Nate Schwartz
@nschwartz.bsky.social
LHP changeups and the Cardinals winning 87 games make me happy
writing about baseball at PitcherList | he/him
writing about baseball at PitcherList | he/him
The Athletic app is testing my loyalty to the pod, full day-long recording would be impressive @grantbrisbee.bsky.social @sammillerbb.bsky.social
@bymccullough.bsky.social
@bymccullough.bsky.social
May 13, 2025 at 11:59 AM
The Athletic app is testing my loyalty to the pod, full day-long recording would be impressive @grantbrisbee.bsky.social @sammillerbb.bsky.social
@bymccullough.bsky.social
@bymccullough.bsky.social
Spencer Schwellenbach is one of the most popular breakout picks for 2025. The #Braves SP posted a 3.35 ERA in 124 IP last year, and most projections systems like him in 2025.
He is the only pitcher (min 100 IP) to have 6 pitches with a 98 Stuff+ or more; there's no weak link.
He is the only pitcher (min 100 IP) to have 6 pitches with a 98 Stuff+ or more; there's no weak link.
February 26, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Spencer Schwellenbach is one of the most popular breakout picks for 2025. The #Braves SP posted a 3.35 ERA in 124 IP last year, and most projections systems like him in 2025.
He is the only pitcher (min 100 IP) to have 6 pitches with a 98 Stuff+ or more; there's no weak link.
He is the only pitcher (min 100 IP) to have 6 pitches with a 98 Stuff+ or more; there's no weak link.
The discipline and contact ability have stayed the same though, he has 90ish% zone-contact, below-average chase rate, but a low whiff rate.
Even comparing Process+ between '23 and '24 shows the only change is power, everything else is par for the course
4/6
Even comparing Process+ between '23 and '24 shows the only change is power, everything else is par for the course
4/6
February 13, 2025 at 2:34 PM
The discipline and contact ability have stayed the same though, he has 90ish% zone-contact, below-average chase rate, but a low whiff rate.
Even comparing Process+ between '23 and '24 shows the only change is power, everything else is par for the course
4/6
Even comparing Process+ between '23 and '24 shows the only change is power, everything else is par for the course
4/6
Even though it's still well above-average, Nolan was elite at pulled fly balls (PFB) and it allowed him to tap into more power than his batted ball profile suggests (league average 90EV).
In 2024, his xSLG on PFB got halved from his 2021-2023 marks.
2/6
In 2024, his xSLG on PFB got halved from his 2021-2023 marks.
2/6
February 13, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Even though it's still well above-average, Nolan was elite at pulled fly balls (PFB) and it allowed him to tap into more power than his batted ball profile suggests (league average 90EV).
In 2024, his xSLG on PFB got halved from his 2021-2023 marks.
2/6
In 2024, his xSLG on PFB got halved from his 2021-2023 marks.
2/6
Arenado's bread and butter after he left Coors, pulling flyballs, was exceptional in his early years as a Cardinal. His 17% AirPull% was 98th percentile in 2021, but it's declined to 75th percentile in 2024.
1/6
1/6
February 13, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Arenado's bread and butter after he left Coors, pulling flyballs, was exceptional in his early years as a Cardinal. His 17% AirPull% was 98th percentile in 2021, but it's declined to 75th percentile in 2024.
1/6
1/6
my favorite super niche piece of media on my phone, relevant today
February 12, 2025 at 2:52 PM
my favorite super niche piece of media on my phone, relevant today
I think there's a real chance we see a .285 AVG and 25 HR season this year or in the near future. Burleson is a pure hitter at heart with enough power to be an impact bat given his track record in 2024.
If the #STLCards are serious about giving young players chances, he should get 600 AB.
8/8
If the #STLCards are serious about giving young players chances, he should get 600 AB.
8/8
January 31, 2025 at 9:29 PM
I think there's a real chance we see a .285 AVG and 25 HR season this year or in the near future. Burleson is a pure hitter at heart with enough power to be an impact bat given his track record in 2024.
If the #STLCards are serious about giving young players chances, he should get 600 AB.
8/8
If the #STLCards are serious about giving young players chances, he should get 600 AB.
8/8
But overall, Burleson has a 96th percentile Ideal Plate Appearance rate, which is any PA ending in a barrel, solid contact, or a flare/burner.
His value is seen in putting the ball in play well, but not in ways that a Statcast-based projection system might like.
7/8
His value is seen in putting the ball in play well, but not in ways that a Statcast-based projection system might like.
7/8
January 31, 2025 at 9:29 PM
But overall, Burleson has a 96th percentile Ideal Plate Appearance rate, which is any PA ending in a barrel, solid contact, or a flare/burner.
His value is seen in putting the ball in play well, but not in ways that a Statcast-based projection system might like.
7/8
His value is seen in putting the ball in play well, but not in ways that a Statcast-based projection system might like.
7/8
Burleson has an 89th percentile line drive rate and 30th percentile fly ball rate, so his hard hit balls aren't frequently hit in a place where they can get out of the park.
