Paul Franz
@paul-franz.com
Special Adviser, Data and Geospatial Intelligence @crisisgroup.org | Senior Associate (NR) @csis.org | Trusted community developer @mapbox.com | Girl Dad x2 | Long suffering New York #Mets fan | Opinions my own.
https://www.paul-franz.com
https://www.paul-franz.com
Pinned
Paul Franz
@paul-franz.com
· Oct 10
🌍 NEW MAP from @clairemaevabg.bsky.social, @mairavz.bsky.social, and I @crisisgroup.org.
We updated our West Bank Israeli Settlements tracker with 2025 data - including new road infrastructure - and optimized it for mobile.
🔗 Explore the map: crisisgroup.org/visual-explainers/israeli-settlements
We updated our West Bank Israeli Settlements tracker with 2025 data - including new road infrastructure - and optimized it for mobile.
🔗 Explore the map: crisisgroup.org/visual-explainers/israeli-settlements
Reposted by Paul Franz
This number is completely made up. There are not 30 million undocumented immigrants. The most recent estimates are around 14 million, of which roughly 8 million people have been here for over a decade.
Vance is not a fool. He knows this. DHS produces official estimates. They don’t say 30 million.
Vance is not a fool. He knows this. DHS produces official estimates. They don’t say 30 million.
JD Vance: "A lot of young people are saying housing is way too expensive. Why is that? Because we flooded the country with 30 million illegal immigrants who were taking houses that ought by right go to American citizens."
November 14, 2025 at 3:07 AM
This number is completely made up. There are not 30 million undocumented immigrants. The most recent estimates are around 14 million, of which roughly 8 million people have been here for over a decade.
Vance is not a fool. He knows this. DHS produces official estimates. They don’t say 30 million.
Vance is not a fool. He knows this. DHS produces official estimates. They don’t say 30 million.
Reposted by Paul Franz
Write-up on the latest happenings in the Democratic primary race to take on Mike Lawler in #NY17, including a quote from my friend @paul-franz.com.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reinmann bows out in NY-17, backs Conley as crowded field to face Lawler in 2026
UPDATE: The field narrows as Effie Phillips-Staley backer says the progressive Tarrytown trustee is in the race for the long run.
substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:23 AM
Write-up on the latest happenings in the Democratic primary race to take on Mike Lawler in #NY17, including a quote from my friend @paul-franz.com.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by Paul Franz
This is a message of hope when you're an idiot
JD Vance: "Science as practiced in its best form is that if you disagree with it, then you ought to criticize it and you ought to argue against it."
November 12, 2025 at 5:39 PM
This is a message of hope when you're an idiot
Reposted by Paul Franz
Gov. Pritzker: “All I can say is that whether it was the loss in the elections a week ago that's led to Donald Trump deciding to pull CBP out or the fact that Greg Bovino is a snowflake…Whatever it is, the people of Chicago have deserved better than having CBP and Greg Bovino in this city.”
November 11, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Gov. Pritzker: “All I can say is that whether it was the loss in the elections a week ago that's led to Donald Trump deciding to pull CBP out or the fact that Greg Bovino is a snowflake…Whatever it is, the people of Chicago have deserved better than having CBP and Greg Bovino in this city.”
Reposted by Paul Franz
Imagine having a kid in this daycare who watches as their teacher is bodily dragged away by masked goons.
Federal agents pulling a woman out of Rayito Del Sol, a daycare by Lane Tech high school
November 5, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Imagine having a kid in this daycare who watches as their teacher is bodily dragged away by masked goons.
Reposted by Paul Franz
Your Governors-elect for New Jersey and Virginia:
Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger
Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger
November 5, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Your Governors-elect for New Jersey and Virginia:
Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger
Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger
Reposted by Paul Franz
The Supreme Court hears oral arguments in the Tariffs Case today, one of the most consequential of the term.
The bottom line is simple: Congress never authorized these tariffs, and the Court should strike them down.👇
The bottom line is simple: Congress never authorized these tariffs, and the Court should strike them down.👇
The Supreme Court Should Strike Down the Trump Tariffs
Congress never authorized Trump’s tariffs, and the Supreme Court should strike them down.
www.cato.org
November 5, 2025 at 1:05 PM
The Supreme Court hears oral arguments in the Tariffs Case today, one of the most consequential of the term.
