in for "Equity Spread". But SumiCorp (8053) +80% in the same 4.5y? Nope.
Below, chart and table of JPXI reconstructed over last 7mos if current index is walked back over time.
July 2, 2023 at 8:07 AM
Below, chart and table of JPXI reconstructed over last 7mos if current index is walked back over time.
It means 14% total turnover. Comms can be small, but at 3% overall market impact for inclusions vs exclusions, that is 48bp a year. That erases all the historical outperformance. It averages 15.7 names changed a year the last 9 years. That is like S&P500 adding and deleting 19 names a quarter.
July 2, 2023 at 7:57 AM
It means 14% total turnover. Comms can be small, but at 3% overall market impact for inclusions vs exclusions, that is 48bp a year. That erases all the historical outperformance. It averages 15.7 names changed a year the last 9 years. That is like S&P500 adding and deleting 19 names a quarter.
This new index JPX Prime 150 positions itself as an index of winners. Indeed, when they launched the index with full details on 26 May, they presented a chart which showed that over 10yrs or so, JPX Prime 150 outperformed TOPIX by about 4-5% (we don't have legacy data yet).
July 2, 2023 at 7:48 AM
This new index JPX Prime 150 positions itself as an index of winners. Indeed, when they launched the index with full details on 26 May, they presented a chart which showed that over 10yrs or so, JPX Prime 150 outperformed TOPIX by about 4-5% (we don't have legacy data yet).
Going to start putting stuff here as well as that other place just because.
Jamie (@JamieHalse) runs a great Japan fund and knows a lot about Japan. I am going to comment on this new JPX Prime 150 (JPXI) index with some disagreement.
Yes, JPXI is designed to showcase "blue chips" in Japan which
Jamie (@JamieHalse) runs a great Japan fund and knows a lot about Japan. I am going to comment on this new JPX Prime 150 (JPXI) index with some disagreement.
Yes, JPXI is designed to showcase "blue chips" in Japan which
July 2, 2023 at 7:39 AM
Going to start putting stuff here as well as that other place just because.
Jamie (@JamieHalse) runs a great Japan fund and knows a lot about Japan. I am going to comment on this new JPX Prime 150 (JPXI) index with some disagreement.
Yes, JPXI is designed to showcase "blue chips" in Japan which
Jamie (@JamieHalse) runs a great Japan fund and knows a lot about Japan. I am going to comment on this new JPX Prime 150 (JPXI) index with some disagreement.
Yes, JPXI is designed to showcase "blue chips" in Japan which
Trying a gif as a photo
May 16, 2023 at 4:53 PM
Trying a gif as a photo
Bank of Kyoto has been "pricier" vs peers and its own "discount to After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV)" (which I model real-time every day) but not consistently since 2015.
April 30, 2023 at 12:21 PM
Bank of Kyoto has been "pricier" vs peers and its own "discount to After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV)" (which I model real-time every day) but not consistently since 2015.