Additionally, he gets to hard contact frequently, but not to his top end power where could generate 30 HR power
5/8
Additionally, he gets to hard contact frequently, but not to his top end power where could generate 30 HR power
5/8
January 31, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Burleson has an 89th percentile line drive rate and 30th percentile fly ball rate, so his hard hit balls aren't frequently hit in a place where they can get out of the park.
Additionally, he gets to hard contact frequently, but not to his top end power where could generate 30 HR power
5/8
Additionally, he gets to hard contact frequently, but not to his top end power where could generate 30 HR power
5/8
No player makes similarly graded contact compared to Burly at the top of this group. The only close ones are Yainer Diaz and Salvador Perez, catchers with more power than contact (PLV data).
Burleson is in the upper echelon of contact because he hits line drives, but leaves room for power
4/8
Burleson is in the upper echelon of contact because he hits line drives, but leaves room for power
4/8
January 31, 2025 at 9:29 PM
No player makes similarly graded contact compared to Burly at the top of this group. The only close ones are Yainer Diaz and Salvador Perez, catchers with more power than contact (PLV data).
Burleson is in the upper echelon of contact because he hits line drives, but leaves room for power
4/8
Burleson is in the upper echelon of contact because he hits line drives, but leaves room for power
4/8
Burleson boasts some of the highest swing aggression in baseball, the 8th most among the 400+ hitters with at least 500 pitches faced in 2024.
So he swings more than just about anyone, but also makes exceptional contact. This is where Burleson stands out from the prototypical free-swinger.
3/8
So he swings more than just about anyone, but also makes exceptional contact. This is where Burleson stands out from the prototypical free-swinger.
3/8
January 31, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Burleson boasts some of the highest swing aggression in baseball, the 8th most among the 400+ hitters with at least 500 pitches faced in 2024.
So he swings more than just about anyone, but also makes exceptional contact. This is where Burleson stands out from the prototypical free-swinger.
3/8
So he swings more than just about anyone, but also makes exceptional contact. This is where Burleson stands out from the prototypical free-swinger.
3/8
I do love savant showing me Burleigh Grimes in the search like I was looking for arm angle of a pitcher from the 1930s
January 31, 2025 at 8:49 PM
I do love savant showing me Burleigh Grimes in the search like I was looking for arm angle of a pitcher from the 1930s
Even though the D-backs acquired Josh Naylor, is Pavin Smith one of the most underrated 1B in the player pool?
130 Process+ and 9 HR in 150ish PA last year, where he made big strides in discipline and contact profile last year.
405 ADP right now with 500ish PA projected by BP
130 Process+ and 9 HR in 150ish PA last year, where he made big strides in discipline and contact profile last year.
405 ADP right now with 500ish PA projected by BP
January 31, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Even though the D-backs acquired Josh Naylor, is Pavin Smith one of the most underrated 1B in the player pool?
130 Process+ and 9 HR in 150ish PA last year, where he made big strides in discipline and contact profile last year.
405 ADP right now with 500ish PA projected by BP
130 Process+ and 9 HR in 150ish PA last year, where he made big strides in discipline and contact profile last year.
405 ADP right now with 500ish PA projected by BP
Found a nugget of info on Willson Contreras: he's seen his average launch angle go from 9 to 14, EV FB decrease by 2 mph, and pull rate go 41%->36% from '22 in CHC to '24 with #STLCards.
Move to 1B will help longevity, but even with strong contact, I'm worried the cliff is near
Move to 1B will help longevity, but even with strong contact, I'm worried the cliff is near
January 29, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Found a nugget of info on Willson Contreras: he's seen his average launch angle go from 9 to 14, EV FB decrease by 2 mph, and pull rate go 41%->36% from '22 in CHC to '24 with #STLCards.
Move to 1B will help longevity, but even with strong contact, I'm worried the cliff is near
Move to 1B will help longevity, but even with strong contact, I'm worried the cliff is near
And here's the no-doubter from '23, one of his best pieces of hitting that year.
I'm curious where Brant Brown will go with Gorman, but I would love to see a callback to his '23 approach. It's not star-level, but a 115ish wRC+ is a big league regular that thrives in everyday playing time
10/10
I'm curious where Brant Brown will go with Gorman, but I would love to see a callback to his '23 approach. It's not star-level, but a 115ish wRC+ is a big league regular that thrives in everyday playing time
10/10
January 27, 2025 at 4:32 PM
And here's the no-doubter from '23, one of his best pieces of hitting that year.
I'm curious where Brant Brown will go with Gorman, but I would love to see a callback to his '23 approach. It's not star-level, but a 115ish wRC+ is a big league regular that thrives in everyday playing time
10/10
I'm curious where Brant Brown will go with Gorman, but I would love to see a callback to his '23 approach. It's not star-level, but a 115ish wRC+ is a big league regular that thrives in everyday playing time
10/10
As a result, here's the popup in 2024 on a pitch that should absolutely be crushed.
9/10
9/10
January 27, 2025 at 4:32 PM
As a result, here's the popup in 2024 on a pitch that should absolutely be crushed.
