Nick Korte
@nickkorte.bsky.social
Content is focused on:
•NFL contract analysis, especially toward the Denver Broncos
•Over The Cap contributor
•Being the Compensatory Picks Guy™
https://thinair.football
•NFL contract analysis, especially toward the Denver Broncos
•Over The Cap contributor
•Being the Compensatory Picks Guy™
https://thinair.football
From @Jason_OTC --I've highlighted the Broncos' WRs in this version.
December 4, 2025 at 4:31 PM
From @Jason_OTC --I've highlighted the Broncos' WRs in this version.
Teams with no option bonuses in their contracts: NE, HOU, KC, LV, NYG, CHI, ATL, CAR, NO, TB.
Teams with only one option bonus: the Seahawks (Julian Love), the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), and the Steelers, but theirs came via trade (Jalen Ramsey).
Teams with only one option bonus: the Seahawks (Julian Love), the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), and the Steelers, but theirs came via trade (Jalen Ramsey).
December 4, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Teams with no option bonuses in their contracts: NE, HOU, KC, LV, NYG, CHI, ATL, CAR, NO, TB.
Teams with only one option bonus: the Seahawks (Julian Love), the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), and the Steelers, but theirs came via trade (Jalen Ramsey).
Teams with only one option bonus: the Seahawks (Julian Love), the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), and the Steelers, but theirs came via trade (Jalen Ramsey).
Teams with most option bonuses in contracts:
1. PHI: 39
2. DEN: 37
3. SF: 27
T-4. DET/CLE: 21
6. BUF: 12
7. BAL: 11
8. JAX: 10
T-9. MIA/CIN: 8
1. PHI: 39
2. DEN: 37
3. SF: 27
T-4. DET/CLE: 21
6. BUF: 12
7. BAL: 11
8. JAX: 10
T-9. MIA/CIN: 8
December 4, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Teams with most option bonuses in contracts:
1. PHI: 39
2. DEN: 37
3. SF: 27
T-4. DET/CLE: 21
6. BUF: 12
7. BAL: 11
8. JAX: 10
T-9. MIA/CIN: 8
1. PHI: 39
2. DEN: 37
3. SF: 27
T-4. DET/CLE: 21
6. BUF: 12
7. BAL: 11
8. JAX: 10
T-9. MIA/CIN: 8
I talk more about what this means for understanding NFL roster management here, along with an idea for reducing the complication.
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/12/04/the-broncos-are-on-the-cutting-edge-of-cap-dollar-allocation/
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/12/04/the-broncos-are-on-the-cutting-edge-of-cap-dollar-allocation/
December 4, 2025 at 3:55 PM
I talk more about what this means for understanding NFL roster management here, along with an idea for reducing the complication.
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/12/04/the-broncos-are-on-the-cutting-edge-of-cap-dollar-allocation/
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/12/04/the-broncos-are-on-the-cutting-edge-of-cap-dollar-allocation/
The Broncos have really been working the potential of option bonuses and void years to gain extensive flexibility for cap dollar management.
But it leads to some very complicated and opaque contracts to understand, as can be plainly seen here.
But it leads to some very complicated and opaque contracts to understand, as can be plainly seen here.
December 4, 2025 at 3:54 PM
The Broncos have really been working the potential of option bonuses and void years to gain extensive flexibility for cap dollar management.
But it leads to some very complicated and opaque contracts to understand, as can be plainly seen here.
But it leads to some very complicated and opaque contracts to understand, as can be plainly seen here.
Ravens observers and fans will know better than I do, but I was surprised that Mark Andrews got extended now.
I now wonder what their plan with Isaiah Likely is going to be with his contract also coming up.
I now wonder what their plan with Isaiah Likely is going to be with his contract also coming up.
December 3, 2025 at 10:45 PM
Ravens observers and fans will know better than I do, but I was surprised that Mark Andrews got extended now.
I now wonder what their plan with Isaiah Likely is going to be with his contract also coming up.
I now wonder what their plan with Isaiah Likely is going to be with his contract also coming up.
