One frustration in all this is the big NLW uprating wasn't actually the plan - they wanted to hold steady relative to av. wages (youth rates different, admittedly). LPC's hand was forced by ASHE revision + strict wording in remit. Treasury could still have changed NICs plan after that news though.

I punted off the top first time I tried it, hence the relief on this go

It's a 6b going up the side of the autobus boulder in Albarracin, can't remember the name. There's a 7a if you start lower under the roof which I regret not doing - the top out is def the hardest bit for me (as I think you can see !)

I'm inclined to be slightly cautious about the latest payroll numbers, because recently data points have ended up being revised up (by 50k ish on average). But that said the Sep figure was revised *down*, and estimates which start off with a downward revision rarely end up UP.

Haha. It's not really I promise. If you want some actual good climbing skills you need to talk to @t0nyyates.bsky.social

I expected that story because that's what the data had been showing over the summer (jobs flat rather than falling, unemployment stable rather than rising). And because businesses themselves said the NICs/NLW effects were mostly done

I did a birkbeck masters too. Good luck. Very glad i did it but mine was alongside full time work and it made me.. tired. Also the dissertation was due in the same summer everyone started getting married, so was largely written hungover on trains

Works better if you imagine 10,000 angry Chris Giles's shouting it outside the ONS

4. The bosses have wage setting power. LFS data (slightly old, sorry) suggests grad salaries lost ground to the median - it's not just that min wage has caught up.

5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!

2. Even if it didn't, min wage is only encroaching on lowest grad salaries, as FT's chart shows. So even if no career progression, it still pays to go to uni.

3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?

Re first question in principle yes of course but there's a trade off with hiring incentives (given workers can also try and bring claims where the dismissal wasn't, in fact, unfair).

And second question, yes good q. I think that could be a response. I think that's quite common in Netherlands

'Probationary period' in the sense of the new things the govt is creating? Yes. (But doesn't mean they would win the case ofc, depends how govt ends up defining 'unfair dismissal' in those periods). In the sense of the things employers themselves use currently, no (other than for discrimination)

The telegraph covered this (that's me off my mum's Christmas card list) but managed to butcher the chart 😭