Noam Reich
@noamreich.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Political Science
at Yale University. I research diplomacy and conflict. Israeli.
at Yale University. I research diplomacy and conflict. Israeli.
Reposted by Noam Reich
Breaking News: Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Princeton graduate student taken hostage in Iraq, has been freed after more than two years of captivity.
Elizabeth Tsurkov, Princeton Student, Is Released From Iraq, Trump Says
Iraq’s prime minister also confirmed the release of Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Russian-Israeli graduate student kidnapped in Iraq in 2023 by Kataib Hezbollah, a militant group.
nyti.ms
September 9, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Breaking News: Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Princeton graduate student taken hostage in Iraq, has been freed after more than two years of captivity.
Reposted by Noam Reich
Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing
As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements
This is a big deal
As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements
This is a big deal
August 2, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing
As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements
This is a big deal
As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements
This is a big deal
Reposted by Noam Reich
The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House.
When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.
For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.
For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
July 9, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House.
When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.
For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.
For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
Reposted by Noam Reich
the insinuation here that Levitsky’s politics might influence his scholarship has the causation exactly backwards
there is something quite close to unanimity among serious scholars on this point, but the Washington Post omits that in favor of highlighting one such scholar's donations to Democratic candidates
June 12, 2025 at 1:54 AM
the insinuation here that Levitsky’s politics might influence his scholarship has the causation exactly backwards
Reposted by Noam Reich
Our call for the 2025 Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) Annual Meeting on Geostrategic Opportunity and Upheaval on October 9-10 is up! Submissions due on June 16. W/ Yuri Zhukov @laiabalcells.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social @renardsexton.bsky.social More here: esoc.princeton.edu/events/2025/...
Call for Papers and Policy Panel Proposals: 2025 ESOC Annual Meeting
CALL FOR PAPERS AND POLICY PANEL PROPOSALSSubmission Deadline: June 16, 2025The Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) Project is holding its Annual Meeting October 9-10, 2025 in Washington D.C.The Annu...
esoc.princeton.edu
May 7, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Our call for the 2025 Empirical Studies of Conflict (ESOC) Annual Meeting on Geostrategic Opportunity and Upheaval on October 9-10 is up! Submissions due on June 16. W/ Yuri Zhukov @laiabalcells.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social @renardsexton.bsky.social More here: esoc.princeton.edu/events/2025/...
Reposted by Noam Reich
This is what happens when you ask me to indulge your false equivalencies about the Trump tariffs.
April 5, 2025 at 4:30 PM
This is what happens when you ask me to indulge your false equivalencies about the Trump tariffs.
Reposted by Noam Reich
🚨Why do masses support democratic backsliding?🚨
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
March 24, 2025 at 5:28 PM
🚨Why do masses support democratic backsliding?🚨
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization.
doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
Reposted by Noam Reich
If you accept that non-citizens have no right to due process, you are accepting that citizens have no right to due process. All the government has to do is claim that you are not a citizen; without due process you have no chance to prove the contrary.
March 24, 2025 at 10:18 PM
If you accept that non-citizens have no right to due process, you are accepting that citizens have no right to due process. All the government has to do is claim that you are not a citizen; without due process you have no chance to prove the contrary.
Reposted by Noam Reich
Patricia Bauman died a year ago.
ActBlue is a payment processor. Almost anyone who’s given to a D candidate in the last 20 years could be mischaracterized as a “ActBlue funder.”
Listing five Jews, two of whom are long dead, as “ActBlue funders” secretly behind the Tesla protests is antisemitism.
ActBlue is a payment processor. Almost anyone who’s given to a D candidate in the last 20 years could be mischaracterized as a “ActBlue funder.”
Listing five Jews, two of whom are long dead, as “ActBlue funders” secretly behind the Tesla protests is antisemitism.
Musk is blaming "Herbert Sandler," among others, for secretly financing the protests and Tesla dealerships over the last few weeks.
Sandler died in 2019.
Sandler died in 2019.
March 9, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Patricia Bauman died a year ago.
ActBlue is a payment processor. Almost anyone who’s given to a D candidate in the last 20 years could be mischaracterized as a “ActBlue funder.”
Listing five Jews, two of whom are long dead, as “ActBlue funders” secretly behind the Tesla protests is antisemitism.
ActBlue is a payment processor. Almost anyone who’s given to a D candidate in the last 20 years could be mischaracterized as a “ActBlue funder.”
Listing five Jews, two of whom are long dead, as “ActBlue funders” secretly behind the Tesla protests is antisemitism.
Reposted by Noam Reich
Forthcoming at the Journal of Political Economy: We find that consumer product markups increased more than 25 percent from 2006 to 2019.
One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.
One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.
March 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Forthcoming at the Journal of Political Economy: We find that consumer product markups increased more than 25 percent from 2006 to 2019.
One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.
One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.
Reposted by Noam Reich
As another Trump-induced market crisis unfolds from tariffs, it's time we ask "What's the Matter with Billionaires?" I've run the numbers. Billionaires do better under Dems. So why do billionaires keep supporting GOP policies against their economic interests? See my latest piece on why. (TLDR 🧵⬇️)
What's the Matter with Billionaires?
