George Pearkes
@peark.es
No longer Bluesky’s only resident finance bro | Macro Strategist | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | QCR: Non Culto, For The Crown | American via Canada, not Scottish.
*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG
📍 CLT
*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG
📍 CLT
Hmm maybe I actually have an Ohio Power then because I’ve never felt a touch of give to it.
November 11, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Hmm maybe I actually have an Ohio Power then because I’ve never felt a touch of give to it.
Again that example assumes the asset’s price does not appreciate.
There’s absolutely a market for that kind of duration…especially at extremely fat OAS. But it’s relatively small.
There’s absolutely a market for that kind of duration…especially at extremely fat OAS. But it’s relatively small.
November 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Again that example assumes the asset’s price does not appreciate.
There’s absolutely a market for that kind of duration…especially at extremely fat OAS. But it’s relatively small.
There’s absolutely a market for that kind of duration…especially at extremely fat OAS. But it’s relatively small.
Not sure this is true given HPA. But it’s still bad from that perspective because it further reinforces the need for sustained real price increases and therefore worse affordability.
November 11, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Not sure this is true given HPA. But it’s still bad from that perspective because it further reinforces the need for sustained real price increases and therefore worse affordability.
Lol I DL/squat/bench with a Rogue Ohio, if it bends at all it’s staying that way. A little give definitely helps but I’m a masochist.
November 11, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Lol I DL/squat/bench with a Rogue Ohio, if it bends at all it’s staying that way. A little give definitely helps but I’m a masochist.
We came here for two reasons: to eat hamburgers and load the posterior chain. And we’re all out of hamburgers.
November 11, 2025 at 3:05 PM
We came here for two reasons: to eat hamburgers and load the posterior chain. And we’re all out of hamburgers.
Please let us know if you figure out a way to!
November 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Please let us know if you figure out a way to!
I have only ever done high bar ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
November 11, 2025 at 3:02 PM
I have only ever done high bar ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
no, that's a lot of weight for any human being. for her size it's absolutely shocking.
November 11, 2025 at 2:30 PM
no, that's a lot of weight for any human being. for her size it's absolutely shocking.
2/2 But the weekly series (referenced in the headline above) is less tested. Either way I don't take a huge signal from it other than to say hiring definitely hasn't inflected higher or collapsed over the past month.
November 11, 2025 at 2:28 PM
2/2 But the weekly series (referenced in the headline above) is less tested. Either way I don't take a huge signal from it other than to say hiring definitely hasn't inflected higher or collapsed over the past month.
These don't show a step-change either way. ADP's monthly data series was historically useless for predicting a given month's NFP print but the revisions to their methodology in 2022 and the decline in CES response rates have made them MUCH more useful for predicting revised payrolls. 1/2
Do you have much faith in those numbers unless large, LARGE change?
November 11, 2025 at 2:28 PM
These don't show a step-change either way. ADP's monthly data series was historically useless for predicting a given month's NFP print but the revisions to their methodology in 2022 and the decline in CES response rates have made them MUCH more useful for predicting revised payrolls. 1/2
like have you seen WULF or CIFR and what they're doing?
November 11, 2025 at 2:25 PM
like have you seen WULF or CIFR and what they're doing?
all good I just hadn't seen the headline
November 11, 2025 at 2:24 PM
all good I just hadn't seen the headline
Reposted by George Pearkes
The key is overreacting to a data series that didn’t exist until a couple months ago.
November 11, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The key is overreacting to a data series that didn’t exist until a couple months ago.
I haven’t seen it yet, is it out?
November 11, 2025 at 1:27 PM
I haven’t seen it yet, is it out?