9/10
9/10
Gorman's stride stays more open with the more open stance in '24 (left), allowing the bat to drop as he reaches out to cover the zone. He got the bat up in time in the '23 swing (right), showing that he can barrel a pitch up.
8/10
8/10
January 27, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Gorman's stride stays more open with the more open stance in '24 (left), allowing the bat to drop as he reaches out to cover the zone. He got the bat up in time in the '23 swing (right), showing that he can barrel a pitch up.
8/10
8/10
Comparing his stance & swing between '23 and '24, he wasn't as open in '24, but that led to a larger step out during his stride. Consider these two stances: '23 is on the right and '24 is on the left.
7/10
7/10
January 27, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Comparing his stance & swing between '23 and '24, he wasn't as open in '24, but that led to a larger step out during his stride. Consider these two stances: '23 is on the right and '24 is on the left.
7/10
7/10
His 35% whiff rate vs. 4-seamers was near the top of the leaderboard, but not entirely unreasonable. The quality of contact dropped significantly, as the xSLG went from .490 to .376.
He's seen 35%+ fastballs in '23 and '24, and needs to crush them in order to succeed in the bigs.
4/10
He's seen 35%+ fastballs in '23 and '24, and needs to crush them in order to succeed in the bigs.
4/10
January 27, 2025 at 4:32 PM
His 35% whiff rate vs. 4-seamers was near the top of the leaderboard, but not entirely unreasonable. The quality of contact dropped significantly, as the xSLG went from .490 to .376.
He's seen 35%+ fastballs in '23 and '24, and needs to crush them in order to succeed in the bigs.
4/10
He's seen 35%+ fastballs in '23 and '24, and needs to crush them in order to succeed in the bigs.
4/10
Last year, his performance against FB cratered. Pitchers went higher in the zone, where there's a hole in Gorman's swing, and he could not respond.
Gorman swung at 4% more pitches in the upper third of the zone and made contact 7% less than in 2023, giving pitchers a clear plan of attack.
3/10
Gorman swung at 4% more pitches in the upper third of the zone and made contact 7% less than in 2023, giving pitchers a clear plan of attack.
3/10
January 27, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Last year, his performance against FB cratered. Pitchers went higher in the zone, where there's a hole in Gorman's swing, and he could not respond.
Gorman swung at 4% more pitches in the upper third of the zone and made contact 7% less than in 2023, giving pitchers a clear plan of attack.
3/10
Gorman swung at 4% more pitches in the upper third of the zone and made contact 7% less than in 2023, giving pitchers a clear plan of attack.
3/10
Gorman's breakout 2023 was highlighted by crushing fastballs. He had an xSLG of .490 on 4-seams and .842 (!!) on sinkers.
Though pitchers targeted up-and-away 4-seamers, Gorman crushed mistakes that ended middle-middle or down.
2/10
Though pitchers targeted up-and-away 4-seamers, Gorman crushed mistakes that ended middle-middle or down.
2/10
January 27, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Gorman's breakout 2023 was highlighted by crushing fastballs. He had an xSLG of .490 on 4-seams and .842 (!!) on sinkers.
Though pitchers targeted up-and-away 4-seamers, Gorman crushed mistakes that ended middle-middle or down.
2/10
Though pitchers targeted up-and-away 4-seamers, Gorman crushed mistakes that ended middle-middle or down.
2/10
The key lies in his decision-making. Looking at his Process+, Gorman exhibited similar power and slightly worse contact between 2023 and 2024, as the drop in contact went hand-in-hand with worse decision-making.
1/10
1/10
January 27, 2025 at 4:32 PM
The key lies in his decision-making. Looking at his Process+, Gorman exhibited similar power and slightly worse contact between 2023 and 2024, as the drop in contact went hand-in-hand with worse decision-making.
1/10
1/10
fetty wap weather
January 25, 2025 at 10:22 PM
fetty wap weather
Merrill made significantly better decisions late in the season and tapped into real power. OOPSY (110 wRC+) and ATC (124 wRC+) differ on what his sophomore season has in store, but I'm buying real upside and star potential here
January 22, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Merrill made significantly better decisions late in the season and tapped into real power. OOPSY (110 wRC+) and ATC (124 wRC+) differ on what his sophomore season has in store, but I'm buying real upside and star potential here
Starting to be all-in on Jackson Merrill this season. He's one of the biggest improvers between 1st half & 2nd half in 2024 and is on an elite list of 2nd half improvers.
Qualified hitters who swung more, chased less, and improved their barrel rate between halves of the szn
Qualified hitters who swung more, chased less, and improved their barrel rate between halves of the szn
January 22, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Starting to be all-in on Jackson Merrill this season. He's one of the biggest improvers between 1st half & 2nd half in 2024 and is on an elite list of 2nd half improvers.
Qualified hitters who swung more, chased less, and improved their barrel rate between halves of the szn
Qualified hitters who swung more, chased less, and improved their barrel rate between halves of the szn