The Overhang
@overhang-aonz.bsky.social
Structured vibes. Aotearoa-New Zealand political takes, with an analytical bent.
Pinned
NZ polling update: December 2024
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
In your inboxes now: a brief and slight self-indulgent preview of the Wellington City Council race this weekend.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
The Overhang: Wellington Special Edition
A brief, belated, and not especially rigorous preview and analysis of the Wellington City local elections.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 7:18 PM
In your inboxes now: a brief and slight self-indulgent preview of the Wellington City Council race this weekend.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
Of interest heading into this weekend's local elections: ward-level estimates of the 2023 general election party vote.
Interactive version here: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Interactive version here: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
All wards
A Flourish data visualization by The Overhang
public.flourish.studio
October 7, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Of interest heading into this weekend's local elections: ward-level estimates of the 2023 general election party vote.
Interactive version here: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Interactive version here: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Auckland City Council ballot returns, as of Tuesday 7th October. 18% back as of today.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
October 7, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Auckland City Council ballot returns, as of Tuesday 7th October. 18% back as of today.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Tracking lower than any previous year.
Wellington City Council ballot returns, as of Monday 6th October. 21% back as of yesterday.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
October 7, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Wellington City Council ballot returns, as of Monday 6th October. 21% back as of yesterday.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.
Reposted by The Overhang
New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish).
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish).
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish).
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
February 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish).
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically.
tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
NZ polling update: December 2024
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
December 9, 2024 at 8:48 AM
NZ polling update: December 2024
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
We're back!
National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%).
Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left.
TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.
Kia ora. Setting up the Aotearoa politics data store here too.
Content to follow in due course.
Content to follow in due course.
November 18, 2024 at 9:15 AM
Kia ora. Setting up the Aotearoa politics data store here too.
Content to follow in due course.
Content to follow in due course.