It looks like Larry Borom went back to the bench with the return of Austin Jackson, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine only logged 22% of the snaps.
Continuing to limit their snaps is what's needed for the Dolphins to avoid canceling out a 4th round 2026 compensatory pick (Jevon Holland)
Continuing to limit their snaps is what's needed for the Dolphins to avoid canceling out a 4th round 2026 compensatory pick (Jevon Holland)
December 2, 2025 at 3:33 PM
It looks like Larry Borom went back to the bench with the return of Austin Jackson, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine only logged 22% of the snaps.
Continuing to limit their snaps is what's needed for the Dolphins to avoid canceling out a 4th round 2026 compensatory pick (Jevon Holland)
Continuing to limit their snaps is what's needed for the Dolphins to avoid canceling out a 4th round 2026 compensatory pick (Jevon Holland)
Line 1 gets the Broncos to no worse than 11-6.
Lines 2 and 3 puts the PIT/BAL loser and LAC/KC loser to at least 7 losses.
And Line 4 prevents some 11-6 AFC South shenanigans where Houston wins it and IND & JAX beat Denver on head to head tiebreakers.
Lines 2 and 3 puts the PIT/BAL loser and LAC/KC loser to at least 7 losses.
And Line 4 prevents some 11-6 AFC South shenanigans where Houston wins it and IND & JAX beat Denver on head to head tiebreakers.
November 28, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Line 1 gets the Broncos to no worse than 11-6.
Lines 2 and 3 puts the PIT/BAL loser and LAC/KC loser to at least 7 losses.
And Line 4 prevents some 11-6 AFC South shenanigans where Houston wins it and IND & JAX beat Denver on head to head tiebreakers.
Lines 2 and 3 puts the PIT/BAL loser and LAC/KC loser to at least 7 losses.
And Line 4 prevents some 11-6 AFC South shenanigans where Houston wins it and IND & JAX beat Denver on head to head tiebreakers.
I'm sure the hardcore playoff scenario junkies can issue any corrections, but I believe that the Broncos can clinch a playoff spot in Week 14 if the following happens:
•2 DEN wins
•1 PIT loss [OR] 1 BAL loss
•KC loss to HOU [OR] 2 LAC losses
•IND beats HOU [AND] JAX
•2 DEN wins
•1 PIT loss [OR] 1 BAL loss
•KC loss to HOU [OR] 2 LAC losses
•IND beats HOU [AND] JAX
November 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
I'm sure the hardcore playoff scenario junkies can issue any corrections, but I believe that the Broncos can clinch a playoff spot in Week 14 if the following happens:
•2 DEN wins
•1 PIT loss [OR] 1 BAL loss
•KC loss to HOU [OR] 2 LAC losses
•IND beats HOU [AND] JAX
•2 DEN wins
•1 PIT loss [OR] 1 BAL loss
•KC loss to HOU [OR] 2 LAC losses
•IND beats HOU [AND] JAX
At $16.1M over three seasons for Wil Lutz, that APY comes in as 6th highest among kickers.
$9M in guarantees, if they are all full, comes in as 7th highest.
$9M in guarantees, if they are all full, comes in as 7th highest.
November 26, 2025 at 10:00 PM
At $16.1M over three seasons for Wil Lutz, that APY comes in as 6th highest among kickers.
$9M in guarantees, if they are all full, comes in as 7th highest.
$9M in guarantees, if they are all full, comes in as 7th highest.
Over three seasons, a top Tier C contract probably comes out to about $22.5M to $24M, that's the range that I would guess for his contract's base amount.
And we'll have to see the structure of the guarantees, as $14M would be well ahead of that Tier C I scoped out.
And we'll have to see the structure of the guarantees, as $14M would be well ahead of that Tier C I scoped out.
November 26, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Over three seasons, a top Tier C contract probably comes out to about $22.5M to $24M, that's the range that I would guess for his contract's base amount.
And we'll have to see the structure of the guarantees, as $14M would be well ahead of that Tier C I scoped out.
