Phil Smith
@philsmith26.bsky.social
Canadian economist and statistician. https://linktr.ee/philsmith26
Many Canadian economists worry about our real GDP growth relative to the US counterpart over the last decade (often in per capita terms) while also worrying about Canada's federal deficits being too big. But you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Huge US deficits have been hugely stimulative.
November 13, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Many Canadian economists worry about our real GDP growth relative to the US counterpart over the last decade (often in per capita terms) while also worrying about Canada's federal deficits being too big. But you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Huge US deficits have been hugely stimulative.
Our Canadian oligarchs are getting older as well as richer and more numerous. Their median age was 60, their median income was $5,366,400 and the threshold income for entry into the top 0.01% of tax filers was $3,487,600 in 2023. They had 1.3% of total income and paid 3.0% of income taxes. #cdnecon
November 9, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Our Canadian oligarchs are getting older as well as richer and more numerous. Their median age was 60, their median income was $5,366,400 and the threshold income for entry into the top 0.01% of tax filers was $3,487,600 in 2023. They had 1.3% of total income and paid 3.0% of income taxes. #cdnecon
Canada's LFS full-time employment has been growing well below its post-pandemic trend line this year. For the 55+ age group, growth stopped in 2024. Private sector employment weakened first, but lately public sector growth has slackened too. Self-employment has dipped only in the last three months.
November 8, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Canada's LFS full-time employment has been growing well below its post-pandemic trend line this year. For the 55+ age group, growth stopped in 2024. Private sector employment weakened first, but lately public sector growth has slackened too. Self-employment has dipped only in the last three months.
Here's an update to my set of 100 Canadian monthly economic indicator charts. #cdnecon
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
November 6, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Here's an update to my set of 100 Canadian monthly economic indicator charts. #cdnecon
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
Today's release from Rentals.ca indicates average asking rents continued to fall in October. A good sign for the "affordability" problem. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Today's release from Rentals.ca indicates average asking rents continued to fall in October. A good sign for the "affordability" problem. #cdnecon
Here are average disposable household incomes by province in 2024, calculated using the provincial economic accounts released by StatCan today. Median incomes, which are substantially lower, must be calculated with income tax data that are not yet available for 2024. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Here are average disposable household incomes by province in 2024, calculated using the provincial economic accounts released by StatCan today. Median incomes, which are substantially lower, must be calculated with income tax data that are not yet available for 2024. #cdnecon
StatCan released provincial economic accounts data for 2024 today. Here are some international and interprovincial trade estimates, and some business investment statistics, that set the standard from which government policy in 2025 is trying to depart. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 2:24 PM
StatCan released provincial economic accounts data for 2024 today. Here are some international and interprovincial trade estimates, and some business investment statistics, that set the standard from which government policy in 2025 is trying to depart. #cdnecon
Here's a look at almost-five-year salaried employment trends in Canada's four big provinces, from SEPH. The picture has been generally weak starting in 2024, with Alberta doing the best of the four. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Here's a look at almost-five-year salaried employment trends in Canada's four big provinces, from SEPH. The picture has been generally weak starting in 2024, with Alberta doing the best of the four. #cdnecon
SEPH-based employment growth has been relatively slow over the last 2-3 years. It increased just 1.9%, seasonally adjusted, between January 2023 and August 2025. But one standout industry has been child day-care services, jumping 20.8% over this same period and still soaring. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 7:01 PM
SEPH-based employment growth has been relatively slow over the last 2-3 years. It increased just 1.9%, seasonally adjusted, between January 2023 and August 2025. But one standout industry has been child day-care services, jumping 20.8% over this same period and still soaring. #cdnecon
SEPH's standard work week for salaried employees has proven itself to be a good cyclical indicator. It has been on a downward trend since April 2024. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 6:50 PM
SEPH's standard work week for salaried employees has proven itself to be a good cyclical indicator. It has been on a downward trend since April 2024. #cdnecon
The SEPH data for August, when combined with the CPI data, indicate real fixed-weight average hourly earnings increased 1.0% over the last 12 months, continuing the long span of increases seen since January 2024. The cumulative rise over those 20 months is 4.1% (seasonally adjusted). #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 6:38 PM
The SEPH data for August, when combined with the CPI data, indicate real fixed-weight average hourly earnings increased 1.0% over the last 12 months, continuing the long span of increases seen since January 2024. The cumulative rise over those 20 months is 4.1% (seasonally adjusted). #cdnecon
SEPH payroll data for August, released today by StatCan, indicate total Canadian employment income rose 3.1% compared to August 2024, reflecting a 3.7% advance in average hourly earnings, a 0.2% rise in employment and a 0.7% drop in average hours worked per week. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 6:29 PM
SEPH payroll data for August, released today by StatCan, indicate total Canadian employment income rose 3.1% compared to August 2024, reflecting a 3.7% advance in average hourly earnings, a 0.2% rise in employment and a 0.7% drop in average hours worked per week. #cdnecon
The overall balance can be traced in either account.
