PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social
@patricktbrown31.bsky.social
Head of Climate Analytics, Trend Analytics / Interactive Brokers; Adjunct faculty (lecturer) in Energy Policy & Climate at Johns Hopkins; Sr. Fellow at The Breakthrough Institute.
November 10, 2025 at 5:28 PM
ForecastEx Odds of a Major Hurricane Landfall Compared to Weather Models.
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
October 29, 2025 at 8:01 PM
ForecastEx Odds of a Major Hurricane Landfall Compared to Weather Models.
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
The storm didn't begin its northeastward progression as soon as some models anticipated.
According to the HWRF model (00Z 10/28 run)
Hurricane eye landfall times are:
Jamaica: 10/28, 18:00 UTC or 2:00 PM ET
Cuba: 10/29, 6:00 UTC or 2:00 AM ET
The Bahamas: 10/29, 21:00 UTC or 5:00 PM ET.
According to the HWRF model (00Z 10/28 run)
Hurricane eye landfall times are:
Jamaica: 10/28, 18:00 UTC or 2:00 PM ET
Cuba: 10/29, 6:00 UTC or 2:00 AM ET
The Bahamas: 10/29, 21:00 UTC or 5:00 PM ET.
October 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM
The storm didn't begin its northeastward progression as soon as some models anticipated.
According to the HWRF model (00Z 10/28 run)
Hurricane eye landfall times are:
Jamaica: 10/28, 18:00 UTC or 2:00 PM ET
Cuba: 10/29, 6:00 UTC or 2:00 AM ET
The Bahamas: 10/29, 21:00 UTC or 5:00 PM ET.
According to the HWRF model (00Z 10/28 run)
Hurricane eye landfall times are:
Jamaica: 10/28, 18:00 UTC or 2:00 PM ET
Cuba: 10/29, 6:00 UTC or 2:00 AM ET
The Bahamas: 10/29, 21:00 UTC or 5:00 PM ET.
October 27, 2025 at 8:57 PM
I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.
October 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.
There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
August 27, 2025 at 3:33 PM
There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity.
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
Do we still expect an active hurricane season?
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
August 21, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Do we still expect an active hurricane season?
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...
It is notable that Google DeepMind's ML Model foresaw Erin’s extreme rapid intensification as a real possibility as early as last Tuesday evening, while the traditionally most relied upon physical model, ECMWF-ENS, did not have Erin’s level of rapid intensification within its realm of possibility.
August 16, 2025 at 2:20 PM
It is notable that Google DeepMind's ML Model foresaw Erin’s extreme rapid intensification as a real possibility as early as last Tuesday evening, while the traditionally most relied upon physical model, ECMWF-ENS, did not have Erin’s level of rapid intensification within its realm of possibility.
We were also discussing this article internally.
February 5, 2025 at 11:41 AM
We were also discussing this article internally.
Using our attributions methods (adapted from the study below), we calculate that climate change enhanced wildfire intensity over the LA area by 6% between January 7th-11th. This is assuming a 10% difference in wind speed.
January 29, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Using our attributions methods (adapted from the study below), we calculate that climate change enhanced wildfire intensity over the LA area by 6% between January 7th-11th. This is assuming a 10% difference in wind speed.
This is a nice study, largely building on our 2021 work on wind and solar droughts (a main concern for renewable energy systems):
Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
December 19, 2024 at 2:45 PM
This is a nice study, largely building on our 2021 work on wind and solar droughts (a main concern for renewable energy systems):
Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Liu et al. (2024): Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
At this moment, I am encouraged to see signs that leadership is, in fact, going in this direction.
doi.org/10.1126/scie...
doi.org/10.1126/scie...
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
At this moment, I am encouraged to see signs that leadership is, in fact, going in this direction.
doi.org/10.1126/scie...
doi.org/10.1126/scie...
Statements 1 and 2 are essentially narrow enough to be addressed by components of the scientific method, and the oft-quoted “97% to 99% scientific consensus on global warming” applies to these statements.
youtu.be/7Csw2RY5Gy8
youtu.be/7Csw2RY5Gy8
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
Statements 1 and 2 are essentially narrow enough to be addressed by components of the scientific method, and the oft-quoted “97% to 99% scientific consensus on global warming” applies to these statements.
youtu.be/7Csw2RY5Gy8
youtu.be/7Csw2RY5Gy8
Claims in climate policy are on a spectrum from being quite amenable to the scientific method to being almost completely outside its realm.
thebreakthrough.org/journal/clim...
thebreakthrough.org/journal/clim...
