Phil Smith
@philsmith26.bsky.social
Canadian economist and statistician. https://linktr.ee/philsmith26
Pinned
Phil Smith
@philsmith26.bsky.social
· Sep 10
Real GDP per capita vs real HDI per capita since 2019
Why have they evolved so differently? What are the implications?
substack.com
I invite you to read my latest Substack paper about three alternative summary indicators of economic welfare. #cdnecon substack.com/home/post/p-...
The narcissist.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
A Tiny West Wing Office Is Big on Trump Messaging
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:00 AM
The narcissist.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
Many Canadian economists worry about our real GDP growth relative to the US counterpart over the last decade (often in per capita terms) while also worrying about Canada's federal deficits being too big. But you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Huge US deficits have been hugely stimulative.
November 13, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Many Canadian economists worry about our real GDP growth relative to the US counterpart over the last decade (often in per capita terms) while also worrying about Canada's federal deficits being too big. But you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Huge US deficits have been hugely stimulative.
Our Canadian oligarchs are getting older as well as richer and more numerous. Their median age was 60, their median income was $5,366,400 and the threshold income for entry into the top 0.01% of tax filers was $3,487,600 in 2023. They had 1.3% of total income and paid 3.0% of income taxes. #cdnecon
November 9, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Our Canadian oligarchs are getting older as well as richer and more numerous. Their median age was 60, their median income was $5,366,400 and the threshold income for entry into the top 0.01% of tax filers was $3,487,600 in 2023. They had 1.3% of total income and paid 3.0% of income taxes. #cdnecon
Canada's LFS full-time employment has been growing well below its post-pandemic trend line this year. For the 55+ age group, growth stopped in 2024. Private sector employment weakened first, but lately public sector growth has slackened too. Self-employment has dipped only in the last three months.
November 8, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Canada's LFS full-time employment has been growing well below its post-pandemic trend line this year. For the 55+ age group, growth stopped in 2024. Private sector employment weakened first, but lately public sector growth has slackened too. Self-employment has dipped only in the last three months.
Politicians can be so ignorant and just plain stupid sometimes when trying to defend the indefensible.
Q: Food prices are still going up. Grocery prices are still going up. How do you respond?
MIKE JOHNSON: All of the economist have shown that food prices always go up. There's an inflationary level that's built in to grocery prices.
MIKE JOHNSON: All of the economist have shown that food prices always go up. There's an inflationary level that's built in to grocery prices.
November 6, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Politicians can be so ignorant and just plain stupid sometimes when trying to defend the indefensible.
Here's an update to my set of 100 Canadian monthly economic indicator charts. #cdnecon
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
November 6, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Here's an update to my set of 100 Canadian monthly economic indicator charts. #cdnecon
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
Today's release from Rentals.ca indicates average asking rents continued to fall in October. A good sign for the "affordability" problem. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Today's release from Rentals.ca indicates average asking rents continued to fall in October. A good sign for the "affordability" problem. #cdnecon
Here are average disposable household incomes by province in 2024, calculated using the provincial economic accounts released by StatCan today. Median incomes, which are substantially lower, must be calculated with income tax data that are not yet available for 2024. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Here are average disposable household incomes by province in 2024, calculated using the provincial economic accounts released by StatCan today. Median incomes, which are substantially lower, must be calculated with income tax data that are not yet available for 2024. #cdnecon
StatCan released provincial economic accounts data for 2024 today. Here are some international and interprovincial trade estimates, and some business investment statistics, that set the standard from which government policy in 2025 is trying to depart. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 2:24 PM
StatCan released provincial economic accounts data for 2024 today. Here are some international and interprovincial trade estimates, and some business investment statistics, that set the standard from which government policy in 2025 is trying to depart. #cdnecon
It seems StatCan has a permanent 12% budget cut, phased in, but no specific programs have been identified for the cut. Apparently they will try to do this entirely through efficiencies and reductions in data frequency and detail across the board. Sounds to me like "death by a thousand cuts".
November 6, 2025 at 12:39 AM
It seems StatCan has a permanent 12% budget cut, phased in, but no specific programs have been identified for the cut. Apparently they will try to do this entirely through efficiencies and reductions in data frequency and detail across the board. Sounds to me like "death by a thousand cuts".
