Phil Smith
@philsmith26.bsky.social
Canadian economist and statistician. https://linktr.ee/philsmith26
Pinned
Phil Smith
@philsmith26.bsky.social
· Sep 10
Real GDP per capita vs real HDI per capita since 2019
Why have they evolved so differently? What are the implications?
substack.com
I invite you to read my latest Substack paper about three alternative summary indicators of economic welfare. #cdnecon substack.com/home/post/p-...
The preferred way to compare government budgets over a long period of time is as percentages of GDP. But when long GDP time series are not readily at hand, using logarithms works reasonably well. #cdnecon
December 26, 2025 at 8:42 PM
The preferred way to compare government budgets over a long period of time is as percentages of GDP. But when long GDP time series are not readily at hand, using logarithms works reasonably well. #cdnecon
If you are interested in this kind of thing, I invite you to read my latest substack release on seasonality in Canada's CPI. philip635.substack.com/p/the-import...
The importance of seasonality in Canada's consumer price index
It matters more than you might think
philip635.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 3:39 PM
If you are interested in this kind of thing, I invite you to read my latest substack release on seasonality in Canada's CPI. philip635.substack.com/p/the-import...
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in the US reached another low point in December as households held expectations of higher inflation and rising unemployment in 2026. The index was 33% below its December 2024 level. #usecon
December 21, 2025 at 1:53 PM
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in the US reached another low point in December as households held expectations of higher inflation and rising unemployment in 2026. The index was 33% below its December 2024 level. #usecon
This is wise. From The Functionary, by Kathryn May at 44615331.hs-sites.com/downsizing
December 20, 2025 at 2:48 AM
This is wise. From The Functionary, by Kathryn May at 44615331.hs-sites.com/downsizing
For those interested, my national accounts browser is now up-to-date with the revisions and latest quarterly data. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/Flexible-tab...
December 19, 2025 at 10:21 PM
For those interested, my national accounts browser is now up-to-date with the revisions and latest quarterly data. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/Flexible-tab...
Canadian new housing prices have been on a slow declining trend since the summer of 2022, based on Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index. They were unchanged from the previous month in November. #cdnecon
December 19, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Canadian new housing prices have been on a slow declining trend since the summer of 2022, based on Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index. They were unchanged from the previous month in November. #cdnecon
Employment has not changed much this year, according to the payroll survey. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/
December 18, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Employment has not changed much this year, according to the payroll survey. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/
With the 3rd quarter population decrease factored in plus the national accounts upward revisions to GDP announced 2-3 weeks ago, the picture looks a bit brighter for the real-GDP-per-capita ratio many have been concerned about. The ratio has been trending up again since the end of 2023. #cdnecon
December 17, 2025 at 2:58 PM
With the 3rd quarter population decrease factored in plus the national accounts upward revisions to GDP announced 2-3 weeks ago, the picture looks a bit brighter for the real-GDP-per-capita ratio many have been concerned about. The ratio has been trending up again since the end of 2023. #cdnecon
This morning Statistics Canada reported an unprecedented -0.2% decrease in Canada's population in the third quarter of 2025. The drop was 76,068 people, leaving the population standing at 41,575,585 on October 1, 2025. #cdnecon
December 17, 2025 at 2:02 PM
This morning Statistics Canada reported an unprecedented -0.2% decrease in Canada's population in the third quarter of 2025. The drop was 76,068 people, leaving the population standing at 41,575,585 on October 1, 2025. #cdnecon
StatCan data for Oct indicate urban transit passenger trips have been edging down marginally though associated own-source revenues have been trending up due to fare increases. Trips remain below the pre-pandemic level in most parts of Canada except the Atlantic region, perhaps due to work-from-home.
December 16, 2025 at 2:37 PM
StatCan data for Oct indicate urban transit passenger trips have been edging down marginally though associated own-source revenues have been trending up due to fare increases. Trips remain below the pre-pandemic level in most parts of Canada except the Atlantic region, perhaps due to work-from-home.
On Dec. 12, Statistics Canada released a preliminary estimate of the national poverty rate in 2024. It was 10.9%, the same as in 2023. The Canada Child Benefit introduced by Parliament in 2016 brought the rate down considerably. The pandemic and weak growth thereafter brought it back up. #cdnecon
December 16, 2025 at 3:20 AM
On Dec. 12, Statistics Canada released a preliminary estimate of the national poverty rate in 2024. It was 10.9%, the same as in 2023. The Canada Child Benefit introduced by Parliament in 2016 brought the rate down considerably. The pandemic and weak growth thereafter brought it back up. #cdnecon
Statistics Canada released October data for new motor vehicle sales today and there was little change from the pattern in the previous five months. #cdnecon
December 12, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Statistics Canada released October data for new motor vehicle sales today and there was little change from the pattern in the previous five months. #cdnecon
This chart shows how the distribution of price changes across 184 unique (unweighted) CPI product categories has evolved since 2021. The inflation surge is evident between late 2021 and Jan 2024, as is a smaller over-correction relative to the 2% target until the spring of 2025. #cdnecon
December 7, 2025 at 8:51 PM
This chart shows how the distribution of price changes across 184 unique (unweighted) CPI product categories has evolved since 2021. The inflation surge is evident between late 2021 and Jan 2024, as is a smaller over-correction relative to the 2% target until the spring of 2025. #cdnecon
LFS and SEPH are very different surveys as explained in the chart footnote. But adjusting for the differences shows that LFS has been presenting a much more robust picture for employment since the pandemic. We have no SEPH data yet beyond Sept, but the LFS surge in Nov should be received cautiously.
