profspur
@profspur.bsky.social
I write the Profspur Analysis newsletter https://profspur.substack.com
Pinned
Spurs are Riding Their Luck
A look at the underlying numbers 15 games into the 2025-26 season.
profspur.substack.com
New from me: We're riding our luck. I break down what what it means to be 'lucky' in statistical terms so far. profspur.substack.com/p/spurs-are-...
Well after adjustments this turned out to be wrong. Yet another xG 'loss.'
November 27, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Well after adjustments this turned out to be wrong. Yet another xG 'loss.'
As I've said, 'risk' vs. 'pragmatism' is a terrible way to frame and understand whether a manager has good tactical ideas and the nature of their tactical ideas, but it's not a bad way to frame and understand whether executive leadership have good ideas about how to develop a football club.
November 27, 2025 at 1:05 PM
As I've said, 'risk' vs. 'pragmatism' is a terrible way to frame and understand whether a manager has good tactical ideas and the nature of their tactical ideas, but it's not a bad way to frame and understand whether executive leadership have good ideas about how to develop a football club.
A consequence of the Premier League getting more competitive, particularly with post-Covid financial developments in world football, is that fans are overcorrecting from 'well actually [traditionally lower / mid-table side] are no easy game] to 'we shouldn't expect Spurs to control this game.'
November 27, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A consequence of the Premier League getting more competitive, particularly with post-Covid financial developments in world football, is that fans are overcorrecting from 'well actually [traditionally lower / mid-table side] are no easy game] to 'we shouldn't expect Spurs to control this game.'
I usually say 'US American' (USian is fine), but 'American' to describe the US is wrong and stupid, because the Americas are not reducible to the US.
I’ve used USian and American interchangeably for many years. Two decades.
I am USian. I don’t regard it as derogatory.
I don’t care if you don’t use it. Don’t use it if you don’t want.
But please stop trying to say my use means things it does not.
I am USian. I don’t regard it as derogatory.
I don’t care if you don’t use it. Don’t use it if you don’t want.
But please stop trying to say my use means things it does not.
November 27, 2025 at 9:41 AM
I usually say 'US American' (USian is fine), but 'American' to describe the US is wrong and stupid, because the Americas are not reducible to the US.
Perverse to say this after the week we've had, but we actually outgunned them on xG, which I think reflects some intent to play foot ball.
November 26, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Perverse to say this after the week we've had, but we actually outgunned them on xG, which I think reflects some intent to play foot ball.
From 'he's gone down very very dramatically' to 'potential red card check going on' because you're a troll instead of a match commentator.
November 26, 2025 at 9:53 PM
From 'he's gone down very very dramatically' to 'potential red card check going on' because you're a troll instead of a match commentator.
This match comm is the biggest wanker, like Ekoku levels. 'This is a big step up for them.' Just trolling on air.
November 26, 2025 at 9:47 PM
This match comm is the biggest wanker, like Ekoku levels. 'This is a big step up for them.' Just trolling on air.
GK on his horse for that one.
November 26, 2025 at 9:43 PM
GK on his horse for that one.
Idiot that this kind of thing would ever be a penalty. Shot from point blank and it's the only way a human being can lunge to block the ball. The arm will always go into that kind of position. Pinging it at an arm is not worth a pen.
November 26, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Idiot that this kind of thing would ever be a penalty. Shot from point blank and it's the only way a human being can lunge to block the ball. The arm will always go into that kind of position. Pinging it at an arm is not worth a pen.
Let's fucking go, let's get something out of this. Fuck these match comms and fuck PSG.
November 26, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Let's fucking go, let's get something out of this. Fuck these match comms and fuck PSG.
Not a foul. He sat down.
November 26, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Not a foul. He sat down.
'How very spursy' how about fuck you?
November 26, 2025 at 9:22 PM
'How very spursy' how about fuck you?
I hate this week man
November 26, 2025 at 9:21 PM
I hate this week man
Stop it!
A bit non-responsive prof. I bet it’s Vitinha with a 2nd instead of Lee.
November 26, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Stop it!
Absolutely:
It’s not just about the lineup or the formation. The encouraging thing is we’ve seen a reaction from Sunday
November 26, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Absolutely:
Match comms stay not telling the difference between Sarr and Kolo Muani
November 26, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Match comms stay not telling the difference between Sarr and Kolo Muani
Not to be an asshole but we've seen this show before. Putting 9 behind the ball and daring virtually anyone in this PSG squad to shoot from distance is not gonna do it. They will fucking score if you don't possess the ball and try to gain some territory.
November 26, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Not to be an asshole but we've seen this show before. Putting 9 behind the ball and daring virtually anyone in this PSG squad to shoot from distance is not gonna do it. They will fucking score if you don't possess the ball and try to gain some territory.
This kind of performance is basically all it takes for 80% of football punditry to think you're tactically astute. You get another 15% of them just by gesticulating a lot on the touchline. You lose 98% of them by not going into tactical minutiae in pressers.
November 26, 2025 at 2:39 PM
This kind of performance is basically all it takes for 80% of football punditry to think you're tactically astute. You get another 15% of them just by gesticulating a lot on the touchline. You lose 98% of them by not going into tactical minutiae in pressers.
For the first time in recent memory I don't feel emotionally recovered from the last Spurs match in time for the next one.
November 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
For the first time in recent memory I don't feel emotionally recovered from the last Spurs match in time for the next one.
FWIW I think ‘taking risk’ is the wrong framework. It just reinforces the fallacy that ‘defensive solidity’ means having little of the ball and everyone behind it. It’s not about risk so much as having in-possession ideas to complement OOP ideas.
November 26, 2025 at 8:29 AM
FWIW I think ‘taking risk’ is the wrong framework. It just reinforces the fallacy that ‘defensive solidity’ means having little of the ball and everyone behind it. It’s not about risk so much as having in-possession ideas to complement OOP ideas.
Why is Frank causing our players to be injured?
November 25, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Why is Frank causing our players to be injured?
People will say anything.
November 25, 2025 at 7:24 PM
People will say anything.
I have to confess that I’ve been unwilling to admit to myself the obvious truth—that Dewsbury-Hall is an outstanding footballer—simply because as a US American I find his name hilariously plausible as a location in a Jane Austen novel.
November 25, 2025 at 1:26 PM
I have to confess that I’ve been unwilling to admit to myself the obvious truth—that Dewsbury-Hall is an outstanding footballer—simply because as a US American I find his name hilariously plausible as a location in a Jane Austen novel.