PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
@patricktbrown31.bsky.social
Head of Climate Analytics, Trend Analytics / Interactive Brokers; Adjunct faculty (lecturer) in Energy Policy & Climate at Johns Hopkins; Sr. Fellow at The Breakthrough Institute.
When Are Scientific Claims Untrustworthy?
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...
When Are Scientific Claims Untrustworthy?
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:11 PM
When Are Scientific Claims Untrustworthy?
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...
Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...
It was great to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing the long-term rise in global agricultural productivity and the headwinds from climate change.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Climate Change’s Impact on Global Agriculture and Food Security | IBKR Campus US
Exploring climate change’s impact on global agriculture and food security.
www.interactivebrokers.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:22 PM
It was great to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing the long-term rise in global agricultural productivity and the headwinds from climate change.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
ForecastEx Odds of a Major Hurricane Landfall Compared to Weather Models.
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
October 29, 2025 at 8:01 PM
ForecastEx Odds of a Major Hurricane Landfall Compared to Weather Models.
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
October 27, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Reposted by PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
Glad this climate and energy conversation is up and running.
I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.
October 13, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Glad this climate and energy conversation is up and running.
I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.
October 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.
Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025].
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025] | IBKR Campus US
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com
September 10, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025].
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
August 27, 2025 at 3:33 PM
There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
I had a great time participating in the @srm360.bsky.social
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.
youtu.be/w38WX530ATA
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.
youtu.be/w38WX530ATA
August 27, 2025 at 9:14 AM
I had a great time participating in the @srm360.bsky.social
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.
youtu.be/w38WX530ATA
panel on wildfires, their impacts, and how solar geoengineering could mitigate the threat.
youtu.be/w38WX530ATA
Do we still expect an active hurricane season?
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
August 21, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Do we still expect an active hurricane season?
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Hurricane Erin exhibited extreme rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with wind speeds increasing by 75 mph, from 70 mph at 8:00 AM Friday to 145 mph (Category 4) at 8:00 AM Saturday.
Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Hurricane Prediction Market Commentary 8/15/2025 | IBKR Campus US
The southern US, the Caribbean, and Bermuda are keeping their eyes on Hurricane Erin. As the E in Erin suggests, it is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is the first hurricane.
www.interactivebrokers.com
August 16, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Hurricane Erin exhibited extreme rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with wind speeds increasing by 75 mph, from 70 mph at 8:00 AM Friday to 145 mph (Category 4) at 8:00 AM Saturday.
Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Hurricane Prediction Market Commentary 8/15/2025 | IBKR Campus US
The southern US, the Caribbean, and Bermuda are keeping their eyes on Hurricane Erin. As the E in Erin suggests, it is the 5th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and is the first hurricane.
www.interactivebrokers.com
August 15, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Hurricane Erin update in the context of our climate prediction markets.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Nice overview by
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...
Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...
Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Why wildfire fuels matter more in a warming climate
A warming climate has made it more challenging to deal with wildfires by extending the number of days they can occur and leading to faster-growing larger fires that can have major impacts on air quali...
nbcbayarea.com
June 13, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Nice overview by
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...
Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
@robmayeda.bsky.social of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California:
nbcbayarea.com/news/local/c...
Underlying paper:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Reposted by PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
Incidentally, I did a little back-of-envelope calculation for folks in my research group.
February 4, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Incidentally, I did a little back-of-envelope calculation for folks in my research group.
“Los Angeles is burning, and accelerating hydroclimate whiplash is the key climate connection.”
That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ...
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...
That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ...
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...
How much did increasing “Climate Whiplash” impact the Los Angeles Fires?
“Climate whiplash” appears to be a larger advance in climate science marketing than in climate science.
www.breakthroughjournal.org
January 29, 2025 at 7:23 PM
“Los Angeles is burning, and accelerating hydroclimate whiplash is the key climate connection.”
That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ...
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...
That was the first line of the UCLA press release on a recently-published Nature review paper by @weatherwest.bsky.social et al. ...
www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-d...
Using our attributions methods (adapted from the study below), we calculate that climate change enhanced wildfire intensity over the LA area by 6% between January 7th-11th. This is assuming a 10% difference in wind speed.
