Philipp Maier
@pmaier1971.bsky.social
Economic data releases and news, automated with R.
Data from http://fred.stlouisfed.org.
Code/details: http://whyitmatters.netlify.app
All views and errors are mine.
Data from http://fred.stlouisfed.org.
Code/details: http://whyitmatters.netlify.app
All views and errors are mine.
At the end of this week, the GDPNow forecast from the Altanta Fed for Q3 2025 stands at at 4.23%. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for GDP growth projecting 13 GDP subcomponents with monthly source data, a factor model and a BVAR. #econsky
November 22, 2025 at 1:15 PM
At the end of this week, the GDPNow forecast from the Altanta Fed for Q3 2025 stands at at 4.23%. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for GDP growth projecting 13 GDP subcomponents with monthly source data, a factor model and a BVAR. #econsky
The average rate on a U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming #mortgage on 20 November was at 6.236%. Relative to the prior week, the rate has increased by about 0.05 p.p. #mortgagerates #econsky
November 22, 2025 at 1:15 PM
The average rate on a U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming #mortgage on 20 November was at 6.236%. Relative to the prior week, the rate has increased by about 0.05 p.p. #mortgagerates #econsky
5Y Breakeven Inflation Rate at 2.34%, down from 2.38% last week; 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.24%. Breakeven inflation uses the difference between Constant Maturity and Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Treasuries to calculate market expectations #inflation #econsky.
November 21, 2025 at 9:51 PM
5Y Breakeven Inflation Rate at 2.34%, down from 2.38% last week; 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.24%. Breakeven inflation uses the difference between Constant Maturity and Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Treasuries to calculate market expectations #inflation #econsky.
10Y #Treasury is at 4.1%, down from 4.13% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf
November 21, 2025 at 9:51 PM
10Y #Treasury is at 4.1%, down from 4.13% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf
#CreditCard delinquency rate in Jul 2025 at 2.98%, above pre-pandemic levels of 2.69%. Chart shows #delinquency rates for all Banks across loan categories #econsky
November 21, 2025 at 2:09 PM
#CreditCard delinquency rate in Jul 2025 at 2.98%, above pre-pandemic levels of 2.69%. Chart shows #delinquency rates for all Banks across loan categories #econsky
The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.3156 USD/GBP last week (14 November). Relative to a month ago, this is -2% lower. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has risen by 4.2% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky
November 21, 2025 at 1:15 PM
The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.3156 USD/GBP last week (14 November). Relative to a month ago, this is -2% lower. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has risen by 4.2% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky
Last week (14 November) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.1617 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is a decrease of approx. -0.5%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about 10.1% higher. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky
November 21, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Last week (14 November) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.1617 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is a decrease of approx. -0.5%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about 10.1% higher. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 14 Nov #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
November 20, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 14 Nov #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
Labor Force Flows: 6883K re-enter the labor force in Sep 2025, up 146K from prior month. 1712K unemployed exit the labor force in Sep 2025, up 24K from prior month #econsky
November 20, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Labor Force Flows: 6883K re-enter the labor force in Sep 2025, up 146K from prior month. 1712K unemployed exit the labor force in Sep 2025, up 24K from prior month #econsky
#Payroll Update: Details behind the topline number #LaborMarket #econsky
November 20, 2025 at 2:52 PM
#Payroll Update: Details behind the topline number #LaborMarket #econsky
#Unemployment rate in Sep 2025 at 4.4%, up 0.1; participation rate (share of working age population in the labor force) at 62.4, up 0.1 from prior month #econsky
November 20, 2025 at 2:52 PM
#Unemployment rate in Sep 2025 at 4.4%, up 0.1; participation rate (share of working age population in the labor force) at 62.4, up 0.1 from prior month #econsky
#Payroll Update: Comparing the current #Recovery of the #LaborMarket to previous recessions #econsky
November 20, 2025 at 2:52 PM
#Payroll Update: Comparing the current #Recovery of the #LaborMarket to previous recessions #econsky
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey: % firms report increased delivery times at -4.3, down -10.9 p.p. from last month #supplychain #econsky https://tinyurl.com/bdfwtvvj
November 20, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey: % firms report increased delivery times at -4.3, down -10.9 p.p. from last month #supplychain #econsky https://tinyurl.com/bdfwtvvj
US Trade Balance for Aug 2025 came in at $-59.5B. In Jul 2025 the trade balance stood at -78.2B. Narrower trade deficits are a lift for GDP growth #econsky
November 19, 2025 at 9:51 PM
US Trade Balance for Aug 2025 came in at $-59.5B. In Jul 2025 the trade balance stood at -78.2B. Narrower trade deficits are a lift for GDP growth #econsky