How prediction markets can help:

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

The storm didn't begin its northeastward progression as soon as some models anticipated.

According to the HWRF model (00Z 10/28 run)

Hurricane eye landfall times are:

Jamaica: 10/28, 18:00 UTC or 2:00 PM ET
Cuba: 10/29, 6:00 UTC or 2:00 AM ET
The Bahamas: 10/29, 21:00 UTC or 5:00 PM ET.

Additionally, we received 24 questions beforehand (many of which had to be cut due to time constraints in the episode). I have provided bullet point-style written responses with references/links that viewers seeking more detail may find helpful.

www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/24-questio...

S7 Ep4: Extreme Weather part 2 | Floods, fires and storms are flat or down, but risk and damages have increased. www.pbs.org/video/extrem...

S7 Ep3: Extreme Weather part 1 | Our experts dig through IPCC data to reveal surprising trends in extreme weather. www.pbs.org/video/extrem...

You can watch the full discussion here:

Additionally, a major part of the perception is that activists in the climate movement have found it very useful to connect extreme weather to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations as a tool of advocacy.

What is put in front of our eyeballs is largely Earth's pre-existing extreme weather hazards interacting with vastly increased exposure over time and then disseminated to us much more efficiently than ever before through the internet and algorithms.

I think there's a huge gap between what you’d read in the IPCC chapter on extreme weather (WG1 CH 11) and what you see in a lot of media.

That also means that outcomes from extreme weather today are dictated much more by societal arrangements and background economic development than by the severity of the hazard itself.

Meanwhile, climate-sensitive outcomes, such as per capita deaths from extreme weather or $ damage per $ exposed, have declined over time due to economic and technological development.

However, global fire activity, global floods, global meteorological droughts, global hurricane activity, global mid-latitude cyclones, severe thunderstorms, and their subhazards aren’t changing at nearly the pace (or sometimes even in the direction) many people think.

I highlight that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, are causing an increase in heatwaves and coastal flooding as well as a decrease in coldwaves.

This is just the latest datapoint highlighting the potential of machine learning methods to continue to help us improve our weather forecasts and disaster preparedness.