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
Claims in climate policy are on a spectrum from being quite amenable to the scientific method to being almost completely outside its realm.
thebreakthrough.org/journal/clim...
thebreakthrough.org/journal/clim...
This scientization and depoliticization is clear in U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry’s justification of the political positions of the Biden Administration:
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
This scientization and depoliticization is clear in U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry’s justification of the political positions of the Biden Administration:
A result of all this is that trust in science has deteriorated, with about 1/4th of US adults and 1/3rd of self-identified Republicans now reporting that they have little or no confidence that scientists act in the best interest of the public.
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
A result of all this is that trust in science has deteriorated, with about 1/4th of US adults and 1/3rd of self-identified Republicans now reporting that they have little or no confidence that scientists act in the best interest of the public.
This statement by Bari Weiss refers to the attitudes in elite left-of-center media, but it could just as easily have been said about attitudes in elite scientific and academic institutions.
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
This statement by Bari Weiss refers to the attitudes in elite left-of-center media, but it could just as easily have been said about attitudes in elite scientific and academic institutions.
Another particularly salient example was the letter from health experts in the middle of COVID-19, which abruptly reversed previous messaging and endorsed an exception for social gatherings, so long as it was for the progressive cause of the moment. cbc.ca/radio/asitha...
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
Another particularly salient example was the letter from health experts in the middle of COVID-19, which abruptly reversed previous messaging and endorsed an exception for social gatherings, so long as it was for the progressive cause of the moment. cbc.ca/radio/asitha...
Prominent examples of this were the 2017 "The March for Science” and the world’s most prestigious scientific journal, Nature, officially endorsing Joe Biden for president in 2020 as well as Kamala Harris for President in 2024.
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
Prominent examples of this were the 2017 "The March for Science” and the world’s most prestigious scientific journal, Nature, officially endorsing Joe Biden for president in 2020 as well as Kamala Harris for President in 2024.
In a 2nd Trump presidency, rather than doubling down on the misguided notion that science is an authority that can fully dictate policy, scientists should strive to delineate between strict scientific facts and their political preferences. t.co/napraOW9iY 🧵
November 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM
In a 2nd Trump presidency, rather than doubling down on the misguided notion that science is an authority that can fully dictate policy, scientists should strive to delineate between strict scientific facts and their political preferences. t.co/napraOW9iY 🧵
As Harry Saunders has shown, growth is not a tenet of capitalism in any formal mathematical sense, and in the real world, we observe that once societies reach a certain level of productivity, their growth rates actually begin to decline.
thebreakthrough.org/journal/issu...
thebreakthrough.org/journal/issu...
November 13, 2024 at 9:50 PM
As Harry Saunders has shown, growth is not a tenet of capitalism in any formal mathematical sense, and in the real world, we observe that once societies reach a certain level of productivity, their growth rates actually begin to decline.
thebreakthrough.org/journal/issu...
thebreakthrough.org/journal/issu...
Carbon Intensity of Energy has been decreasing globally. The environment in which this is fostered is summarized in More from Less as having the four elements of 1) capitalism, 2) technological progress, 3) an informed public, and 4) responsive government.
andrewmcafee.org/books/more-f...
andrewmcafee.org/books/more-f...
November 13, 2024 at 9:50 PM
Carbon Intensity of Energy has been decreasing globally. The environment in which this is fostered is summarized in More from Less as having the four elements of 1) capitalism, 2) technological progress, 3) an informed public, and 4) responsive government.
andrewmcafee.org/books/more-f...
andrewmcafee.org/books/more-f...
These examples are representative of broader trends observable at the aggregate economic level. In the highest-income, most economically-free countries, we have seen peaks and subsequent decreases in energy consumption not only per unit of GDP, but also on a per-person basis.
November 13, 2024 at 9:50 PM
These examples are representative of broader trends observable at the aggregate economic level. In the highest-income, most economically-free countries, we have seen peaks and subsequent decreases in energy consumption not only per unit of GDP, but also on a per-person basis.
Population: As societies become materially better off, fertility rates tend to decline naturally. This phenomenon results from a multitude of factors, but it is the most free economies that tend to have the lowest fertility rates.
November 13, 2024 at 9:50 PM
Population: As societies become materially better off, fertility rates tend to decline naturally. This phenomenon results from a multitude of factors, but it is the most free economies that tend to have the lowest fertility rates.
Regarding mitigation, I use the terms of the Kaya Identity to argue that productivity in a capitalistic framework actually creates a downward push on at least three of four factors.
November 13, 2024 at 9:50 PM
Regarding mitigation, I use the terms of the Kaya Identity to argue that productivity in a capitalistic framework actually creates a downward push on at least three of four factors.