Novocast Analysis
@novocast.bsky.social
⚽ SAFC Tactical Hobbyist
🔴 Analysis of Sunderland performances, tactical trends, and technical issues
✍️ https://substack.com/@novocast
🔴 Analysis of Sunderland performances, tactical trends, and technical issues
✍️ https://substack.com/@novocast
Well, we might have our "The Guy" in Neil's role now haha
July 15, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Well, we might have our "The Guy" in Neil's role now haha
🔴 #SAFC Squad Depth⚪️
▪️Defenders needed urgently
▪️El Khannouss may move ahead of Rigg & Roberts as CAM & RW cover
▪️Triantis likely to stay until CB's signed
▪️New signings have plugged vital gaps and raised the floor of the squad
(Chart based on @scott.cannonstats.com design)
▪️Defenders needed urgently
▪️El Khannouss may move ahead of Rigg & Roberts as CAM & RW cover
▪️Triantis likely to stay until CB's signed
▪️New signings have plugged vital gaps and raised the floor of the squad
(Chart based on @scott.cannonstats.com design)
July 15, 2025 at 2:16 PM
🔴 #SAFC Squad Depth⚪️
▪️Defenders needed urgently
▪️El Khannouss may move ahead of Rigg & Roberts as CAM & RW cover
▪️Triantis likely to stay until CB's signed
▪️New signings have plugged vital gaps and raised the floor of the squad
(Chart based on @scott.cannonstats.com design)
▪️Defenders needed urgently
▪️El Khannouss may move ahead of Rigg & Roberts as CAM & RW cover
▪️Triantis likely to stay until CB's signed
▪️New signings have plugged vital gaps and raised the floor of the squad
(Chart based on @scott.cannonstats.com design)
🔴 #SAFC Squad Building ⚪
• CB Upgrades/Cover Essential
• Seelt, Huggins, Triantis may need another loan
• Khannouss may push Rigg wide & mean Roberts drops down the order
• Patterson & Mundle gaining interest
• Moore, Browne, Roberts phased out longer term
• Adore 0'Nien, but he won't be Prem level
• CB Upgrades/Cover Essential
• Seelt, Huggins, Triantis may need another loan
• Khannouss may push Rigg wide & mean Roberts drops down the order
• Patterson & Mundle gaining interest
• Moore, Browne, Roberts phased out longer term
• Adore 0'Nien, but he won't be Prem level
July 14, 2025 at 8:42 PM
🔴 #SAFC Squad Building ⚪
• CB Upgrades/Cover Essential
• Seelt, Huggins, Triantis may need another loan
• Khannouss may push Rigg wide & mean Roberts drops down the order
• Patterson & Mundle gaining interest
• Moore, Browne, Roberts phased out longer term
• Adore 0'Nien, but he won't be Prem level
• CB Upgrades/Cover Essential
• Seelt, Huggins, Triantis may need another loan
• Khannouss may push Rigg wide & mean Roberts drops down the order
• Patterson & Mundle gaining interest
• Moore, Browne, Roberts phased out longer term
• Adore 0'Nien, but he won't be Prem level
🔴#SAFC El Khannoussi Rumours ⚪
If the fee is ~£20m max, then it's a good signing
✅Exceptional ball control & dribbling
✅Quite combative for a creative player
✅CAM & LW cover, can play RW or deeper if necessary
❌Poor shot choice & execution
❌Progressive passer, but iffy completion %
#SAFC
If the fee is ~£20m max, then it's a good signing
✅Exceptional ball control & dribbling
✅Quite combative for a creative player
✅CAM & LW cover, can play RW or deeper if necessary
❌Poor shot choice & execution
❌Progressive passer, but iffy completion %
#SAFC
July 14, 2025 at 10:00 AM
🔴#SAFC El Khannoussi Rumours ⚪
If the fee is ~£20m max, then it's a good signing
✅Exceptional ball control & dribbling
✅Quite combative for a creative player
✅CAM & LW cover, can play RW or deeper if necessary
❌Poor shot choice & execution
❌Progressive passer, but iffy completion %
#SAFC
If the fee is ~£20m max, then it's a good signing
✅Exceptional ball control & dribbling
✅Quite combative for a creative player
✅CAM & LW cover, can play RW or deeper if necessary
❌Poor shot choice & execution
❌Progressive passer, but iffy completion %
#SAFC
Bafodé Diakité would be an interesting signing, if rumours true
• High Pass Volume
• High Pass Comp %
• High Aerial Duel %
• Set Piece Threat
• Decent Carries & Recoveries
But poor progression & iffy ground duel numbers
Right sided too - maybe Ballard competition/rotation?