And we'll have to see the structure of the guarantees, as $14M would be well ahead of that Tier C I scoped out.
Back in July, I had scoped out some tiers of interior defensive lineman contracts.
The bolded were the Broncos' contracts back then.
Zach Allen got his new contract into the A tier ($25.5M APY).
I hypothesized that Malcolm Roach could get into the C tier, & now he likely has.
The bolded were the Broncos' contracts back then.
Zach Allen got his new contract into the A tier ($25.5M APY).
I hypothesized that Malcolm Roach could get into the C tier, & now he likely has.
November 26, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Back in July, I had scoped out some tiers of interior defensive lineman contracts.
The bolded were the Broncos' contracts back then.
Zach Allen got his new contract into the A tier ($25.5M APY).
I hypothesized that Malcolm Roach could get into the C tier, & now he likely has.
The bolded were the Broncos' contracts back then.
Zach Allen got his new contract into the A tier ($25.5M APY).
I hypothesized that Malcolm Roach could get into the C tier, & now he likely has.
A two year cash flow of $25M also lags behind about as much as the APY on this contract does.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1993496418338926899
It may indicate some sort of vested guarantee trigger of $2M on the third season of this extension.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1993496418338926899
It may indicate some sort of vested guarantee trigger of $2M on the third season of this extension.
November 26, 2025 at 2:01 AM
A two year cash flow of $25M also lags behind about as much as the APY on this contract does.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1993496418338926899
It may indicate some sort of vested guarantee trigger of $2M on the third season of this extension.
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1993496418338926899
It may indicate some sort of vested guarantee trigger of $2M on the third season of this extension.
Here was my look at a possible Luke Wattenberg extension back in July:
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/07/01/contract-extension-examination-luke-wattenberg/
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/07/01/contract-extension-examination-luke-wattenberg/
November 26, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Here was my look at a possible Luke Wattenberg extension back in July:
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/07/01/contract-extension-examination-luke-wattenberg/
https://contracts.thinair.football/2025/07/01/contract-extension-examination-luke-wattenberg/
I'll be curious to see the structure of the reported $27M in guarantees.
If they're all full, or close to full, then that may be where Luke Wattenberg got a concession in return for a lower APY.
If they're all full, or close to full, then that may be where Luke Wattenberg got a concession in return for a lower APY.
November 26, 2025 at 1:52 AM
I'll be curious to see the structure of the reported $27M in guarantees.
If they're all full, or close to full, then that may be where Luke Wattenberg got a concession in return for a lower APY.
If they're all full, or close to full, then that may be where Luke Wattenberg got a concession in return for a lower APY.
I had envisioned a floor for a team friendly contract to be around $13.25M APY.
To get Luke Wattenberg extended for only $12M APY strikes me as quite a bargain.
To get Luke Wattenberg extended for only $12M APY strikes me as quite a bargain.
November 26, 2025 at 1:51 AM
I had envisioned a floor for a team friendly contract to be around $13.25M APY.
To get Luke Wattenberg extended for only $12M APY strikes me as quite a bargain.
To get Luke Wattenberg extended for only $12M APY strikes me as quite a bargain.
You can visit the Rookie Contract Cash Flows on OTC here:
https://overthecap.com/rookie-contract-cash-flows
https://overthecap.com/rookie-contract-cash-flows
November 24, 2025 at 5:21 PM
You can visit the Rookie Contract Cash Flows on OTC here:
https://overthecap.com/rookie-contract-cash-flows
https://overthecap.com/rookie-contract-cash-flows
With the regular season in college football coming to an end next week, I put together a new page for Over The Cap that lists the running cash flows that each drafted rookie is slated to earn as prescribed by the CBA, along with an interactive tool to compare non-NFL earnings.
November 24, 2025 at 5:20 PM
With the regular season in college football coming to an end next week, I put together a new page for Over The Cap that lists the running cash flows that each drafted rookie is slated to earn as prescribed by the CBA, along with an interactive tool to compare non-NFL earnings.