The bottom line is simple: Congress never authorized these tariffs, and the Court should strike them down.👇
The bottom line is simple: Congress never authorized these tariffs, and the Court should strike them down.👇
Reposted by Paul Franz
And to show you how worried he is, Mike Lawler immediately replied by criticizing the poll by suggesting it was garbage (because it showed him losing to Cait Conley) but that it also was somehow accurate because it showed him defeating Beth Davidson, so dude is clearly flustered.
November 3, 2025 at 10:33 PM
And to show you how worried he is, Mike Lawler immediately replied by criticizing the poll by suggesting it was garbage (because it showed him losing to Cait Conley) but that it also was somehow accurate because it showed him defeating Beth Davidson, so dude is clearly flustered.
Reposted by Paul Franz
👀
Rare poll of #NY17 which shows Democrat Cait Conley leading GOP Rep. Mike Lawler by 5 points.
@caitfornewyork.bsky.social
Rare poll of #NY17 which shows Democrat Cait Conley leading GOP Rep. Mike Lawler by 5 points.
@caitfornewyork.bsky.social
November 3, 2025 at 10:10 PM
👀
Rare poll of #NY17 which shows Democrat Cait Conley leading GOP Rep. Mike Lawler by 5 points.
@caitfornewyork.bsky.social
Rare poll of #NY17 which shows Democrat Cait Conley leading GOP Rep. Mike Lawler by 5 points.
@caitfornewyork.bsky.social
Confirming what we all knew instinctively, @caitfornewyork.bsky.social is the one to beat for the #NY17 race next year. She can speak to rural and suburban voters that make up this district like no other candidate can, least of all, Beth Davidson.
November 3, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Confirming what we all knew instinctively, @caitfornewyork.bsky.social is the one to beat for the #NY17 race next year. She can speak to rural and suburban voters that make up this district like no other candidate can, least of all, Beth Davidson.
Reposted by Paul Franz
We just crossed it. Yay! Congrats everyone and Happy Halloween!
October 31, 2025 at 8:35 AM
We just crossed it. Yay! Congrats everyone and Happy Halloween!
Channeling my inner Alex Nowrasteh here: "Nativists are the real de-growthers."
Powell: "Job gains have slowed significantly since earlier in the year. A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well."
October 30, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Channeling my inner Alex Nowrasteh here: "Nativists are the real de-growthers."
Reposted by Paul Franz
The Trump administration is often described as "transactional"—meaning that discussions with allies focus less on principles than on proposals with direct economic benefit to the U.S. (or even to Trump himself).
It's bad for our alliances and for our democracy.
www.thebulwark.com/p/the-transa...
It's bad for our alliances and for our democracy.
www.thebulwark.com/p/the-transa...
The ‘Transactional’ Trap
America’s partners shouldn’t think they can deal their way out of Trumpian chaos.
www.thebulwark.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:16 PM
The Trump administration is often described as "transactional"—meaning that discussions with allies focus less on principles than on proposals with direct economic benefit to the U.S. (or even to Trump himself).
It's bad for our alliances and for our democracy.
www.thebulwark.com/p/the-transa...
It's bad for our alliances and for our democracy.
www.thebulwark.com/p/the-transa...
Reposted by Paul Franz
He doesn't care about law. He doesn't care about rules. He doesn't care about the country. He doesn't care about truth. He doesn't care about right or wrong.
He only cares about himself. And most importantly—what he can get away with.
He only cares about himself. And most importantly—what he can get away with.
Trump on a third term: "I would love to do it. I have the best numbers ever. Am I not ruling it out? You'll have to tell me."
October 27, 2025 at 1:56 PM
He doesn't care about law. He doesn't care about rules. He doesn't care about the country. He doesn't care about truth. He doesn't care about right or wrong.
He only cares about himself. And most importantly—what he can get away with.
He only cares about himself. And most importantly—what he can get away with.
Reposted by Paul Franz
Glad @60minutes.bsky.social featured the keen insights of my @crisisgroup.org colleague Phil Gunson on the situation in Venezuela.
www.cbsnews.com/news/nicolas...
www.cbsnews.com/news/nicolas...
