The Overhang
@overhang-aonz.bsky.social
Structured vibes. Aotearoa-New Zealand political takes, with an analytical bent.
Mixed back at a local board level, ranging from 29% in Warkworth to 14% in Flat Bush.
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
October 7, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Mixed back at a local board level, ranging from 29% in Warkworth to 14% in Flat Bush.
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
Waiheke (+7.5%) and Papatoetoe (+6%) most improved, with Manguawhau (-5.5%) and Kumeu (-6%) seeing the biggest falls
Auckland City Council ballot returns, as of Tuesday 7th October. 18% back as of today.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
October 7, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Auckland City Council ballot returns, as of Tuesday 7th October. 18% back as of today.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Pattern is fairly consistent across the wards, with all running significantly higher than 2022.
Wharangi/Onslow-Western both leading (with 25% back) and the most improved (+8% up).
Wharangi/Onslow-Western both leading (with 25% back) and the most improved (+8% up).
October 7, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Pattern is fairly consistent across the wards, with all running significantly higher than 2022.
Wharangi/Onslow-Western both leading (with 25% back) and the most improved (+8% up).
Wharangi/Onslow-Western both leading (with 25% back) and the most improved (+8% up).
Wellington City Council ballot returns, as of Monday 6th October. 21% back as of yesterday.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
October 7, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Wellington City Council ballot returns, as of Monday 6th October. 21% back as of yesterday.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Bolger started with an even more commanding 13% landslide over hospital-pass recipient Mike Moore.
The crash was harsher too.
By this point, amid economic strife and in the aftermath of the Mother of All Budgets, National had shed a 24 points to be -11 down on Moore's Labour.
The crash was harsher too.
By this point, amid economic strife and in the aftermath of the Mother of All Budgets, National had shed a 24 points to be -11 down on Moore's Labour.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Bolger started with an even more commanding 13% landslide over hospital-pass recipient Mike Moore.
The crash was harsher too.
By this point, amid economic strife and in the aftermath of the Mother of All Budgets, National had shed a 24 points to be -11 down on Moore's Labour.
The crash was harsher too.
By this point, amid economic strife and in the aftermath of the Mother of All Budgets, National had shed a 24 points to be -11 down on Moore's Labour.
Kirk started off well (finally defeating the fourth-term, Marshall-led, natural-party-of-government Second National Government) by 8%.
With repeated economic shocks, this had decayed to just 2% by the half way mark.
With repeated economic shocks, this had decayed to just 2% by the half way mark.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Kirk started off well (finally defeating the fourth-term, Marshall-led, natural-party-of-government Second National Government) by 8%.
With repeated economic shocks, this had decayed to just 2% by the half way mark.
With repeated economic shocks, this had decayed to just 2% by the half way mark.
Isolating just first terms and the picture is a little more concerning.
Most new administrations tend to have an extended honeymoon, with support averaging ~6% at this point.
At 0.6% (on a raw basis not adjusting for house effects) is the second worst on record.
Most new administrations tend to have an extended honeymoon, with support averaging ~6% at this point.
At 0.6% (on a raw basis not adjusting for house effects) is the second worst on record.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Isolating just first terms and the picture is a little more concerning.
Most new administrations tend to have an extended honeymoon, with support averaging ~6% at this point.
At 0.6% (on a raw basis not adjusting for house effects) is the second worst on record.
Most new administrations tend to have an extended honeymoon, with support averaging ~6% at this point.
At 0.6% (on a raw basis not adjusting for house effects) is the second worst on record.
Zooming in on just where we are now (16 months in) we can get a reasonable comparison.
Next to an all-terms average of 2%, the current government's narrow lead doesn't look especially bad.
But support for the government tends to decay over its lifespan.
Next to an all-terms average of 2%, the current government's narrow lead doesn't look especially bad.
But support for the government tends to decay over its lifespan.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Zooming in on just where we are now (16 months in) we can get a reasonable comparison.
Next to an all-terms average of 2%, the current government's narrow lead doesn't look especially bad.
But support for the government tends to decay over its lifespan.
Next to an all-terms average of 2%, the current government's narrow lead doesn't look especially bad.
But support for the government tends to decay over its lifespan.
This is on the face of it... not great.
But how does it compare historically, and how did past governments in a similar position fare? We have public polling data going back to the end of the Holyoake years.
The polling path of each govt since then, along with their electoral fortunes are below.
But how does it compare historically, and how did past governments in a similar position fare? We have public polling data going back to the end of the Holyoake years.
The polling path of each govt since then, along with their electoral fortunes are below.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
This is on the face of it... not great.
But how does it compare historically, and how did past governments in a similar position fare? We have public polling data going back to the end of the Holyoake years.
The polling path of each govt since then, along with their electoral fortunes are below.
But how does it compare historically, and how did past governments in a similar position fare? We have public polling data going back to the end of the Holyoake years.
The polling path of each govt since then, along with their electoral fortunes are below.
In terms of how we got here, Luxon et al started with a respectable 11% margin (above the historic norm of 8% for new govts) and held that lead for about a year.
