George Pearkes
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peark.es
George Pearkes
@peark.es
47K followers 860 following 76K posts
No longer Bluesky’s only resident finance bro | Macro Strategist | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | QCR: Non Culto, For The Crown | American via Canada, not Scottish.

*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG

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peark.es
In a certain sense I'll always be a little kid reading OCTOBER SKY.
Blue Origin's New Glen at T+00:00:22
November 13, 2025 at 8:56 PM
peark.es
The latest Walmart “ramen” find
A cup of Totino’s Cheese Pizza Ramen Noodles
November 13, 2025 at 7:58 PM
peark.es
Has also performed right in line with Fannie 3s since issuance, which is what you'd expect/hope/like to see.
Chart showing performance in % of SEMT 2021-6 A1 versus generic FNCL 3% 2021's
November 13, 2025 at 7:31 PM
peark.es
Here's the performance of one example transaction from the peak of the mortgage origination boom in 2021. 90d delinquency is 33 bps, weighted-avg credit score is 772, 98.7% of loans have been 100% on time over the past 2 years, no loans >80 LTV. ~1/3rd of loans were >$1mm at issuance. Really clean!
Bloomberg screenshot with a table covering a list of statistics for SEMT 2021-6 A1.
November 13, 2025 at 7:31 PM
peark.es
Just noticed that private label securitizations of prime mortgages are starting to make a comeback. And before any of you people start screeching about 2008, don't do that.
www.urban.org/sites/defaul...
Chart showing the composition of US mortgage originations into "portfolio" (whole loan held by a lender, typically a bank), PLS securitization (private label security; i.e. not gov't insured), FHA/VA (insured by one of those two agencies), and GSE (insured by Fannie or Freddie).
November 13, 2025 at 7:31 PM
peark.es
o....kay?
Elon replying "false" on Twitter to a post with a screenshot of the story I linked above.
November 13, 2025 at 4:26 PM
peark.es
1y OHLC chart of GS's Non-Profitable Tech basket
November 13, 2025 at 3:47 PM
peark.es
"paedophile"
Laser eyes bald egal destroying British vs American English spelling sheet BRITISH DETECTED OPINION DISREGARDED
November 13, 2025 at 3:08 PM
peark.es
That's a pretty punch B-CCC spread, suggests a musical chairs game brought on by headlines as opposed to significant asset quality changes. Could be the latter still but purely narrative-driven dislocations can hit private markets just like stonks.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October saw the investment vehicles’ highest monthly volume of deeply discounted asset sales since records began, capping the most active quarter yet, as managers sought to offload riskier loans amid the credit market jitters triggered by the rapid unraveling of First Brands and Tricolor.  Managers of collateralized loan obligations, which repackage mostly leveraged loans into bonds of varying risk and reward, typically sell weaker holdings toward year-end to crystallize losses and lock in returns. But the scale of this year’s activity is unprecedented.  Sales of euro- and sterling-denominated term loan Bs priced below 75 cents on the euro jumped to €357 million ($414 million) last month, well above the Covid-era peak of €226 million in July 2020. The wave of disposals is eroding the cushion between assets and liabilities, particularly for investors in the most junior tranches of the capital stack. That risks leaving some managers with less flexibility to trade or reinvest as they may have to divert cash flows if they breach their coverage requirements. Variations in credit quality, portfolio strategy and structural headroom are increasingly exposing performance gaps across the market. Chart showing sales of CLO collateral denominated in EUR and GBP with a price below 75 cents on the dollar. Chart showing loan price indices for European leveraged loans rated B, BB, and CCC.
November 13, 2025 at 11:27 AM
peark.es
thankfully Bloomberg has this built in already (note the view count top right)
Kathryn Helen Ruemmler "Kathy"    7 Views Today Career / Compensation | More… Goldman Sachs Group Inc Chief Legal Officer/General Counsel Chief Legal Officer/Genera… Goldman Sachs Group Inc 03/2021-Present +1-212-902-1000 (o) 200 West Street GS Infrastructure Partners New York NY 10282, US Exec VP/Chief Legal Office… 03/2021-Present Focus Legal Goldman Sachs Group Inc Partner/Global Head:Regul… Biography | More » 04/2020-03/2021 Kathryn H. Ruemmler is an attorney who was principal deputy White House counsel and   then White House Counsel to President Barack Obama. Previously a partner at Latham Boards and Watkins co-chairing its white-collar defense ... More German Marshall Fund of Th… 12)Source: Wikipedia Trustee …
November 12, 2025 at 7:43 PM
peark.es
A few charts to add to this, using the Fed's Distributional Financial Accounts data which are derived in part from the SCF Caley cites. There are a couple of caveats to this (see subsequent posts) but there's good reason to believe Millennials are keeping up with/slightly outperforming Gen X.
Chart showing share of net worth for each generation starting in the first quarter of the year 30 years after the midpoint of their generation. Chart showing share of real estate assets for each generation starting in the first quarter of the year 30 years after the midpoint of their generation. Share of under-40 net worth and real estate assets by quarter since 1989
November 12, 2025 at 3:39 PM
peark.es
Just a reminder that younger workers *always* have the fastest wage growth relative to the rest of the population because their productivity is rising fastest. So a snapshot in time showing Gen Z with faster wage growth doesn't necessarily mean much. There's definitely been softening for Gen Z.
Atlanta Fed Median Wage Growth Tracker (12m of median same-worker hourly wage growth) by age, 1998-2025. Spread between 18-24 and Overall median wage growth as described in the prior picture.
November 12, 2025 at 2:21 PM
peark.es
This isn't actual crypto ownership but instead % responding "yes" to the question "Do you have interest in buying bitcoin?"; that should be pretty correlated to actual ownership.
Time series showing % of respondents reporting that they have interest in buying bitcoin by income level. $100k+ income households consistently show the most interest, <$50k households consistently show the least.
November 12, 2025 at 2:10 PM
peark.es
Cool story from Dan Tyminski about how he ended up on Avicii’s “Hey Brother”
November 12, 2025 at 1:30 AM
peark.es
Awful story regardless but of course there are contradictory descriptions of whether they hit the box truck or if the box truck hit them.
Cal State Fullerton athlete dies after she, teammate collided with box truck while on e-scooters FULLERT 5 32 Cal State Fullerton sophomore Lauren Turner, wearing No. 5, has died after suffering serious injuries in a scooter accident in September. (Cal State Fullerton Athletics) • Cal State Fullerton soccer player Lauren Turner has died after nearly six weeks in ICU following a collision with a box truck while riding an e-scooter. • Turner and her teammate were not wearing helmets when they were hit on a road near campus in late September. Her teammate is recovering. • Teammates remembered the sophomore for her positivity, humor, compassion and leadership on and off the field, calling her impact on the program "immeasurable." Lauren Turner, a second-year player on the Cal State Fullerton women's soccer team, has died nearly six weeks after she and a teammate were hit by a box truck while riding electric scooters on a road near campus. She was 19.
November 12, 2025 at 12:44 AM
peark.es
RIVN +10% today
Chart of RIVN for past year
November 11, 2025 at 9:05 PM
peark.es
Charlotte greenways are so fantastic 😍