Here's a look at almost-five-year salaried employment trends in Canada's four big provinces, from SEPH. The picture has been generally weak starting in 2024, with Alberta doing the best of the four. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Here's a look at almost-five-year salaried employment trends in Canada's four big provinces, from SEPH. The picture has been generally weak starting in 2024, with Alberta doing the best of the four. #cdnecon
SEPH-based employment growth has been relatively slow over the last 2-3 years. It increased just 1.9%, seasonally adjusted, between January 2023 and August 2025. But one standout industry has been child day-care services, jumping 20.8% over this same period and still soaring. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 7:01 PM
SEPH-based employment growth has been relatively slow over the last 2-3 years. It increased just 1.9%, seasonally adjusted, between January 2023 and August 2025. But one standout industry has been child day-care services, jumping 20.8% over this same period and still soaring. #cdnecon
SEPH's standard work week for salaried employees has proven itself to be a good cyclical indicator. It has been on a downward trend since April 2024. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 6:50 PM
SEPH's standard work week for salaried employees has proven itself to be a good cyclical indicator. It has been on a downward trend since April 2024. #cdnecon
The SEPH data for August, when combined with the CPI data, indicate real fixed-weight average hourly earnings increased 1.0% over the last 12 months, continuing the long span of increases seen since January 2024. The cumulative rise over those 20 months is 4.1% (seasonally adjusted). #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 6:38 PM
The SEPH data for August, when combined with the CPI data, indicate real fixed-weight average hourly earnings increased 1.0% over the last 12 months, continuing the long span of increases seen since January 2024. The cumulative rise over those 20 months is 4.1% (seasonally adjusted). #cdnecon
SEPH payroll data for August, released today by StatCan, indicate total Canadian employment income rose 3.1% compared to August 2024, reflecting a 3.7% advance in average hourly earnings, a 0.2% rise in employment and a 0.7% drop in average hours worked per week. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 6:29 PM
SEPH payroll data for August, released today by StatCan, indicate total Canadian employment income rose 3.1% compared to August 2024, reflecting a 3.7% advance in average hourly earnings, a 0.2% rise in employment and a 0.7% drop in average hours worked per week. #cdnecon
Every transactor has both a current (revenue-expense) account and a financial (change in assets and liabilities) account. If I buy something, my current account balance becomes smaller or more negative and if I receive my monthly pay cheque my current account balance rises.
October 25, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Every transactor has both a current (revenue-expense) account and a financial (change in assets and liabilities) account. If I buy something, my current account balance becomes smaller or more negative and if I receive my monthly pay cheque my current account balance rises.
Here's the brief Amici Curiae submitted by US economists in support of the petition before the US Supreme Court alleging the President's tariffs are illegal.
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
www.supremecourt.gov
October 25, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Here's the brief Amici Curiae submitted by US economists in support of the petition before the US Supreme Court alleging the President's tariffs are illegal.
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
In 2025 Q2, Canada's major sectors - households, corporations and governments - were all net borrowers and non-residents supplied the offsetting loans and investments. In the U.S. the federal government was a huge net borrower, while households, corporations and non-residents supplied the savings.
October 25, 2025 at 6:15 PM
In 2025 Q2, Canada's major sectors - households, corporations and governments - were all net borrowers and non-residents supplied the offsetting loans and investments. In the U.S. the federal government was a huge net borrower, while households, corporations and non-residents supplied the savings.
The Gordie Howe NHL hat trick - a goal, an assist and a fight in a single game - is a well known and fun concept. Last night in the Montreal-Edmonton game we saw the Alex Newhook hat trick - two goals for your side and one for the other side in a single game. @habsinhighheels.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 2:52 PM
The Gordie Howe NHL hat trick - a goal, an assist and a fight in a single game - is a well known and fun concept. Last night in the Montreal-Edmonton game we saw the Alex Newhook hat trick - two goals for your side and one for the other side in a single game. @habsinhighheels.bsky.social
Trump's lifelong strategy: Get new people to commit minor indiscretions or petty crimes and then escalate the seriousness of the demands upon them so they become more and more compromised. Before long, they are so locked in they cannot afford any second thoughts.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...
Trump Said to Demand Justice Dept. Pay Him $230 Million for Past Cases
www.nytimes.com
October 21, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Trump's lifelong strategy: Get new people to commit minor indiscretions or petty crimes and then escalate the seriousness of the demands upon them so they become more and more compromised. Before long, they are so locked in they cannot afford any second thoughts.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...
Here's a selection of price changes from Statistics Canada's CPI release today. Overall inflation is up compared to August, but still within the 1-3% target range, while core inflation very slightly exceeds that range. #cdnecon
October 21, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Here's a selection of price changes from Statistics Canada's CPI release today. Overall inflation is up compared to August, but still within the 1-3% target range, while core inflation very slightly exceeds that range. #cdnecon
Reposted by Phil Smith
This is a really useful table from the folks at IFSD — especially if we're about to talk a lot about public debt and the cost of carrying that debt.
www.policymagazine.ca/budget-2025-...
www.policymagazine.ca/budget-2025-...
October 15, 2025 at 8:06 PM
This is a really useful table from the folks at IFSD — especially if we're about to talk a lot about public debt and the cost of carrying that debt.
www.policymagazine.ca/budget-2025-...
www.policymagazine.ca/budget-2025-...
Data released by Statistics Canada today for August, after seasonal adjustment, suggest new motor vehicle unit sales might have levelled off this year, although that remains uncertain. They remain well short of the previous peak level in 2017. #cdnecon
October 15, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Data released by Statistics Canada today for August, after seasonal adjustment, suggest new motor vehicle unit sales might have levelled off this year, although that remains uncertain. They remain well short of the previous peak level in 2017. #cdnecon
StatCan released building permits data for August today. The growth in residential permits, under way since the spring of 2024, continues but has a long way to go to reach the government's 500,000 housing starts-a-year target. Non-residential permits remain flat, which is discouraging. #cdnecon
October 14, 2025 at 1:01 PM
StatCan released building permits data for August today. The growth in residential permits, under way since the spring of 2024, continues but has a long way to go to reach the government's 500,000 housing starts-a-year target. Non-residential permits remain flat, which is discouraging. #cdnecon