Patrick Flynn
@patrickjfl.bsky.social
Data Journalist at Focaldata. Hoping this platform takes off. (he/him) 🏳️🌈 patrick@focaldata.com
Finally, we used a combination of public MRP polls, modelled with our own data and the preferences given above to estimate how the UK would vote under different electoral systems.
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Finally, we used a combination of public MRP polls, modelled with our own data and the preferences given above to estimate how the UK would vote under different electoral systems.
We also asked people to give their ranked ballot preferences under a PR system. Some interesting findings here (almost a quarter of Reform voters would rank Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens second).
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
We also asked people to give their ranked ballot preferences under a PR system. Some interesting findings here (almost a quarter of Reform voters would rank Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens second).
Which parties would people be willing to go into coalition with? The public splits into pretty clear left and right blocs...
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Which parties would people be willing to go into coalition with? The public splits into pretty clear left and right blocs...
However, messages against PR are more effective at changing people's minds than those in support. The average anti-PR message reduces support by 3.8 points, whereas the average pro-PR message only increases support by 1.2 points.
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
However, messages against PR are more effective at changing people's minds than those in support. The average anti-PR message reduces support by 3.8 points, whereas the average pro-PR message only increases support by 1.2 points.
In contrast to the Brexit referendum, voters on both sides of the debate more or less want the same things. Being able to vote for your preferred party rather than tactically is the characteristic most selected by supporters of each system.
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
In contrast to the Brexit referendum, voters on both sides of the debate more or less want the same things. Being able to vote for your preferred party rather than tactically is the characteristic most selected by supporters of each system.
Voters narrowly back PR over FPTP 41% to 36%, with the model below showing the key drivers of PR support.
People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Voters narrowly back PR over FPTP 41% to 36%, with the model below showing the key drivers of PR support.
People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!
Full write-up below, including our latest Westminster voting intention figures.
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
August 20, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Full write-up below, including our latest Westminster voting intention figures.
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election.
After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
August 20, 2025 at 2:44 PM
NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election.
After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
In-donor refugee costs and misinformation around where aid is spent are both damaging support for the aid sector.
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
In-donor refugee costs and misinformation around where aid is spent are both damaging support for the aid sector.
Overseas aid is by far the UK public's lowest spending priority ‒ almost off-the-charts bad.
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Overseas aid is by far the UK public's lowest spending priority ‒ almost off-the-charts bad.
Voters across the four countries we studied basically don't trust their government to deliver anything. Overseas aid is the area where governments are least trusted to spend money well.
Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.
Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Voters across the four countries we studied basically don't trust their government to deliver anything. Overseas aid is the area where governments are least trusted to spend money well.
Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.
Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.
Net Zero has quietly become a culture-war issue, and is now almost as politically-divisive as multiculturalism.
July 30, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Net Zero has quietly become a culture-war issue, and is now almost as politically-divisive as multiculturalism.
Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)
July 18, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)
Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final.
The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.
Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.
Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
May 17, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final.
The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.
Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.
Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...
May 2, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...
However, while some of the fundamentals favour the Liberals, we think we should be cautious. The 'wisdom of the crowd' method, which successfully predicted Trump's swing state victories in November, points towards a polling error and a Conservative victory today.
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
However, while some of the fundamentals favour the Liberals, we think we should be cautious. The 'wisdom of the crowd' method, which successfully predicted Trump's swing state victories in November, points towards a polling error and a Conservative victory today.
Trump's actions have dramatically affected Canada's views of the United States. Almost half of Canadians now see the US as either 'unfriendly', or an enemy of Canada, a higher percentage than those who say the same about China.
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Trump's actions have dramatically affected Canada's views of the United States. Almost half of Canadians now see the US as either 'unfriendly', or an enemy of Canada, a higher percentage than those who say the same about China.
With Canadians whose vote was influenced by Trump's recent actions, the Liberals dominate with 53% of the vote, and Mark Carney leads by 44 points on who would be best to handle the US-Canada relationship (the second most important issue) among those who see it as important.
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
With Canadians whose vote was influenced by Trump's recent actions, the Liberals dominate with 53% of the vote, and Mark Carney leads by 44 points on who would be best to handle the US-Canada relationship (the second most important issue) among those who see it as important.
🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%.
Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
April 25, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%.
Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
April 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
November 7, 2024 at 10:26 PM
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
To combat the problem, we built a turnout model which considers the effects of self-reported likelihood to vote, alongside other demographics, on whether someone actually votes or not.
The result is that Harris' lead falls by an average of 2.4 points compared to the general population.
The result is that Harris' lead falls by an average of 2.4 points compared to the general population.
September 23, 2024 at 2:46 PM
To combat the problem, we built a turnout model which considers the effects of self-reported likelihood to vote, alongside other demographics, on whether someone actually votes or not.
The result is that Harris' lead falls by an average of 2.4 points compared to the general population.
The result is that Harris' lead falls by an average of 2.4 points compared to the general population.
However, there is a large difference in turnout among 'definite' voters when looking at age, race or education.
Only around half of those under 35 who said they would vote last time ended up voting. For over 65s, the figure is much higher, at 85%.
Only around half of those under 35 who said they would vote last time ended up voting. For over 65s, the figure is much higher, at 85%.
September 23, 2024 at 2:45 PM
However, there is a large difference in turnout among 'definite' voters when looking at age, race or education.
Only around half of those under 35 who said they would vote last time ended up voting. For over 65s, the figure is much higher, at 85%.
Only around half of those under 35 who said they would vote last time ended up voting. For over 65s, the figure is much higher, at 85%.
The polls underestimated Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. There's a risk that may happen again in November.
Pollsters' reliance on self-reported likelihood to vote is causing some of the problem.
🧵
Pollsters' reliance on self-reported likelihood to vote is causing some of the problem.
🧵
September 23, 2024 at 2:45 PM
The polls underestimated Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. There's a risk that may happen again in November.
Pollsters' reliance on self-reported likelihood to vote is causing some of the problem.
🧵
Pollsters' reliance on self-reported likelihood to vote is causing some of the problem.
🧵