What's next for embattled Nicolás Maduro as Trump pressures Venezuela
Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are ratcheting up, with a showdown between President Trump and Nicolás Maduro putting the two nations on the brink.
www.cbsnews.com
October 26, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Glad @60minutes.bsky.social featured the keen insights of my @crisisgroup.org colleague Phil Gunson on the situation in Venezuela.
www.cbsnews.com/news/nicolas...
www.cbsnews.com/news/nicolas...
October 25, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Reposted by Paul Franz
NEW: How scientists who fight infectious diseases are trying to counter the damaging decisions of RFK Jr.
www.thebulwark.com/p/cdc-diaspo...
www.thebulwark.com/p/cdc-diaspo...
The CDC Diaspora Fights Back
How America’s scientific army is trying to stand up for public health—and stand up for itself.
www.thebulwark.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:42 AM
NEW: How scientists who fight infectious diseases are trying to counter the damaging decisions of RFK Jr.
www.thebulwark.com/p/cdc-diaspo...
www.thebulwark.com/p/cdc-diaspo...
Reposted by Paul Franz
Why is the administration talking about fentanyl when it's not what's being targeted?
@bcfinucane.bsky.social responds:
www.youtube.com/shorts/bbMp8...
@bcfinucane.bsky.social responds:
www.youtube.com/shorts/bbMp8...
Why is the administration talking about fentanyl when it’s not what’s being targeted?
YouTube video by Just Security
www.youtube.com
October 22, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Why is the administration talking about fentanyl when it's not what's being targeted?
@bcfinucane.bsky.social responds:
www.youtube.com/shorts/bbMp8...
@bcfinucane.bsky.social responds:
www.youtube.com/shorts/bbMp8...
Reposted by Paul Franz
We’re just two weeks out from Election Day and our focus has to stay on the fights that matter most — the ones happening right here, right now.
Leadership isn’t about being center stage. It’s about standing behind those on the front lines.
Leadership isn’t about being center stage. It’s about standing behind those on the front lines.
October 21, 2025 at 2:15 PM
We’re just two weeks out from Election Day and our focus has to stay on the fights that matter most — the ones happening right here, right now.
Leadership isn’t about being center stage. It’s about standing behind those on the front lines.
Leadership isn’t about being center stage. It’s about standing behind those on the front lines.
With thanks to @dvaleris.bsky.social for sharing, a blocklist for the new USG accounts which are here to troll, not inform. bsky.app/profile/did:...
October 20, 2025 at 3:32 PM
With thanks to @dvaleris.bsky.social for sharing, a blocklist for the new USG accounts which are here to troll, not inform. bsky.app/profile/did:...
Reposted by Paul Franz
America is waking up🇺🇸
October 19, 2025 at 3:20 PM
America is waking up🇺🇸
Shohei Ohtani putting on a historic performance in America's sport tonight - 3 HR's in a clinch game.
Also - an immigrant. Immigrants make our country better.
Also - an immigrant. Immigrants make our country better.
October 18, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Shohei Ohtani putting on a historic performance in America's sport tonight - 3 HR's in a clinch game.
Also - an immigrant. Immigrants make our country better.
Also - an immigrant. Immigrants make our country better.
One additional thought:
If Democrats want to beat Mike Lawler, they need to start thinking about alignment, not auditioning.
#NY17 #Putnam #Rockland #Dutchess #NewYorkPolitics #Democrats
If Democrats want to beat Mike Lawler, they need to start thinking about alignment, not auditioning.
#NY17 #Putnam #Rockland #Dutchess #NewYorkPolitics #Democrats
Final take
This race isn’t fluid anymore.
➡️ Conley: professional, credible, viable.
➡️ Davidson / Reinmann: need sharper strategy.
➡️ Everyone else is just splitting the vote.
#NY17 #HudsonValley #FEC
This race isn’t fluid anymore.
➡️ Conley: professional, credible, viable.
➡️ Davidson / Reinmann: need sharper strategy.
➡️ Everyone else is just splitting the vote.
#NY17 #HudsonValley #FEC
October 17, 2025 at 7:16 PM
One additional thought:
If Democrats want to beat Mike Lawler, they need to start thinking about alignment, not auditioning.
#NY17 #Putnam #Rockland #Dutchess #NewYorkPolitics #Democrats
If Democrats want to beat Mike Lawler, they need to start thinking about alignment, not auditioning.
#NY17 #Putnam #Rockland #Dutchess #NewYorkPolitics #Democrats