Nye Cominetti
@nyecominetti.bsky.social
At Resolution Foundation covering labour market, low pay, living wage.
I expected that story because that's what the data had been showing over the summer (jobs flat rather than falling, unemployment stable rather than rising). And because businesses themselves said the NICs/NLW effects were mostly done
November 11, 2025 at 7:55 AM
I expected that story because that's what the data had been showing over the summer (jobs flat rather than falling, unemployment stable rather than rising). And because businesses themselves said the NICs/NLW effects were mostly done
A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%.
Here is our PN
Here is our PN
November 11, 2025 at 7:55 AM
A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%.
Here is our PN
Here is our PN
From last week. Climbing is fun! (This isn't a hard route but was hard for me)
November 10, 2025 at 9:18 PM
From last week. Climbing is fun! (This isn't a hard route but was hard for me)
4. The bosses have wage setting power. LFS data (slightly old, sorry) suggests grad salaries lost ground to the median - it's not just that min wage has caught up.
5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!
5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!
November 3, 2025 at 1:28 PM
4. The bosses have wage setting power. LFS data (slightly old, sorry) suggests grad salaries lost ground to the median - it's not just that min wage has caught up.
5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!
5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!
2. Even if it didn't, min wage is only encroaching on lowest grad salaries, as FT's chart shows. So even if no career progression, it still pays to go to uni.
3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?
3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?
November 3, 2025 at 1:28 PM
2. Even if it didn't, min wage is only encroaching on lowest grad salaries, as FT's chart shows. So even if no career progression, it still pays to go to uni.
3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?
3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?
Found this piece about minimum wage catching up with entry level grad pay a bit odd.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
November 3, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Found this piece about minimum wage catching up with entry level grad pay a bit odd.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
The telegraph covered this (that's me off my mum's Christmas card list) but managed to butcher the chart 😭
October 28, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The telegraph covered this (that's me off my mum's Christmas card list) but managed to butcher the chart 😭
Many measures in the ERB bring the UK closer into line with other rich countries, but making unfair dismissal protection a day one right would take UK from one end of the scale (2 year qualifying periods are unusual and unjustified) to the other (no qualifying period at all also unusual- see chart).
October 28, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Many measures in the ERB bring the UK closer into line with other rich countries, but making unfair dismissal protection a day one right would take UK from one end of the scale (2 year qualifying periods are unusual and unjustified) to the other (no qualifying period at all also unusual- see chart).
4. More in the weeds, but hourly pay growth > weekly, pretty much across the board, aka hours down. I thought maybe an ASHE oddity but it's also in the LFS - not something I'd noticed. It's consistent with a NICS/NLW response but I'd have expected that to be more bottom heavy. One to ponder!
October 23, 2025 at 12:09 PM
4. More in the weeds, but hourly pay growth > weekly, pretty much across the board, aka hours down. I thought maybe an ASHE oddity but it's also in the LFS - not something I'd noticed. It's consistent with a NICS/NLW response but I'd have expected that to be more bottom heavy. One to ponder!
2. Another type of pay inquality - the gender pay gap - is also coming down. It now stands at 7% among full-time workers. 50 years ago the gap was five times bigger
October 23, 2025 at 12:05 PM
2. Another type of pay inquality - the gender pay gap - is also coming down. It now stands at 7% among full-time workers. 50 years ago the gap was five times bigger
1. Low hourly pay continues to fall. Now at 2.5%. 'Low pay' is generally defined as earnings below 2/3 the median. This is of course the work of the rising minimum wage. You don't get many charts this striking ...
October 23, 2025 at 12:05 PM
1. Low hourly pay continues to fall. Now at 2.5%. 'Low pay' is generally defined as earnings below 2/3 the median. This is of course the work of the rising minimum wage. You don't get many charts this striking ...
Each dot is a ship and most ships carried 400+ slaves. This is a freeze frame from one year
October 23, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Each dot is a ship and most ships carried 400+ slaves. This is a freeze frame from one year
A second cool thing about Finland in two days. It's the only OECD country (maybe the only country full stop?) where male and female employment rates are basically the same.
October 14, 2025 at 3:04 PM
A second cool thing about Finland in two days. It's the only OECD country (maybe the only country full stop?) where male and female employment rates are basically the same.
The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, John Le Carre.
As good as I was told it would be. I guess I have to read all the others now
As good as I was told it would be. I guess I have to read all the others now
October 14, 2025 at 1:51 PM
The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, John Le Carre.