December 6, 2025 at 4:50 PM
LFS and SEPH are very different surveys as explained in the chart footnote. But adjusting for the differences shows that LFS has been presenting a much more robust picture for employment since the pandemic. We have no SEPH data yet beyond Sept, but the LFS surge in Nov should be received cautiously.
Comparing LFS employment in 2025 with 2022-2024 linear trends shows a substantial growth slowdown in full-time work for people aged 25 and over. Part-time jobs and youth employment remain on trend. The private sector slowing began in mid 2024 and in the public sector it started more recently.
December 6, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Comparing LFS employment in 2025 with 2022-2024 linear trends shows a substantial growth slowdown in full-time work for people aged 25 and over. Part-time jobs and youth employment remain on trend. The private sector slowing began in mid 2024 and in the public sector it started more recently.
Between 2021 and 2024 real final domestic demand grew at a 2.4% compound annual rate and real final total demand rose at a 2.8% rate. Through three quarters in 2025 the former has grown at a 0.9% rate and the latter at a -1.1% rate. Total aggregate demand is falling and that's not good. #cdnecon
December 6, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Between 2021 and 2024 real final domestic demand grew at a 2.4% compound annual rate and real final total demand rose at a 2.8% rate. Through three quarters in 2025 the former has grown at a 0.9% rate and the latter at a -1.1% rate. Total aggregate demand is falling and that's not good. #cdnecon
Total employment compensation, making up well over half of GDP, was up 4.8% in the twelve months to November 2025 according to today's LFS release. The increase reflected a 3.6% rise in average hourly earnings, a 1.7% advance in employment and a -0.6% decrease in average hours worked per employee.
December 5, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Total employment compensation, making up well over half of GDP, was up 4.8% in the twelve months to November 2025 according to today's LFS release. The increase reflected a 3.6% rise in average hourly earnings, a 1.7% advance in employment and a -0.6% decrease in average hours worked per employee.
Youth unemployment in Canada, after rising steadily for many months, was down 6.5% on a 12-month change basis in November. LFS details in my browser at: philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/LFStables/
December 5, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Youth unemployment in Canada, after rising steadily for many months, was down 6.5% on a 12-month change basis in November. LFS details in my browser at: philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/LFStables/
With much concern about food affordability of late, the CPI recorded a 12-month increase of 3.4% in October. The product groups with the biggest increases were coffee/tea (22%), beef (16.8%), nuts/seeds (9.3%), infant formula (5.9%) and sugar/confectionary (5.4%).
December 2, 2025 at 1:43 AM
With much concern about food affordability of late, the CPI recorded a 12-month increase of 3.4% in October. The product groups with the biggest increases were coffee/tea (22%), beef (16.8%), nuts/seeds (9.3%), infant formula (5.9%) and sugar/confectionary (5.4%).
Capital expenditures in Canada's oil and gas extraction industry have been essentially unchanged for the last two quarters, Statistics Canada reported today. #cdnecon
December 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Capital expenditures in Canada's oil and gas extraction industry have been essentially unchanged for the last two quarters, Statistics Canada reported today. #cdnecon
Comparing total hours worked with real GDP since the pandemic, the relationship looks quite similar regardless of whether the LFS or SEPH hours measure is used. Hours are under trend this year, possibly because the GDP weakness in tariffed industries has relatively high hours-output elasticity.
November 30, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Comparing total hours worked with real GDP since the pandemic, the relationship looks quite similar regardless of whether the LFS or SEPH hours measure is used. Hours are under trend this year, possibly because the GDP weakness in tariffed industries has relatively high hours-output elasticity.
For those interested in the picky details of today's Canadian national accounts release for the 3rd quarter, here is a collection of 100 charts for key time series. Expand the graphic below or for perhaps easier viewing go to this URL: www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_nat...
November 28, 2025 at 2:34 PM
For those interested in the picky details of today's Canadian national accounts release for the 3rd quarter, here is a collection of 100 charts for key time series. Expand the graphic below or for perhaps easier viewing go to this URL: www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_nat...