#SAFC
• High Pass Volume
• High Pass Comp %
• High Aerial Duel %
• Set Piece Threat
• Decent Carries & Recoveries
But poor progression & iffy ground duel numbers
Right sided too - maybe Ballard competition/rotation?
#SAFC
July 13, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Bafodé Diakité would be an interesting signing, if rumours true
• High Pass Volume
• High Pass Comp %
• High Aerial Duel %
• Set Piece Threat
• Decent Carries & Recoveries
But poor progression & iffy ground duel numbers
Right sided too - maybe Ballard competition/rotation?
#SAFC
• High Pass Volume
• High Pass Comp %
• High Aerial Duel %
• Set Piece Threat
• Decent Carries & Recoveries
But poor progression & iffy ground duel numbers
Right sided too - maybe Ballard competition/rotation?
#SAFC
*something something regression to the mean*
I am immensely proud of this young squad & what they achieved so far this season, but I've also complained consistently about our iffy fundamentals
Weakening press, overly direct progression, lack of bravery in central areas, average chance creation
I am immensely proud of this young squad & what they achieved so far this season, but I've also complained consistently about our iffy fundamentals
Weakening press, overly direct progression, lack of bravery in central areas, average chance creation
November 27, 2024 at 1:29 PM
*something something regression to the mean*
I am immensely proud of this young squad & what they achieved so far this season, but I've also complained consistently about our iffy fundamentals
Weakening press, overly direct progression, lack of bravery in central areas, average chance creation
I am immensely proud of this young squad & what they achieved so far this season, but I've also complained consistently about our iffy fundamentals
Weakening press, overly direct progression, lack of bravery in central areas, average chance creation
🔴 Failure to Recover ⚪
I haven't had time to finish my write up yet, but here's a quick explainer for #SAFC 's ball recovery issues against Millwall's long balls in the second half 👇
substack.com/profile/2240...
(Blue: Ball movement)
(White: Player movements)
(Green: Suggested movement)
I haven't had time to finish my write up yet, but here's a quick explainer for #SAFC 's ball recovery issues against Millwall's long balls in the second half 👇
substack.com/profile/2240...
(Blue: Ball movement)
(White: Player movements)
(Green: Suggested movement)
November 26, 2024 at 5:37 PM
🔴 Failure to Recover ⚪
I haven't had time to finish my write up yet, but here's a quick explainer for #SAFC 's ball recovery issues against Millwall's long balls in the second half 👇
substack.com/profile/2240...
(Blue: Ball movement)
(White: Player movements)
(Green: Suggested movement)
I haven't had time to finish my write up yet, but here's a quick explainer for #SAFC 's ball recovery issues against Millwall's long balls in the second half 👇
substack.com/profile/2240...
(Blue: Ball movement)
(White: Player movements)
(Green: Suggested movement)
🔗 #WBA TACTICAL THREAD
@tacticamente.bsky.social produces spanish analysis of Championship sides, with great insights
I've rolled their thread into a single page, so you can translate it into English 👇
skywriter.blue/pages/tactic...
❗Please give their original thread a repost if you enjoy❗
@tacticamente.bsky.social produces spanish analysis of Championship sides, with great insights
I've rolled their thread into a single page, so you can translate it into English 👇
skywriter.blue/pages/tactic...
❗Please give their original thread a repost if you enjoy❗
November 25, 2024 at 9:39 PM
🔗 #WBA TACTICAL THREAD
@tacticamente.bsky.social produces spanish analysis of Championship sides, with great insights
I've rolled their thread into a single page, so you can translate it into English 👇
skywriter.blue/pages/tactic...
❗Please give their original thread a repost if you enjoy❗
@tacticamente.bsky.social produces spanish analysis of Championship sides, with great insights
I've rolled their thread into a single page, so you can translate it into English 👇
skywriter.blue/pages/tactic...
❗Please give their original thread a repost if you enjoy❗
From an analysis thread on X, after the QPR game
November 25, 2024 at 6:19 PM
From an analysis thread on X, after the QPR game
Sure, here's his profile & a crude scatter plot from @mclachbot.com
Profile shows percentile ranking (size of slice) vs Champ midfielders
Scatter plot:
- X Axis: Tackle + Interceptions
- Y Axis: Prog. Pass Distance
- Size: Mins played
- Colour: # of Recoveries
Also see: fbref.com/en/players/a...