As good as I was told it would be. I guess I have to read all the others now
As good as I was told it would be. I guess I have to read all the others now
And can say exactly the same for this one. NBER really dishing out the goods today.
Forget to give employees a birthday card -> performance suffers, aka the Yaya Toure effect www.nber.org/papers/w3436...
Forget to give employees a birthday card -> performance suffers, aka the Yaya Toure effect www.nber.org/papers/w3436...
October 13, 2025 at 7:49 AM
And can say exactly the same for this one. NBER really dishing out the goods today.
Forget to give employees a birthday card -> performance suffers, aka the Yaya Toure effect www.nber.org/papers/w3436...
Forget to give employees a birthday card -> performance suffers, aka the Yaya Toure effect www.nber.org/papers/w3436...
Can't believe someone a) had the data to write this paper b) wrote this paper www.nber.org/papers/w3434...
October 13, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Can't believe someone a) had the data to write this paper b) wrote this paper www.nber.org/papers/w3434...
This isn't a perfect answer but if you look at retail + leisure+ hospitality (which is a pretty large share of MW employment) this is the breakdown of employment and consumption. Hence why I've generally been optimistic about that part of the distributional question
September 26, 2025 at 11:38 AM
This isn't a perfect answer but if you look at retail + leisure+ hospitality (which is a pretty large share of MW employment) this is the breakdown of employment and consumption. Hence why I've generally been optimistic about that part of the distributional question
I did music reviews a bit at Uni, so I know it's tricky to get the tone right, but this is quite something from Pitchfork
September 25, 2025 at 6:58 PM
I did music reviews a bit at Uni, so I know it's tricky to get the tone right, but this is quite something from Pitchfork
2. They have started a project to resolve the lack of coherence between LFS and admin data (PAYE) and business survey data (WFJ), and because of the above-mentioned issues with the LFS trend this year. That sounds promising !
September 23, 2025 at 2:17 PM
2. They have started a project to resolve the lack of coherence between LFS and admin data (PAYE) and business survey data (WFJ), and because of the above-mentioned issues with the LFS trend this year. That sounds promising !
The blog acknowledges this. Good moment to remind you that RF continue to update our own employment rate estimates based on administrative jobs data ☺️https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/estimates-of-uk-employment/
September 23, 2025 at 2:17 PM
The blog acknowledges this. Good moment to remind you that RF continue to update our own employment rate estimates based on administrative jobs data ☺️https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/estimates-of-uk-employment/
1. They expect LFS responses to keep rising (in waves 2-5) thanks to their methodology changes. That's good, but will affect LFS estimates, and I think means we can't place much weight on LFS employment trends until that process is complete - blog says from Q3.
September 23, 2025 at 2:17 PM
1. They expect LFS responses to keep rising (in waves 2-5) thanks to their methodology changes. That's good, but will affect LFS estimates, and I think means we can't place much weight on LFS employment trends until that process is complete - blog says from Q3.
Of course, slowing pay growth is less good news for workers. With inflation rising, real earnings growth has pretty much come to a halt. In real terms, average weekly pay has basically not risen since last October, having grown strongly before that.
September 16, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Of course, slowing pay growth is less good news for workers. With inflation rising, real earnings growth has pretty much come to a halt. In real terms, average weekly pay has basically not risen since last October, having grown strongly before that.
Overall pay growth would be slower still were it not for April’s minimum wage increase. Pay growth has been strongest in affected sectors and for affected workers. Since January 2025 wages in wholesale, retail and hospitality have grown at twice the rate (5.2%) of the whole economy (2.5%).
September 16, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Overall pay growth would be slower still were it not for April’s minimum wage increase. Pay growth has been strongest in affected sectors and for affected workers. Since January 2025 wages in wholesale, retail and hospitality have grown at twice the rate (5.2%) of the whole economy (2.5%).
Pay growth is slowing especially quickly in the most recent data. The growth rate on the previous quarter is equivalent to 3.9% annually.
September 16, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Pay growth is slowing especially quickly in the most recent data. The growth rate on the previous quarter is equivalent to 3.9% annually.
Turning to pay, Bank of England policymakers will be reassured to see pay growth continue to slow. Annualised regular nominal pay grew by 4.8% in the 3-months to July – it was last below this rate in May 2022.
September 16, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Turning to pay, Bank of England policymakers will be reassured to see pay growth continue to slow. Annualised regular nominal pay grew by 4.8% in the 3-months to July – it was last below this rate in May 2022.