Then over the course of 2024 that began to slip and now hovers just above a dead heat.
Then over the course of 2024 that began to slip and now hovers just above a dead heat.
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
In terms of how we got here, Luxon et al started with a respectable 11% margin (above the historic norm of 8% for new govts) and held that lead for about a year.
Then over the course of 2024 that began to slip and now hovers just above a dead heat.
Then over the course of 2024 that began to slip and now hovers just above a dead heat.
Brief summary of the current situation and how we got here.
National (31.7) are just ahead of Labour (31.2). With support parties factored in the government is 0.8% ahead of the opposition.
(Note: this was written prior to today's Curia and Verian polls, but the overall picture remains the same).
National (31.7) are just ahead of Labour (31.2). With support parties factored in the government is 0.8% ahead of the opposition.
(Note: this was written prior to today's Curia and Verian polls, but the overall picture remains the same).
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Brief summary of the current situation and how we got here.
National (31.7) are just ahead of Labour (31.2). With support parties factored in the government is 0.8% ahead of the opposition.
(Note: this was written prior to today's Curia and Verian polls, but the overall picture remains the same).
National (31.7) are just ahead of Labour (31.2). With support parties factored in the government is 0.8% ahead of the opposition.
(Note: this was written prior to today's Curia and Verian polls, but the overall picture remains the same).
New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish).
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish).
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
Latest polls from each firm largely confirming to type: - Roy flattering the minors (giving TPM a record 9%).
- Talbot Mills looking better for Labour
- Hard to say if that Freshwater Green-lean is real, given we only have two polls.
Also Fs in the chat for Reid Research 😔
- Talbot Mills looking better for Labour
- Hard to say if that Freshwater Green-lean is real, given we only have two polls.
Also Fs in the chat for Reid Research 😔
December 9, 2024 at 8:48 AM
Latest polls from each firm largely confirming to type: - Roy flattering the minors (giving TPM a record 9%).
- Talbot Mills looking better for Labour
- Hard to say if that Freshwater Green-lean is real, given we only have two polls.
Also Fs in the chat for Reid Research 😔
- Talbot Mills looking better for Labour
- Hard to say if that Freshwater Green-lean is real, given we only have two polls.
Also Fs in the chat for Reid Research 😔
Fish view of the same data since the election to get us caught up:
Post-election saw a "Nationalwards" phase.
Summer was "Stable" with sparse polling.
February into March saw a modest "Greenwards" recovery.
April-May was "Labourwards".
Winter was a slow "Rightwards" drift.
Post-election saw a "Nationalwards" phase.
Summer was "Stable" with sparse polling.
February into March saw a modest "Greenwards" recovery.
April-May was "Labourwards".
Winter was a slow "Rightwards" drift.
December 9, 2024 at 8:48 AM
Fish view of the same data since the election to get us caught up:
Post-election saw a "Nationalwards" phase.
Summer was "Stable" with sparse polling.
February into March saw a modest "Greenwards" recovery.
April-May was "Labourwards".
Winter was a slow "Rightwards" drift.
Post-election saw a "Nationalwards" phase.
Summer was "Stable" with sparse polling.
February into March saw a modest "Greenwards" recovery.
April-May was "Labourwards".
Winter was a slow "Rightwards" drift.
Changes over the past year (it's been a while) slightly clearer in this view.
Current phase is 🟢>🟠<🔴=🔵>🟡=⚫ "outwards".
Current phase is 🟢>🟠<🔴=🔵>🟡=⚫ "outwards".
December 9, 2024 at 8:48 AM
Changes over the past year (it's been a while) slightly clearer in this view.
Current phase is 🟢>🟠<🔴=🔵>🟡=⚫ "outwards".
Current phase is 🟢>🟠<🔴=🔵>🟡=⚫ "outwards".
Trends in support overtime.
National compound recent losses (-1.2 vs November). ACT continue modest gains (+0.6). NZ First largely flat (-0.1).
Labour also flat (n/c). Greens' slide continues (-0.3%). TPM the most significant winner (+1.1).
Parties outside parliament stable.
National compound recent losses (-1.2 vs November). ACT continue modest gains (+0.6). NZ First largely flat (-0.1).
Labour also flat (n/c). Greens' slide continues (-0.3%). TPM the most significant winner (+1.1).
Parties outside parliament stable.
December 9, 2024 at 8:48 AM
Trends in support overtime.
National compound recent losses (-1.2 vs November). ACT continue modest gains (+0.6). NZ First largely flat (-0.1).
Labour also flat (n/c). Greens' slide continues (-0.3%). TPM the most significant winner (+1.1).
Parties outside parliament stable.
National compound recent losses (-1.2 vs November). ACT continue modest gains (+0.6). NZ First largely flat (-0.1).
Labour also flat (n/c). Greens' slide continues (-0.3%). TPM the most significant winner (+1.1).
Parties outside parliament stable.
NZ polling update: December 2024
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
December 9, 2024 at 8:48 AM
NZ polling update: December 2024
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
