Peter Ellis
@pjie2.bsky.social
Father, husband, scientist, singer. Prone to getting over-excited about nerdy stuff in public. He/him.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
That's my entire take on Bond. I vaguely enjoy some of the films but don't really care either way. But I do think the obsession with keeping continuity in film series has utterly destroyed any sense of focusing on telling the story of that one particular film being made.
November 11, 2025 at 11:32 AM
That's my entire take on Bond. I vaguely enjoy some of the films but don't really care either way. But I do think the obsession with keeping continuity in film series has utterly destroyed any sense of focusing on telling the story of that one particular film being made.
If you do that you correctly conclude that there is no such thing as a hot hand and that successive flips are uncorrelated.
If you screw it up, then you mistakenly conclude you’re LESS likely to throw a head if you’re already on a streak.
If you screw it up, then you mistakenly conclude you’re LESS likely to throw a head if you’re already on a streak.
November 10, 2025 at 2:07 PM
If you do that you correctly conclude that there is no such thing as a hot hand and that successive flips are uncorrelated.
If you screw it up, then you mistakenly conclude you’re LESS likely to throw a head if you’re already on a streak.
If you screw it up, then you mistakenly conclude you’re LESS likely to throw a head if you’re already on a streak.
Isn’t this just a case of combining the data wrong? You have six studies that counted coin flips. Four of them had n=1 flip counted, while two of them had n=2 flips counted.
When taking the average you should weight by sample size, so the two streaks with more coins counted should count double.
When taking the average you should weight by sample size, so the two streaks with more coins counted should count double.
November 10, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Isn’t this just a case of combining the data wrong? You have six studies that counted coin flips. Four of them had n=1 flip counted, while two of them had n=2 flips counted.
When taking the average you should weight by sample size, so the two streaks with more coins counted should count double.
When taking the average you should weight by sample size, so the two streaks with more coins counted should count double.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Agreed with the proviso that slippery slope arguments very much do arise at the level of ‘what constitutes a disease’
November 8, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Agreed with the proviso that slippery slope arguments very much do arise at the level of ‘what constitutes a disease’