Noble Francis
@noblefrancis.bsky.social
Economics Director at the CPA, PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor at the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. Tweets on construction & housebuilding.
Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
Reposted by Noble Francis
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 9:40 AM
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
This is not suggestive of ‘build, build, build’.
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:23 AM
This is not suggestive of ‘build, build, build’.
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 9:40 AM
UK construction employment was 2.05 million in 2025 Q3; 1.3% lower than in Q2 & 4.1% lower than in Q1, before the house building slowdown & employers’ National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, in April, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 9:41 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 9:41 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade (DBT) covers September 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
October 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
October 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Long thread on house building... Clearly, the government's 1.5 million new homes in England in the 5-year parliament isn’t going to happen, & everyone in the industry knows it, even if the new Secretary of State keeps repeating it. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Reposted by Noble Francis
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
October 7, 2025 at 8:33 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
October 7, 2025 at 8:33 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Total house building activity in June 2025 was 0.8% higher than in May (after May's 1.0% fall) & 2.7% higher than a low base a year ago but still 17.5% lower than the recent peak in October 2022, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
August 14, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Total house building activity in June 2025 was 0.8% higher than in May (after May's 1.0% fall) & 2.7% higher than a low base a year ago but still 17.5% lower than the recent peak in October 2022, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
Reposted by Noble Francis
There were 2.08 people employed in UK construction in 2025 Q2, which is 2.9% lower than in 2025 Q1 & only 0.6% higher than the low base a year ago, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
August 12, 2025 at 8:44 AM
There were 2.08 people employed in UK construction in 2025 Q2, which is 2.9% lower than in 2025 Q1 & only 0.6% higher than the low base a year ago, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
There were 2.08 people employed in UK construction in 2025 Q2, which is 2.9% lower than in 2025 Q1 & only 0.6% higher than the low base a year ago, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
August 12, 2025 at 8:44 AM
There were 2.08 people employed in UK construction in 2025 Q2, which is 2.9% lower than in 2025 Q1 & only 0.6% higher than the low base a year ago, according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in June 2025 were 1.0% lower than in May & 16.3% higher than a low base a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
August 6, 2025 at 8:49 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in June 2025 were 1.0% lower than in May & 16.3% higher than a low base a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
The number of new house building registrations in the UK in 2025 Q2 was 4% higher than a low base a year ago according to NHBC (which covers around 70% of the house building sector) but... (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
July 31, 2025 at 10:22 AM
The number of new house building registrations in the UK in 2025 Q2 was 4% higher than a low base a year ago according to NHBC (which covers around 70% of the house building sector) but... (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
Reposted by Noble Francis
What is the point of owning a mansion in Mayfair?
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
My latest article for the FT: on.ft.com/4lTCOBf
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
My latest article for the FT: on.ft.com/4lTCOBf
What is the point of owning a mansion in Mayfair?
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
on.ft.com
July 31, 2025 at 5:41 AM
What is the point of owning a mansion in Mayfair?
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
My latest article for the FT: on.ft.com/4lTCOBf
London’s luxury property market has bigger problems than the ‘exodus’ of wealthy non-doms
My latest article for the FT: on.ft.com/4lTCOBf
Reposted by Noble Francis
House building activity in May 2025 was 1.3% lower than in April, only 0.6% higher than a low base a year ago & it was still 19.1% lower than it was at the recent peak in October 2022 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
July 11, 2025 at 8:34 AM
House building activity in May 2025 was 1.3% lower than in April, only 0.6% higher than a low base a year ago & it was still 19.1% lower than it was at the recent peak in October 2022 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
House building activity in May 2025 was 1.3% lower than in April, only 0.6% higher than a low base a year ago & it was still 19.1% lower than it was at the recent peak in October 2022 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
July 11, 2025 at 8:34 AM
House building activity in May 2025 was 1.3% lower than in April, only 0.6% higher than a low base a year ago & it was still 19.1% lower than it was at the recent peak in October 2022 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
Reposted by Noble Francis
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data. Deliveries in May 2025 were 10.6% higher than in April & 15.3% higher than a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
July 2, 2025 at 8:41 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data. Deliveries in May 2025 were 10.6% higher than in April & 15.3% higher than a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data. Deliveries in May 2025 were 10.6% higher than in April & 15.3% higher than a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
July 2, 2025 at 8:41 AM
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data. Deliveries in May 2025 were 10.6% higher than in April & 15.3% higher than a year ago according to the Deparment for Business & Trade. (1/n)
#ukhousing
#ukhousing
Reposted by Noble Francis
House building activity in April 2025 was 0.9% higher than in March & 5.7% higher than a low base a year ago but it was still 17.1% lower than it was 3 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data this morning. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
June 12, 2025 at 8:01 AM
House building activity in April 2025 was 0.9% higher than in March & 5.7% higher than a low base a year ago but it was still 17.1% lower than it was 3 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data this morning. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
Reposted by Noble Francis
you will have read that Labour is doubling investment in social housing
in the long term this is true if 1) you compare it to the Tories and 2) if Labour win the next general election
but new allocations for next 3 years are *lower* than this year
www.ft.com/content/92a1...
in the long term this is true if 1) you compare it to the Tories and 2) if Labour win the next general election
but new allocations for next 3 years are *lower* than this year
www.ft.com/content/92a1...
England’s social housing funds ‘less generous’ than £39bn settlement suggests
Analysis indicates spending of about £3bn a year until 2029, similar to AHP’s money for current financial year
www.ft.com
June 12, 2025 at 10:39 AM
you will have read that Labour is doubling investment in social housing
in the long term this is true if 1) you compare it to the Tories and 2) if Labour win the next general election
but new allocations for next 3 years are *lower* than this year
www.ft.com/content/92a1...
in the long term this is true if 1) you compare it to the Tories and 2) if Labour win the next general election
but new allocations for next 3 years are *lower* than this year
www.ft.com/content/92a1...
Reposted by Noble Francis
Agree LAs and HAs are focused on existing stock but also understand quality of S106 homes by house builders is why some HAs don’t want to buy them. HAs focused on long term quality for their residents inc low energy bills. Private sector S106 homes not all delivering that.
June 12, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Agree LAs and HAs are focused on existing stock but also understand quality of S106 homes by house builders is why some HAs don’t want to buy them. HAs focused on long term quality for their residents inc low energy bills. Private sector S106 homes not all delivering that.
House building activity in April 2025 was 0.9% higher than in March & 5.7% higher than a low base a year ago but it was still 17.1% lower than it was 3 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data this morning. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
June 12, 2025 at 8:01 AM
House building activity in April 2025 was 0.9% higher than in March & 5.7% higher than a low base a year ago but it was still 17.1% lower than it was 3 years ago according to the latest ONS construction output data this morning. (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
#ukhousing #housing
Reposted by Noble Francis
Review of "Green Book" looks designed to favour investment in particular areas rather than where economic return is greatest. Good news for North and Midlands. Bad news for London and South East.
June 11, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Review of "Green Book" looks designed to favour investment in particular areas rather than where economic return is greatest. Good news for North and Midlands. Bad news for London and South East.
The Chancellor repeats the leaked announcment of £39 billion for the Affordable Homes Programme 2026-36 but doesn't say how many new homes (& especially how many social homes rather than so-called 'affordable' homes) that will provide.
#SpendingReview
#SpendingReview
June 11, 2025 at 11:58 AM
The Chancellor repeats the leaked announcment of £39 billion for the Affordable Homes Programme 2026-36 but doesn't say how many new homes (& especially how many social homes rather than so-called 'affordable' homes) that will provide.
#SpendingReview
#SpendingReview