Patrick Flynn
@patrickjfl.bsky.social
Data Journalist at Focaldata. Hoping this platform takes off. (he/him) 🏳️🌈 patrick@focaldata.com
Finally, we used a combination of public MRP polls, modelled with our own data and the preferences given above to estimate how the UK would vote under different electoral systems.
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Finally, we used a combination of public MRP polls, modelled with our own data and the preferences given above to estimate how the UK would vote under different electoral systems.
We also asked people to give their ranked ballot preferences under a PR system. Some interesting findings here (almost a quarter of Reform voters would rank Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens second).
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
We also asked people to give their ranked ballot preferences under a PR system. Some interesting findings here (almost a quarter of Reform voters would rank Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens second).
Which parties would people be willing to go into coalition with? The public splits into pretty clear left and right blocs...
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Which parties would people be willing to go into coalition with? The public splits into pretty clear left and right blocs...
However, messages against PR are more effective at changing people's minds than those in support. The average anti-PR message reduces support by 3.8 points, whereas the average pro-PR message only increases support by 1.2 points.
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
However, messages against PR are more effective at changing people's minds than those in support. The average anti-PR message reduces support by 3.8 points, whereas the average pro-PR message only increases support by 1.2 points.
In contrast to the Brexit referendum, voters on both sides of the debate more or less want the same things. Being able to vote for your preferred party rather than tactically is the characteristic most selected by supporters of each system.
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
In contrast to the Brexit referendum, voters on both sides of the debate more or less want the same things. Being able to vote for your preferred party rather than tactically is the characteristic most selected by supporters of each system.
Voters narrowly back PR over FPTP 41% to 36%, with the model below showing the key drivers of PR support.
People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Voters narrowly back PR over FPTP 41% to 36%, with the model below showing the key drivers of PR support.
People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
August 20, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Full write-up below, including our latest Westminster voting intention figures.
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
August 20, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Full write-up below, including our latest Westminster voting intention figures.
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
You can read more on this ‒ including a message-testing case study on how the aid sector could restore support ‒ on our blog 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/foundat...
www.focaldata.com/blog/foundat...
Foundations at Risk: A new white paper from Focaldata
We are delighted to announce the release of our latest white paper, Foundations at Risk: Why support for philanthropic ventures like overseas aid and climate action is crumbling across the West – and ...
www.focaldata.com
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
You can read more on this ‒ including a message-testing case study on how the aid sector could restore support ‒ on our blog 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/foundat...
www.focaldata.com/blog/foundat...
In-donor refugee costs and misinformation around where aid is spent are both damaging support for the aid sector.
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
In-donor refugee costs and misinformation around where aid is spent are both damaging support for the aid sector.
Overseas aid is by far the UK public's lowest spending priority ‒ almost off-the-charts bad.
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Overseas aid is by far the UK public's lowest spending priority ‒ almost off-the-charts bad.
Voters across the four countries we studied basically don't trust their government to deliver anything. Overseas aid is the area where governments are least trusted to spend money well.
Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.
Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Voters across the four countries we studied basically don't trust their government to deliver anything. Overseas aid is the area where governments are least trusted to spend money well.
Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.
Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.
Net Zero has quietly become a culture-war issue, and is now almost as politically-divisive as multiculturalism.
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Net Zero has quietly become a culture-war issue, and is now almost as politically-divisive as multiculturalism.
As for the UK, another 0 public points may well be on the cards, but some mild jury love may be enough to keep us off the bottom of the scoreboard.
May 17, 2025 at 4:49 PM
As for the UK, another 0 public points may well be on the cards, but some mild jury love may be enough to keep us off the bottom of the scoreboard.
You can read our whole report here: www.focaldata.com/blog/trump-e...
'Trump effect' may cost Conservatives victory in Canadian election
The Liberal Party of Canada appears on course for a narrow victory in Monday’s federal election, holding a 3-point lead over the Conservatives.
www.focaldata.com
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
You can read our whole report here: www.focaldata.com/blog/trump-e...
However, while some of the fundamentals favour the Liberals, we think we should be cautious. The 'wisdom of the crowd' method, which successfully predicted Trump's swing state victories in November, points towards a polling error and a Conservative victory today.
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
However, while some of the fundamentals favour the Liberals, we think we should be cautious. The 'wisdom of the crowd' method, which successfully predicted Trump's swing state victories in November, points towards a polling error and a Conservative victory today.