How America's wealthiest sabotage their own prosperity (and ours) to avoid paying taxes
open.substack.com
March 4, 2025 at 8:00 PM
As another Trump-induced market crisis unfolds from tariffs, it's time we ask "What's the Matter with Billionaires?" I've run the numbers. Billionaires do better under Dems. So why do billionaires keep supporting GOP policies against their economic interests? See my latest piece on why. (TLDR 🧵⬇️)
Reposted by Noam Reich
This is it. The plausible scenario is not that the 2028 elections don’t happen. It’s that they happen with every financial oligarch and major corporation backing the GOP. And every major media organization backing the GOP, except for The NY Times which is trying to be neutral.
Ominously plausible warnings from @filipecampante.bsky.social of what our descent into competitive authoritarianism could look like
March 3, 2025 at 1:58 AM
This is it. The plausible scenario is not that the 2028 elections don’t happen. It’s that they happen with every financial oligarch and major corporation backing the GOP. And every major media organization backing the GOP, except for The NY Times which is trying to be neutral.
Reposted by Noam Reich
Extraordinary story the Wall Street Journal.
X is threatening advertisers that if they don’t spend more, Elon Musk will use his influence in government to block company mergers.
That’s extortion.
X is threatening advertisers that if they don’t spend more, Elon Musk will use his influence in government to block company mergers.
That’s extortion.
February 20, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Extraordinary story the Wall Street Journal.
X is threatening advertisers that if they don’t spend more, Elon Musk will use his influence in government to block company mergers.
That’s extortion.
X is threatening advertisers that if they don’t spend more, Elon Musk will use his influence in government to block company mergers.
That’s extortion.
Reposted by Noam Reich
The measles outbreak in Texas is reminding me of the public letter Roald Dahl wrote about losing his daughter to measles in 1962, just before the vaccine was publicly available.
February 15, 2025 at 5:49 PM
The measles outbreak in Texas is reminding me of the public letter Roald Dahl wrote about losing his daughter to measles in 1962, just before the vaccine was publicly available.
Reposted by Noam Reich
I have a new piece in @ForeignAffairs titled, "The Post-Neoliberal Delusion and the Tragedy of Bidenomics". They were generous about giving me a lot of words but were less generous with charts--so this long thread partially rectifies that. (And links to the piece at the end.)
February 10, 2025 at 9:24 PM
I have a new piece in @ForeignAffairs titled, "The Post-Neoliberal Delusion and the Tragedy of Bidenomics". They were generous about giving me a lot of words but were less generous with charts--so this long thread partially rectifies that. (And links to the piece at the end.)
Reposted by Noam Reich
For Jared Golden, a Dem in a R+9 district, to be talking like this is actually remarkable. probably gets at some underlying unpopularity of Musk *even relative to Trump*
February 5, 2025 at 1:03 AM
For Jared Golden, a Dem in a R+9 district, to be talking like this is actually remarkable. probably gets at some underlying unpopularity of Musk *even relative to Trump*
Reposted by Noam Reich
An unelected shadow government is conducting a hostile takeover of the federal government.
DOGE is not a real government agency.
DOGE has no authority to make spending decisions.
DOGE has no authority to shut programs down or to ignore federal law.
DOGE’s conduct cannot be allowed to stand.
DOGE is not a real government agency.
DOGE has no authority to make spending decisions.
DOGE has no authority to shut programs down or to ignore federal law.
DOGE’s conduct cannot be allowed to stand.
February 3, 2025 at 11:27 PM
An unelected shadow government is conducting a hostile takeover of the federal government.
DOGE is not a real government agency.
DOGE has no authority to make spending decisions.
DOGE has no authority to shut programs down or to ignore federal law.
DOGE’s conduct cannot be allowed to stand.
DOGE is not a real government agency.
DOGE has no authority to make spending decisions.
DOGE has no authority to shut programs down or to ignore federal law.
DOGE’s conduct cannot be allowed to stand.
Reposted by Noam Reich
Your daughter has died serving her country, and now you have to hide her identity because the President and his supporters will predictably scapegoat her for the accident.
"A U.S. military official told NPR on Friday that at the request of the family the Army is not going to release the name of the female member of the three-person helicopter crew." www.npr.org/2025/01/30/n...
Army withholds name of Black Hawk helicopter crew in D.C. crash, 2 others identified
A U.S. military official told NPR on Friday that at the request of the family the Army is not going to release the name of the female crew member. The withholding of the name is a highly unusual move.
www.npr.org
February 1, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Your daughter has died serving her country, and now you have to hide her identity because the President and his supporters will predictably scapegoat her for the accident.
Reposted by Noam Reich
I've recently been talking a bit about how difficult it is to carefully check even well-written mathematics. I want to try to explain something about this by telling the story of some errors in the literature that (in part) led to the two papers below. 1/n
January 1, 2025 at 10:28 PM
I've recently been talking a bit about how difficult it is to carefully check even well-written mathematics. I want to try to explain something about this by telling the story of some errors in the literature that (in part) led to the two papers below. 1/n
Reposted by Noam Reich
you can choose to believe Elon is too dumb to understand tariffs and/or international negotiations work or you can choose to believe he is a billionaire car company owner who benefits from tariffs on competitors’ cars made in Mexico/Canada
November 26, 2024 at 12:38 AM
you can choose to believe Elon is too dumb to understand tariffs and/or international negotiations work or you can choose to believe he is a billionaire car company owner who benefits from tariffs on competitors’ cars made in Mexico/Canada
In a shocking intelligence failure, Hamas operatives have crossed the border and infiltrated several Israeli border towns. Some a few km from the border. War seems imminent.
October 7, 2023 at 5:53 AM
In a shocking intelligence failure, Hamas operatives have crossed the border and infiltrated several Israeli border towns. Some a few km from the border. War seems imminent.