Noble Francis
@noblefrancis.bsky.social
Economics Director at the CPA, PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor at the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. Tweets on construction & housebuilding.
Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
... the trend of old-age demographic UK construction workers retiring early has accelerated since 2019 Q1 & they are also unlikely to return. My LinkedIn post last year on that trend in UK construction employment is below. (15/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
www.linkedin.com/posts/fnoble...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
www.linkedin.com/posts/fnoble...
#ukhousing #housing #ukhousingmarket #housingmarket #ukrealestate #realestate #ukconstruction #ukbuilders #construction #builders #constructionuk #buildersuk #building #ukbuilding #buildinguk… | Noble...
An illustration of the age-demographic problem in the UK construction workforce and the rapid acceleration of the problem since 2019 Q1, based on the latest detailed breakdown of the employment data f...
www.linkedin.com
November 11, 2025 at 10:58 AM
... the trend of old-age demographic UK construction workers retiring early has accelerated since 2019 Q1 & they are also unlikely to return. My LinkedIn post last year on that trend in UK construction employment is below. (15/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
www.linkedin.com/posts/fnoble...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
www.linkedin.com/posts/fnoble...
... construction workers will not return even when demand recovers & wages rise as they have been burnt by construction & they remain in other industries where activity is more stable & there is greater job security. Plus,... (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:51 AM
... construction workers will not return even when demand recovers & wages rise as they have been burnt by construction & they remain in other industries where activity is more stable & there is greater job security. Plus,... (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... at the same time, private sector will also be investing in data centres, gigafactories & refurbishing existing commercial building. The UK construction workforce won't be there even medium-term, especially as a considerable proportion of... (13/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:47 AM
... at the same time, private sector will also be investing in data centres, gigafactories & refurbishing existing commercial building. The UK construction workforce won't be there even medium-term, especially as a considerable proportion of... (13/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... never mind any of government's house building targets, especially given that, at the same time, during the next 3-5 years, the need to build more & better quality schools, hospitals, prisons, energy & transport infrastructure, plus,... (12/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:43 AM
... never mind any of government's house building targets, especially given that, at the same time, during the next 3-5 years, the need to build more & better quality schools, hospitals, prisons, energy & transport infrastructure, plus,... (12/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... as house building & construction demand recovers in the next 3-5 years, then activity will be highly constrained by a key lack of skills & experience, so even building 2019's house building levels will be incredibly difficult,... (11/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:31 AM
... as house building & construction demand recovers in the next 3-5 years, then activity will be highly constrained by a key lack of skills & experience, so even building 2019's house building levels will be incredibly difficult,... (11/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
The key problem is that the longer UK construction employment remains at historically low levels, the greater the permanent loss of skills & experience as those made unemployed move to other sectors or retire early, which means that... (10/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:22 AM
The key problem is that the longer UK construction employment remains at historically low levels, the greater the permanent loss of skills & experience as those made unemployed move to other sectors or retire early, which means that... (10/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... there has been little sign of a pickup in activity & new house building & construction contracts in September & October, & given Winter tends to be quiet, construction employment is likely to remain historically low until at least 2026 Q2. (9/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:18 AM
... there has been little sign of a pickup in activity & new house building & construction contracts in September & October, & given Winter tends to be quiet, construction employment is likely to remain historically low until at least 2026 Q2. (9/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
However, the biggest drivers of the most recent falls in UK construction employment have been the fall in activity in housing new build, continued subdued activity in private housing rm&i & the fall in new build commercial & given that... (8/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:16 AM
However, the biggest drivers of the most recent falls in UK construction employment have been the fall in activity in housing new build, continued subdued activity in private housing rm&i & the fall in new build commercial & given that... (8/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Also note that if government cuts employees' National Insurance Contributions whilst simultaneously raising income tax in the upcoming Autumn Budget, that will adversely affect the 41% of the total construction workforce that is self-employed. (7/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Also note that if government cuts employees' National Insurance Contributions whilst simultaneously raising income tax in the upcoming Autumn Budget, that will adversely affect the 41% of the total construction workforce that is self-employed. (7/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... since the government's announcement of the employers' National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, at the last Autumn Budget, the sharper falls have unsurprisingly been in construction employees, more so than the self-employed. (6/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 10:06 AM