Mid-day 10k on Little Sugar Creek would have been the best even without a pace I am very happy with.
Whoop App screenshot showing a 6.4 mile run though central Charlotte at an 8:25 pace Freedom Park in fall Little Sugar Creek greenway with fall colors Another stretch of Little Sugar Creek greenway including two construction cranes
November 11, 2025 at 4:55 PM
peark.es
Some overnight charts

- Ozzie consumer confidence rips
- Repatriated profits drive a record Japanese current account surplus
- European investors still expecting weak US growth and high US inflation
- UK labor markets continue to weaken with new local high for the UER and softening wage growth
Chart of Z-scored consumer confidence indices for Japan, Sweden, the Eurozone, the US (both Conference Board and UMich) and Australia Chart of Japan's current account surplus since 1996 with the net of debits and credits for the primary income category covering dividends and distributed branch profits. Chart showing spread between inflation and growth expectations for the US relative to the Eurozone. The ZEW data covers European investors. Chart showing the trend in UK average weekly pay (3m avg YoY, trended with a 1y LOESS regression) and the UK unemployment rate.
November 11, 2025 at 1:05 PM
peark.es
Mexican industrial production pulling back despite a bottoming process for PMIs.
Chart of Mexico Industrial Production for past 10 years Chart of Mexico IMEF Manufacturing PMI for past 10 years
November 11, 2025 at 12:59 PM
peark.es
NFIB data is suspect in general but its labor market series does a good job tracking national conditions and this morning's release showed little change, further reinforcing the idea that labor demand and supply have dropped but are not collapsing as in a recession.
Index of average z-score for six different labor market related indicators in the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey
November 11, 2025 at 12:27 PM
peark.es
Potaje (pottage) really hit on what felt like the first night of winter in Charlotte.
A table with bread, olive oil, green olives, tortilla española, manchego, and a potaje of chickpeas and spinach. Toddler plate of same foods from prior pic.
November 11, 2025 at 12:40 AM
peark.es
Shout-outs junior analysts.
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Inside Tricolor, the stress was mounting. Cash was running short, and by this summer, Chu’s team had stopped paying some vendors and contractors, according to people familiar with the matter. The company also fell behind on handing over the sales tax receipts they collected from buyers, people said. To employees and customers, though, it was business as usual almost until the end. Kelly Green, who ran Tricolor’s repossessed-vehicle supply chain, remembers sitting through a meeting in early August — just a month before the bankruptcy filing would drop — where managers discussed expansion plans. “Business was great,” Green recalls people saying. “They were selling. They were breaking records.” Then came the phone call. It was a junior analyst at Waterfall who first detected the issues with the loan data that would prompt JPMorgan's bankers to track Chu down in Italy. The same collateral had been allegedly pledged to multiple lenders. The bank, which had done more to power Tricolor’s rise than any other institution, pulled the plug on its warehouse line. Fifth Third Bancorp, another lender, followed, stating that the company’s loan files that list key information like credit scores and vehicle types seemed to have been “corrupted.” (Similar allegations of fraud would eventually be lobbed at First Brands, too; it denies wrongdoing.) Fifth Third declined to comment.
November 10, 2025 at 7:20 PM
peark.es
Here are data center ABS/CMBS deals priced this year. Total amount is about $17bn. LTVs are around 50! And they trade at a significant spread; issuance-weighted avg rating is around A; that slice of the generic corporate bond market trades at a spread of ~70 bps (i.e. healthy risk premiums).
Charts showing cumulative LTV and cumulative spread at pricing for data center deals this year.
November 10, 2025 at 5:59 PM
peark.es
Here we go
Jake Sherman @JakeSherman NEWS -- SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON plans to swear in Rep.-elect ADELITA GRIJALVA before the government funding vote. This will not change the vote count on the funding bill. But it will put the EPSTEIN discharge petition over the 218-signature threshold. @PunchbowlNews text…
November 10, 2025 at 4:23 PM
peark.es
Look 3/5 is pretty good I guess.
An Explore tab screen shot with the following top five topics 1. John Fetterman 2. Lions vs. Commanders 3. Chuck Schumer 4. 49ers vs Rams 5. Colts Game
November 10, 2025 at 2:53 PM