The same is true for a nation's current and financial accounts. The table shows Canada's accounts for transactions vis-a-vis the US, half-yearly from 2022 H1 to 2025 H1. The accounts are very interesting, but the
The same is true for a nation's current and financial accounts. The table shows Canada's accounts for transactions vis-a-vis the US, half-yearly from 2022 H1 to 2025 H1. The accounts are very interesting, but the
October 25, 2025 at 8:51 PM
The overall balance can be traced in either account.
The same is true for a nation's current and financial accounts. The table shows Canada's accounts for transactions vis-a-vis the US, half-yearly from 2022 H1 to 2025 H1. The accounts are very interesting, but the
The same is true for a nation's current and financial accounts. The table shows Canada's accounts for transactions vis-a-vis the US, half-yearly from 2022 H1 to 2025 H1. The accounts are very interesting, but the
In 2025 Q2, Canada's major sectors - households, corporations and governments - were all net borrowers and non-residents supplied the offsetting loans and investments. In the U.S. the federal government was a huge net borrower, while households, corporations and non-residents supplied the savings.
October 25, 2025 at 6:15 PM
In 2025 Q2, Canada's major sectors - households, corporations and governments - were all net borrowers and non-residents supplied the offsetting loans and investments. In the U.S. the federal government was a huge net borrower, while households, corporations and non-residents supplied the savings.
Here's a selection of price changes from Statistics Canada's CPI release today. Overall inflation is up compared to August, but still within the 1-3% target range, while core inflation very slightly exceeds that range. #cdnecon
October 21, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Here's a selection of price changes from Statistics Canada's CPI release today. Overall inflation is up compared to August, but still within the 1-3% target range, while core inflation very slightly exceeds that range. #cdnecon
Data released by Statistics Canada today for August, after seasonal adjustment, suggest new motor vehicle unit sales might have levelled off this year, although that remains uncertain. They remain well short of the previous peak level in 2017. #cdnecon
October 15, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Data released by Statistics Canada today for August, after seasonal adjustment, suggest new motor vehicle unit sales might have levelled off this year, although that remains uncertain. They remain well short of the previous peak level in 2017. #cdnecon
StatCan released building permits data for August today. The growth in residential permits, under way since the spring of 2024, continues but has a long way to go to reach the government's 500,000 housing starts-a-year target. Non-residential permits remain flat, which is discouraging. #cdnecon
October 14, 2025 at 1:01 PM
StatCan released building permits data for August today. The growth in residential permits, under way since the spring of 2024, continues but has a long way to go to reach the government's 500,000 housing starts-a-year target. Non-residential permits remain flat, which is discouraging. #cdnecon
Raw material prices are quite volatile. Over the 12 months to August manufacturers have seen a substantial drop in crude oil, some grains, and nickel and radioactive ore prices. But prices are up a lot for most non-ferrous metals, potash and live animals other than poultry. #cdnecon
October 14, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Raw material prices are quite volatile. Over the 12 months to August manufacturers have seen a substantial drop in crude oil, some grains, and nickel and radioactive ore prices. But prices are up a lot for most non-ferrous metals, potash and live animals other than poultry. #cdnecon
Urban transit dropped sharply during the pandemic and has been slow to recover. Passenger trips have flattened out over the past year-and-a-half despite some return-to-the-office mandates and remain below the pre-pandemic level. But revenues have been trending up due to higher fares. #cdnecon
October 14, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Urban transit dropped sharply during the pandemic and has been slow to recover. Passenger trips have flattened out over the past year-and-a-half despite some return-to-the-office mandates and remain below the pre-pandemic level. But revenues have been trending up due to higher fares. #cdnecon
Canadian travel to the US plunged in the spring and has levelled off in the last three months. There were 3 million cross-border trips in January but the number averaged only 2.3 million between May and July. #cdnecon
October 14, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Canadian travel to the US plunged in the spring and has levelled off in the last three months. There were 3 million cross-border trips in January but the number averaged only 2.3 million between May and July. #cdnecon
Here's an update to my set of 100 Canadian macroeconomic indicator charts. #cdnecon
philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
October 13, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Here's an update to my set of 100 Canadian macroeconomic indicator charts. #cdnecon
philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
Here's how corporate insolvencies compare to small business and consumer insolvencies. All three are showing no great cause for concern as of August. #cdnecon
October 13, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Here's how corporate insolvencies compare to small business and consumer insolvencies. All three are showing no great cause for concern as of August. #cdnecon
Corporate insolvencies in Canada have come down quite a lot since their peak at 641 in January 2024. They were just 248 in August. #cdnecon
October 13, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Corporate insolvencies in Canada have come down quite a lot since their peak at 641 in January 2024. They were just 248 in August. #cdnecon