... since the government's announcement of the employers' National Insurance Contributions rise, & lower thresholds, at the last Autumn Budget, the sharper falls have unsurprisingly been in construction employees, more so than the self-employed. (6/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... the combination of the impact of the rise in employers' National Insurance Contributions, & lower thresholds, on construction wage bills & the impact of the high degree of uncertainty on firms in the lead up to the government's Autumn Budget. (4/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 9:57 AM
... the combination of the impact of the rise in employers' National Insurance Contributions, & lower thresholds, on construction wage bills & the impact of the high degree of uncertainty on firms in the lead up to the government's Autumn Budget. (4/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Falls in UK construction employment in 2025 Q3 were mainly due to the slowdown in house building, the largest sector, since April, plus continued subdued activity in private housing repair, maintenance & improvement, the 2nd largest sector, &... (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Falls in UK construction employment in 2025 Q3 were mainly due to the slowdown in house building, the largest sector, since April, plus continued subdued activity in private housing repair, maintenance & improvement, the 2nd largest sector, &... (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK construction employment in 2025 Q3 was also 15.1% lower than at the post-financial crisis peak in 2019 Q1 before the major disruptions, 20.5% lower than at the pre-financial crisis peak in 2008 Q3 & at its lowest level for 25 years. (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 11, 2025 at 9:46 AM
UK construction employment in 2025 Q3 was also 15.1% lower than at the post-financial crisis peak in 2019 Q1 before the major disruptions, 20.5% lower than at the pre-financial crisis peak in 2008 Q3 & at its lowest level for 25 years. (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Overall, house building levels in 2025 are likely to be similar to last year's & next year's are likely to be similar to this year's or single-digit higher (& that is even before the impact of the Autumn Budget tax rises on homebuyer demand). (21/END)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Overall, house building levels in 2025 are likely to be similar to last year's & next year's are likely to be similar to this year's or single-digit higher (& that is even before the impact of the Autumn Budget tax rises on homebuyer demand). (21/END)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Plus, housing associations & councils are more focused on dealing with issues on their existing stock, such as basic living conditions, fire safety remediation & decarbonisation), they're not focused on buying S106 or build themselves. (20/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Plus, housing associations & councils are more focused on dealing with issues on their existing stock, such as basic living conditions, fire safety remediation & decarbonisation), they're not focused on buying S106 or build themselves. (20/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Housing associations & councils have had government's announcement of £39 billion over 10 years, backloaded to the final 5 years & without the detail of grant per unit, so they still cannot plan, never mind increase house building near-term &... (19/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Housing associations & councils have had government's announcement of £39 billion over 10 years, backloaded to the final 5 years & without the detail of grant per unit, so they still cannot plan, never mind increase house building near-term &... (19/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
House building from housing associations & council has fallen this year as they have been highly financially constrained, which has been exacerbated by a hiatus due to uncertainty over medium-term funding earlier in the year. (18/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 10:58 AM
House building from housing associations & council has fallen this year as they have been highly financially constrained, which has been exacerbated by a hiatus due to uncertainty over medium-term funding earlier in the year. (18/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
For SME house builders in some parts of the country, site viability is less of an issue despite government's additional costs, due to higher average house prices but in these areas demand and affordability are the key constraints. (17/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 10:55 AM
For SME house builders in some parts of the country, site viability is less of an issue despite government's additional costs, due to higher average house prices but in these areas demand and affordability are the key constraints. (17/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... SME house builders are disproportionately affected by government's additional costs on house building as they are spreading the costs over fewer homes & government will be increasing house building costs further in the next 12-18 months). (16/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 10:53 AM
... SME house builders are disproportionately affected by government's additional costs on house building as they are spreading the costs over fewer homes & government will be increasing house building costs further in the next 12-18 months). (16/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
SME house builders in some areas with better affordability see demand has been sustained but site viability is not there as they are disproportionately affected by some of the long list of additional costs on house building from government &... (15/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 10:49 AM
SME house builders in some areas with better affordability see demand has been sustained but site viability is not there as they are disproportionately affected by some of the long list of additional costs on house building from government &... (15/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... new resi building & site viability in London was also affected by a requirement for 35% of developments to be affordable housing. This changed at 2 weeks ago but the detail & practical impact of this on new developments will take time. (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
November 5, 2025 at 10:42 AM
... new resi building & site viability in London was also affected by a requirement for 35% of developments to be affordable housing. This changed at 2 weeks ago but the detail & practical impact of this on new developments will take time. (14/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
#ukhousing #ukconstruction