January 29, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Using our attributions methods (adapted from the study below), we calculate that climate change enhanced wildfire intensity over the LA area by 6% between January 7th-11th. This is assuming a 10% difference in wind speed.
Reposted by PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
Here's the reality about the #LAFires this week: this isn't the first time ANY of these places have burned. Not even close. In 2018, we mapped CA fire history to look at fire frequency across SoCal. Santa Monica Mtns area burns more than anywhere else -- up to once per decade in a given spot. 🧵
January 9, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Here's the reality about the #LAFires this week: this isn't the first time ANY of these places have burned. Not even close. In 2018, we mapped CA fire history to look at fire frequency across SoCal. Santa Monica Mtns area burns more than anywhere else -- up to once per decade in a given spot. 🧵
Reposted by PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
I think this is a very crucial piece from my colleague
@patricktbrown31.bsky.social raising a constructive warning that researchers studying climate's contribution to extreme weather events must be more holistic, attentive to bias to produce good science + accurately inform policy/the public.
@patricktbrown31.bsky.social raising a constructive warning that researchers studying climate's contribution to extreme weather events must be more holistic, attentive to bias to produce good science + accurately inform policy/the public.
January 8, 2025 at 3:12 PM
I think this is a very crucial piece from my colleague
@patricktbrown31.bsky.social raising a constructive warning that researchers studying climate's contribution to extreme weather events must be more holistic, attentive to bias to produce good science + accurately inform policy/the public.
@patricktbrown31.bsky.social raising a constructive warning that researchers studying climate's contribution to extreme weather events must be more holistic, attentive to bias to produce good science + accurately inform policy/the public.
Even as an expert fact-checker on climate claims for Facebook (climatefeedback.org/reviewers/pa...), I support this decision...
apnews.com/article/meta...
apnews.com/article/meta...
Patrick Brown – Climate Feedback
climatefeedback.org
January 7, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Even as an expert fact-checker on climate claims for Facebook (climatefeedback.org/reviewers/pa...), I support this decision...
apnews.com/article/meta...
apnews.com/article/meta...
This is a nice study, largely building on our 2021 work on wind and solar droughts (a main concern for renewable energy systems):
Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
December 19, 2024 at 2:45 PM
This is a nice study, largely building on our 2021 work on wind and solar droughts (a main concern for renewable energy systems):
Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Reposted by PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
Nice David Wallace Wells write up of BTI's @patricktbrown31.bsky.social report on the massive cost of CA wildfires and massive benefits of fuel reduction. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...
Opinion | Reckoning With the Scale of California Wildfires
www.nytimes.com
December 12, 2024 at 12:04 AM
Nice David Wallace Wells write up of BTI's @patricktbrown31.bsky.social report on the massive cost of CA wildfires and massive benefits of fuel reduction. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...
Human deaths associated with both cold and hot temperatures have been decreasing over time, and people living in warmer climates are much less sensitive to hot temperatures. This should have implications for adaptation research.
My lecture for the Johns Hopkins on this topic:
youtu.be/Psgfsa3iEX0
My lecture for the Johns Hopkins on this topic:
youtu.be/Psgfsa3iEX0
Human Deaths from Hot & Cold Temperatures and Implications for Climate Change
YouTube video by Patrick Brown
youtu.be
December 3, 2024 at 2:04 PM
Human deaths associated with both cold and hot temperatures have been decreasing over time, and people living in warmer climates are much less sensitive to hot temperatures. This should have implications for adaptation research.
My lecture for the Johns Hopkins on this topic:
youtu.be/Psgfsa3iEX0
My lecture for the Johns Hopkins on this topic:
youtu.be/Psgfsa3iEX0
In a 2nd Trump presidency, rather than doubling down on the misguided notion that science is an authority that can fully dictate policy, scientists should strive to delineate between strict scientific facts and their political preferences. t.co/napraOW9iY 🧵
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
In a 2nd Trump presidency, rather than doubling down on the misguided notion that science is an authority that can fully dictate policy, scientists should strive to delineate between strict scientific facts and their political preferences. t.co/napraOW9iY 🧵