Profile shows percentile ranking (size of slice) vs Champ midfielders
Scatter plot:
- X Axis: Tackle + Interceptions
- Y Axis: Prog. Pass Distance
- Size: Mins played
- Colour: # of Recoveries
Also see: fbref.com/en/players/a...
November 25, 2024 at 6:08 PM
Sure, here's his profile & a crude scatter plot from @mclachbot.com
Profile shows percentile ranking (size of slice) vs Champ midfielders
Scatter plot:
- X Axis: Tackle + Interceptions
- Y Axis: Prog. Pass Distance
- Size: Mins played
- Colour: # of Recoveries
Also see: fbref.com/en/players/a...
Profile shows percentile ranking (size of slice) vs Champ midfielders
Scatter plot:
- X Axis: Tackle + Interceptions
- Y Axis: Prog. Pass Distance
- Size: Mins played
- Colour: # of Recoveries
Also see: fbref.com/en/players/a...
Below is from @analyticsoxford.bsky.social pre-Millwall
Only behind for 6.22% of matches so far this season
#SAFC | #EFL
Only behind for 6.22% of matches so far this season
#SAFC | #EFL
November 25, 2024 at 5:55 PM
Below is from @analyticsoxford.bsky.social pre-Millwall
Only behind for 6.22% of matches so far this season
#SAFC | #EFL
Only behind for 6.22% of matches so far this season
#SAFC | #EFL
November 23, 2024 at 6:07 PM
Our Expected Threat Difference (change in probability of scoring as the ball moves closer to the opponent’s goal) so far this season 👇
Spot the Oxford game 😅
Spot the Oxford game 😅
November 22, 2024 at 4:52 PM
Our Expected Threat Difference (change in probability of scoring as the ball moves closer to the opponent’s goal) so far this season 👇
Spot the Oxford game 😅
Spot the Oxford game 😅
🔴 #SAFC Cumulative xGA ⚪
Sunderland's cumulative Expected Goals Against so far this season
🔺Repeated spikes in the final 20-30 minutes of matches
🔺Preston and Leeds aside, we are consistently much stronger in the first half
🔺Pummelled by Leeds from 21st - 28th minute, following Piroe's goal
Sunderland's cumulative Expected Goals Against so far this season
🔺Repeated spikes in the final 20-30 minutes of matches
🔺Preston and Leeds aside, we are consistently much stronger in the first half
🔺Pummelled by Leeds from 21st - 28th minute, following Piroe's goal
November 22, 2024 at 4:16 PM
🔴 #SAFC Cumulative xGA ⚪
Sunderland's cumulative Expected Goals Against so far this season
🔺Repeated spikes in the final 20-30 minutes of matches
🔺Preston and Leeds aside, we are consistently much stronger in the first half
🔺Pummelled by Leeds from 21st - 28th minute, following Piroe's goal
Sunderland's cumulative Expected Goals Against so far this season
🔺Repeated spikes in the final 20-30 minutes of matches
🔺Preston and Leeds aside, we are consistently much stronger in the first half
🔺Pummelled by Leeds from 21st - 28th minute, following Piroe's goal
Here's an alternative style 👇
The charts and tables would be interactive on the Substack page, so people could filter, search, and highlight for more detail
The charts and tables would be interactive on the Substack page, so people could filter, search, and highlight for more detail
November 22, 2024 at 2:12 PM
Here's an alternative style 👇
The charts and tables would be interactive on the Substack page, so people could filter, search, and highlight for more detail
The charts and tables would be interactive on the Substack page, so people could filter, search, and highlight for more detail
🔴 #SAFC PASS TYPES ⚪
📊 What types of passes have Sunderland made against different opponents? (Short / Medium / Long)
🔺For future Substack pieces, I want to start including interactive visuals, charts, and graphs
🔺Please let me know what you think of the style and any stats you would like to see!
📊 What types of passes have Sunderland made against different opponents? (Short / Medium / Long)
🔺For future Substack pieces, I want to start including interactive visuals, charts, and graphs
🔺Please let me know what you think of the style and any stats you would like to see!
November 22, 2024 at 1:21 PM
🔴 #SAFC PASS TYPES ⚪
📊 What types of passes have Sunderland made against different opponents? (Short / Medium / Long)
🔺For future Substack pieces, I want to start including interactive visuals, charts, and graphs
🔺Please let me know what you think of the style and any stats you would like to see!
📊 What types of passes have Sunderland made against different opponents? (Short / Medium / Long)
🔺For future Substack pieces, I want to start including interactive visuals, charts, and graphs
🔺Please let me know what you think of the style and any stats you would like to see!
