Patrick Flynn
@patrickjfl.bsky.social
Data Journalist at Focaldata. Hoping this platform takes off. (he/him) 🏳️🌈 patrick@focaldata.com
Pinned
Patrick Flynn
@patrickjfl.bsky.social
· Nov 7
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
Our latest blog looks at attitudes to proportional representation in the UK, and why the debate is likely to go mainstream in the next couple of years.
But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...
But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...
Has the time come for Proportional Representation?
After bubbling away in policy circles since the AV referendum in 2011, the debate over electoral reform is likely to burst back into the mainstream in the coming years. There are a few major factors d...
www.focaldata.com
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Our latest blog looks at attitudes to proportional representation in the UK, and why the debate is likely to go mainstream in the next couple of years.
But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...
But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...
NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election.
After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
August 20, 2025 at 2:44 PM
NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election.
After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members.
We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.
We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.
August 20, 2025 at 12:56 PM
We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members.
We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.
We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.
We've just released a new white paper here at @focaldata.bsky.social, explaining why support for overseas aid has fallen among both voters and governments in the West, and why Net Zero risks going the same way.
🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:
🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
We've just released a new white paper here at @focaldata.bsky.social, explaining why support for overseas aid has fallen among both voters and governments in the West, and why Net Zero risks going the same way.
🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:
🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:
Small samples so would be careful over-interpreting, but seeing evidence of the young gender split in our poll (Reform at 25% with male 16-17 year olds, 10% with female)
Do you have breakdowns of 16-17 olds by gender?
July 18, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Small samples so would be careful over-interpreting, but seeing evidence of the young gender split in our poll (Reform at 25% with male 16-17 year olds, 10% with female)
Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)
July 18, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)
Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final.
The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.
Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.
Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
May 17, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final.
The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.
Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.
Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...
May 2, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...
🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%.
Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
April 25, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%.
Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
April 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
New piece from me on where the public in 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 stands on defence and security.
www.focaldata.com/blog/will-se...
www.focaldata.com/blog/will-se...
Will security be the wedge issue which splits Europe’s radical right?
The radical right in Europe is achieving its best election results in history. In Germany, the far-right AfD surged to 21% of the vote in last month’s election, finishing in second place nationally fo...
www.focaldata.com
March 12, 2025 at 11:46 AM
New piece from me on where the public in 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 stands on defence and security.
www.focaldata.com/blog/will-se...
www.focaldata.com/blog/will-se...
Reposted by Patrick Flynn
Yesterday, we presented some exclusive findings from a European survey (covering 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) at the CEPS Ideas Lab in Brussels.
With defence and security in the news, here are our key findings on that particular topic... 🧵
With defence and security in the news, here are our key findings on that particular topic... 🧵
March 4, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Yesterday, we presented some exclusive findings from a European survey (covering 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) at the CEPS Ideas Lab in Brussels.
With defence and security in the news, here are our key findings on that particular topic... 🧵
With defence and security in the news, here are our key findings on that particular topic... 🧵
Reposted by Patrick Flynn
Our analysis of the geography of GE2024 is now out in
@politicalquarterly.bsky.social. This offers an important update of The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales by @jwfurlong.bsky.social and me, published by OUP just ahead of the election. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
@politicalquarterly.bsky.social. This offers an important update of The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales by @jwfurlong.bsky.social and me, published by OUP just ahead of the election. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
January 7, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Our analysis of the geography of GE2024 is now out in
@politicalquarterly.bsky.social. This offers an important update of The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales by @jwfurlong.bsky.social and me, published by OUP just ahead of the election. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
@politicalquarterly.bsky.social. This offers an important update of The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales by @jwfurlong.bsky.social and me, published by OUP just ahead of the election. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Our final Bi_Focal of 2024 looks at the key lessons we've drawn from a very busy and consequential year of polling:
what went well? What were the mega themes? What should the industry be doing going forward?
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
what went well? What were the mega themes? What should the industry be doing going forward?
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
Bi_Focal #21: Four lessons from a year in research
Explore key lessons from 2024, including innovations in opinion polling, demographic shifts, and the rise of zero-sum thinking. Learn how we expect MRP, 'wisdom of the crowds,' and qualitative researc...
www.focaldata.com
December 18, 2024 at 5:56 PM
Our final Bi_Focal of 2024 looks at the key lessons we've drawn from a very busy and consequential year of polling:
what went well? What were the mega themes? What should the industry be doing going forward?
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
what went well? What were the mega themes? What should the industry be doing going forward?
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
In case we didn’t know already, Biden-Trump would have been a landslide…
We asked Americans how they voted — and how they would have voted with a different Democratic nominee
More registered voters say they voted for Harris (46%) than would've voted for Biden (41%), Whitmer (38%), or Shapiro (37%) had they been on the ballot
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
More registered voters say they voted for Harris (46%) than would've voted for Biden (41%), Whitmer (38%), or Shapiro (37%) had they been on the ballot
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
November 30, 2024 at 6:45 PM
In case we didn’t know already, Biden-Trump would have been a landslide…
Amazing to see!
November 25, 2024 at 12:43 PM
Amazing to see!
This. Also one of the driving factors behind Trump's appeal to low interest voters (somewhat of an overlap between authenticity and entertainment as well).
John Prescott as well as being as skilled politician embodied an authenticity the public think is missing in politicians today. There's a reason Boris Johnson, Angela Rayner, Nigel Farage are names that come up when you ask people which politicians they like - the public think they are 'real' people
November 21, 2024 at 10:44 AM
This. Also one of the driving factors behind Trump's appeal to low interest voters (somewhat of an overlap between authenticity and entertainment as well).
Reposted by Patrick Flynn
It really is amazing just how big a difference institutions can make to our politics. Here's the effective number of seat-winning parties in New Zealand before and after it switched to a mixed-member proportional system
November 16, 2024 at 6:20 AM
It really is amazing just how big a difference institutions can make to our politics. Here's the effective number of seat-winning parties in New Zealand before and after it switched to a mixed-member proportional system
This is starting to feel like a viable platform now, v exciting!
November 14, 2024 at 12:13 AM
This is starting to feel like a viable platform now, v exciting!
Anyone got starter packs / lists of English-speaking accounts to follow for the German election?
November 12, 2024 at 11:14 AM
Anyone got starter packs / lists of English-speaking accounts to follow for the German election?
Brilliant tool for finding people to follow on here.
I had a try at making this
bsky-follow-finder.theo.io
Enter your handle and it will find people followed by lots of the people you follow (but not you)
bsky-follow-finder.theo.io
Enter your handle and it will find people followed by lots of the people you follow (but not you)
November 12, 2024 at 10:51 AM
Brilliant tool for finding people to follow on here.
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
November 7, 2024 at 10:26 PM
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
This is a fascinating piece by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social and well worth a read!
Our latest Bi_Focal blog looks at views on economic growth and finds that they form a distinct dimension of political beliefs, separate from traditional left-right economic or liberal-conservative cultural divides.
Read it here 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
Read it here 👇
www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
Bi_Focal #20: Is there an anti-growth coalition in Britain?
With the Labour government’s focus on increasing economic growth, in this blog post we examine whether there actually is (in Liz Truss’s words) an ‘anti-growth coalition’ within public opinion and whe...
www.focaldata.com
October 18, 2024 at 4:13 PM
This is a fascinating piece by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social and well worth a read!
