Philipp Maier
@pmaier1971.bsky.social
Economic data releases and news, automated with R.
Data from http://fred.stlouisfed.org.
Code/details: http://whyitmatters.netlify.app
All views and errors are mine.
Data from http://fred.stlouisfed.org.
Code/details: http://whyitmatters.netlify.app
All views and errors are mine.
At the end of this week, the GDPNow forecast from the Altanta Fed for Q3 2025 stands at at 3.98%. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for GDP growth projecting 13 GDP subcomponents with monthly source data, a factor model and a BVAR. #econsky
November 15, 2025 at 1:15 PM
At the end of this week, the GDPNow forecast from the Altanta Fed for Q3 2025 stands at at 3.98%. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for GDP growth projecting 13 GDP subcomponents with monthly source data, a factor model and a BVAR. #econsky
The average rate on a U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming #mortgage on 13 November was at 6.215%. Relative to the prior week, the rate has fallen by about -0.04 p.p. #mortgagerates #econsky
November 15, 2025 at 1:15 PM
The average rate on a U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming #mortgage on 13 November was at 6.215%. Relative to the prior week, the rate has fallen by about -0.04 p.p. #mortgagerates #econsky
5Y Breakeven Inflation Rate at 2.37%, up from 2.36% last week; 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.28%. Breakeven inflation uses the difference between Constant Maturity and Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Treasuries to calculate market expectations #inflation #econsky.
November 14, 2025 at 9:51 PM
5Y Breakeven Inflation Rate at 2.37%, up from 2.36% last week; 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.28%. Breakeven inflation uses the difference between Constant Maturity and Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Treasuries to calculate market expectations #inflation #econsky.
10Y #Treasury is at 4.11%, up from 4.08% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf
November 14, 2025 at 9:51 PM
10Y #Treasury is at 4.11%, up from 4.08% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf
The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.3165 USD/GBP last week (07 November). Relative to a month ago, this is -1.3% lower. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has risen by 2% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky
November 14, 2025 at 1:15 PM
The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.3165 USD/GBP last week (07 November). Relative to a month ago, this is -1.3% lower. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has risen by 2% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky
Last week (07 November) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.1578 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is a decrease of approx. -0.3%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about 8.1% higher. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky
November 14, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Last week (07 November) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.1578 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is a decrease of approx. -0.3%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about 8.1% higher. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky
Transportation indices are volatile, but can serve as leading indicator. In Sep 2025 the Passenger Transportation Services Index stood at 136.2; the Freight Transportation Index stood at 123.7 in Sep 2025 #econsky Details: https://rb.gy/ws6csr
November 13, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Transportation indices are volatile, but can serve as leading indicator. In Sep 2025 the Passenger Transportation Services Index stood at 136.2; the Freight Transportation Index stood at 123.7 in Sep 2025 #econsky Details: https://rb.gy/ws6csr
The Truck Tonnage Index fell by -0.87% in Sep 2025. Trucking is a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing over 70% of tonnage carried (incl. manufactured and retail goods). The index is dominated by contract freight with minimal amounts of spot market loads #econsky
November 13, 2025 at 9:53 PM
The Truck Tonnage Index fell by -0.87% in Sep 2025. Trucking is a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing over 70% of tonnage carried (incl. manufactured and retail goods). The index is dominated by contract freight with minimal amounts of spot market loads #econsky
Transportation Update: Rail Freight Intermodal Traffic. Intermodal refers to transportation of freight in an intermodal container or vehicle, using multiple modes of transportation (e.g., rail, ship, truck), without any handling of the freight itself when changing modes. #econsky
November 13, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Transportation Update: Rail Freight Intermodal Traffic. Intermodal refers to transportation of freight in an intermodal container or vehicle, using multiple modes of transportation (e.g., rail, ship, truck), without any handling of the freight itself when changing modes. #econsky
The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index in Nov 2025 came in at -0.53, down from -0.53 the prior month.Negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average. #econsky
November 13, 2025 at 9:53 PM
The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index in Nov 2025 came in at -0.53, down from -0.53 the prior month.Negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average. #econsky
Average US 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage last week at 6.24%, up 0.02 p.p. from prior week. 5/1 ARM at 6.1% #mortgage #househunters #econsky
November 13, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Average US 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage last week at 6.24%, up 0.02 p.p. from prior week. 5/1 ARM at 6.1% #mortgage #househunters #econsky
The Cass Freight Index for Oct 2025 at 0.997. The prior month value was 1.042. This monthly indicator measures freight expenditures and shipments #econsky
November 13, 2025 at 9:51 PM
The Cass Freight Index for Oct 2025 at 0.997. The prior month value was 1.042. This monthly indicator measures freight expenditures and shipments #econsky
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 07 Nov #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
November 13, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 07 Nov #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
Uncertainty Update: VIX at 17.28; 7-day average of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at 408.5, up 5.9 from the prior week #vix #MarketVolatility #econsky https://tinyurl.com/3bvx9f5m
November 12, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Uncertainty Update: VIX at 17.28; 7-day average of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at 408.5, up 5.9 from the prior week #vix #MarketVolatility #econsky https://tinyurl.com/3bvx9f5m