Some good visuals in here from Opta Analyst
As mentioned in my preview piece, it's Bryan and Honeyman predominantly on corners, both in-swinging on their stronger foot
Saville deputising on the left side occasionally with out-swingers
open.substack.com/pub/novocast...
#SAFC | #EFL
As mentioned in my preview piece, it's Bryan and Honeyman predominantly on corners, both in-swinging on their stronger foot
Saville deputising on the left side occasionally with out-swingers
open.substack.com/pub/novocast...
#SAFC | #EFL
November 22, 2024 at 12:40 PM
Some good visuals in here from Opta Analyst
As mentioned in my preview piece, it's Bryan and Honeyman predominantly on corners, both in-swinging on their stronger foot
Saville deputising on the left side occasionally with out-swingers
open.substack.com/pub/novocast...
#SAFC | #EFL
As mentioned in my preview piece, it's Bryan and Honeyman predominantly on corners, both in-swinging on their stronger foot
Saville deputising on the left side occasionally with out-swingers
open.substack.com/pub/novocast...
#SAFC | #EFL
Googled him and this was the first photo 😅
November 21, 2024 at 10:08 AM
Googled him and this was the first photo 😅
Yep, and 60 minutes in the EFL cup where we beat MK Dons 4-2 prior to reaching the final in 2014
He was meant to be a tidy defensive midfielder, who'd made it to the semi-finals of the Europa league the season before
Unfortunately joined with the rest of Di Canio's horde of signings and fell away
He was meant to be a tidy defensive midfielder, who'd made it to the semi-finals of the Europa league the season before
Unfortunately joined with the rest of Di Canio's horde of signings and fell away
November 21, 2024 at 10:02 AM
Yep, and 60 minutes in the EFL cup where we beat MK Dons 4-2 prior to reaching the final in 2014
He was meant to be a tidy defensive midfielder, who'd made it to the semi-finals of the Europa league the season before
Unfortunately joined with the rest of Di Canio's horde of signings and fell away
He was meant to be a tidy defensive midfielder, who'd made it to the semi-finals of the Europa league the season before
Unfortunately joined with the rest of Di Canio's horde of signings and fell away
Similar, Connolly in for Mayenda as a Right Winger
November 20, 2024 at 9:11 PM
Similar, Connolly in for Mayenda as a Right Winger
🔴ANALYSIS DEEP-DIVE⚪
🔍 Millwall's Game Model
✍️ In my first long-form Substack piece, we look at what Millwall's stats can teach us about their style of play
open.substack.com/pub/novocast...
2700 words, packed with insights & analysis 📊
Please like + repost if you enjoy!
#SAFC | #EFL
🔍 Millwall's Game Model
✍️ In my first long-form Substack piece, we look at what Millwall's stats can teach us about their style of play
open.substack.com/pub/novocast...
2700 words, packed with insights & analysis 📊
Please like + repost if you enjoy!
#SAFC | #EFL
November 20, 2024 at 8:47 PM
🔴ANALYSIS DEEP-DIVE⚪
🔍 Millwall's Game Model
✍️ In my first long-form Substack piece, we look at what Millwall's stats can teach us about their style of play
open.substack.com/pub/novocast...
2700 words, packed with insights & analysis 📊
Please like + repost if you enjoy!
#SAFC | #EFL
🔍 Millwall's Game Model
✍️ In my first long-form Substack piece, we look at what Millwall's stats can teach us about their style of play
open.substack.com/pub/novocast...
2700 words, packed with insights & analysis 📊
Please like + repost if you enjoy!
#SAFC | #EFL
I think he sees the relationships in the system as quite delicate - changing only by necessity
Hume-Roberts-Rigg triangle & the [Jobe/Browne]-Cirkin link are the most important parts of the team
Problem is that Aleksic is more Rigg than Jobe, & we may need to use two DMs in buildup with Hume out
Hume-Roberts-Rigg triangle & the [Jobe/Browne]-Cirkin link are the most important parts of the team
Problem is that Aleksic is more Rigg than Jobe, & we may need to use two DMs in buildup with Hume out
November 19, 2024 at 4:04 PM
I think he sees the relationships in the system as quite delicate - changing only by necessity
Hume-Roberts-Rigg triangle & the [Jobe/Browne]-Cirkin link are the most important parts of the team
Problem is that Aleksic is more Rigg than Jobe, & we may need to use two DMs in buildup with Hume out
Hume-Roberts-Rigg triangle & the [Jobe/Browne]-Cirkin link are the most important parts of the team
Problem is that Aleksic is more Rigg than Jobe, & we may need to use two DMs in buildup with Hume out