It is amazing and outstanding how the Broncos have had a string of 4 straight excellent kickers for over 20 years now.
From Jason Elam to Matt Prater to Brandon McManus to Wil Lutz, there's been nothing to worry about this position.
From Jason Elam to Matt Prater to Brandon McManus to Wil Lutz, there's been nothing to worry about this position.
November 22, 2025 at 2:09 PM
It is amazing and outstanding how the Broncos have had a string of 4 straight excellent kickers for over 20 years now.
From Jason Elam to Matt Prater to Brandon McManus to Wil Lutz, there's been nothing to worry about this position.
From Jason Elam to Matt Prater to Brandon McManus to Wil Lutz, there's been nothing to worry about this position.
#6 for kickers would indicate that Wil Lutz got a contract somewhere around this range:
•APY: $5.4M (total: $16.2M)
•Full guarantees: $12.4M
•Cash flow: $7.8M after one season, $12.1M after two.
We'll see if the real details come close to these estimates.
•APY: $5.4M (total: $16.2M)
•Full guarantees: $12.4M
•Cash flow: $7.8M after one season, $12.1M after two.
We'll see if the real details come close to these estimates.
November 22, 2025 at 2:07 PM
#6 for kickers would indicate that Wil Lutz got a contract somewhere around this range:
•APY: $5.4M (total: $16.2M)
•Full guarantees: $12.4M
•Cash flow: $7.8M after one season, $12.1M after two.
We'll see if the real details come close to these estimates.
•APY: $5.4M (total: $16.2M)
•Full guarantees: $12.4M
•Cash flow: $7.8M after one season, $12.1M after two.
We'll see if the real details come close to these estimates.
This Brandon Aiyuk development is wild. I wouldn't expect a player to waive his right to a grievance over voided guarantees. Does he really want out of San Francisco?
November 22, 2025 at 12:24 AM
This Brandon Aiyuk development is wild. I wouldn't expect a player to waive his right to a grievance over voided guarantees. Does he really want out of San Francisco?
In the next CBA I'd like to see more of the option bonus and void year stuff formalized a bit more, so that there's more clarity on exactly what tools teams have to allocate cap dollars across seasons.
November 20, 2025 at 10:56 PM
In the next CBA I'd like to see more of the option bonus and void year stuff formalized a bit more, so that there's more clarity on exactly what tools teams have to allocate cap dollars across seasons.
Broncos have been on the cutting edge of this too.
It's going to be an absolute pain to track this stuff and figure out which option bonuses get exercised or not, but it really does maximize flexibility with balancing cap dollars and we should see more of this.
It's going to be an absolute pain to track this stuff and figure out which option bonuses get exercised or not, but it really does maximize flexibility with balancing cap dollars and we should see more of this.
November 20, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Broncos have been on the cutting edge of this too.
It's going to be an absolute pain to track this stuff and figure out which option bonuses get exercised or not, but it really does maximize flexibility with balancing cap dollars and we should see more of this.
It's going to be an absolute pain to track this stuff and figure out which option bonuses get exercised or not, but it really does maximize flexibility with balancing cap dollars and we should see more of this.
If Solomon Thomas does not qualify as a compensatory free agent, the Cowboys' lost/gained different moves from 2 to 3.
This would open up a 6th round 2026 compensatory pick due to Brandin Cooks going back to (but not remaining in) New Orleans.
It'd also cost the Jets a 7th.
This would open up a 6th round 2026 compensatory pick due to Brandin Cooks going back to (but not remaining in) New Orleans.
It'd also cost the Jets a 7th.
November 20, 2025 at 10:23 PM
If Solomon Thomas does not qualify as a compensatory free agent, the Cowboys' lost/gained different moves from 2 to 3.
This would open up a 6th round 2026 compensatory pick due to Brandin Cooks going back to (but not remaining in) New Orleans.
It'd also cost the Jets a 7th.
This would open up a 6th round 2026 compensatory pick due to Brandin Cooks going back to (but not remaining in) New Orleans.
It'd also cost the Jets a 7th.