Neville Hill
@nevillehill.bsky.social
Economics, Climate and Macro; Books; Records; and Bikes
Genius move by Starmer. Correctly identifying that what the economy and electorate needs is more unimaginative technocratic neoliberalism.
Interesting appointment. Would be the most high-profile No 10 economic adviser in a very long time.
August 29, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Genius move by Starmer. Correctly identifying that what the economy and electorate needs is more unimaginative technocratic neoliberalism.
Reposted by Neville Hill
I’ve seen it again today, so here goes: this chart, and the research note it comes from, is extremely silly and misleading.
It purports to show a drop in electricity availability in Britain coinciding with the productivity slowdown. It shows nothing of the sort…
It purports to show a drop in electricity availability in Britain coinciding with the productivity slowdown. It shows nothing of the sort…
June 2, 2025 at 8:17 PM
I’ve seen it again today, so here goes: this chart, and the research note it comes from, is extremely silly and misleading.
It purports to show a drop in electricity availability in Britain coinciding with the productivity slowdown. It shows nothing of the sort…
It purports to show a drop in electricity availability in Britain coinciding with the productivity slowdown. It shows nothing of the sort…
Welcome to Credit Suisse everyone!
April 9, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Welcome to Credit Suisse everyone!
Reposted by Neville Hill
(costs don't always disappear just because you move them off the budget; as I regularly say, failing to repair a bridge is a bigger unfunded commitment and burden on future generations than borrowing money to repair it)
March 5, 2025 at 1:07 PM
(costs don't always disappear just because you move them off the budget; as I regularly say, failing to repair a bridge is a bigger unfunded commitment and burden on future generations than borrowing money to repair it)
Show me the Monnet
March 4, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Show me the Monnet
A literal and metaphorical bazooka
MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
March 4, 2025 at 6:35 PM
A literal and metaphorical bazooka
Reposted by Neville Hill
To celebrate the recent FT 'best books of 2024' news and because tariffs & trade wars are now back in a big way, I'm giving away a free copy of my new book Pax Economica press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
One winner will be chosen at random. To be considered, just 'repost' and 'like' this post!
One winner will be chosen at random. To be considered, just 'repost' and 'like' this post!
December 2, 2024 at 2:24 PM
To celebrate the recent FT 'best books of 2024' news and because tariffs & trade wars are now back in a big way, I'm giving away a free copy of my new book Pax Economica press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
One winner will be chosen at random. To be considered, just 'repost' and 'like' this post!
One winner will be chosen at random. To be considered, just 'repost' and 'like' this post!
Good to see that the Greek gods are still operational.
November 22, 2024 at 8:06 PM
Good to see that the Greek gods are still operational.
Reposted by Neville Hill
Many thanks to the @financialtimes.com for giving Hybrid Economics its first press coverage of @nevillehill.bsky.social comments on today’s U.K. inflation numbers. on.ft.com/3U49b53
January 17, 2024 at 7:26 PM
Many thanks to the @financialtimes.com for giving Hybrid Economics its first press coverage of @nevillehill.bsky.social comments on today’s U.K. inflation numbers. on.ft.com/3U49b53
I'm a r*-sceptic. But if there is a 'neutral rate' then I think Soumaya's description of the Richmond Fed's estimate, having "statistical error bands the size of a bus... the lower bound is 1.4 per cent and upper bound is 3.6 per cent" might actually be the correct way to capture it. Great article.
My column this week for the @financialtimes.com is about the different ways we have of measuring r*.
It's a bit mean of me to say that none of them are good - it's a really *really* hard thing to measure...
www.ft.com/content/3c20...
It's a bit mean of me to say that none of them are good - it's a really *really* hard thing to measure...
www.ft.com/content/3c20...
Why people can’t agree on where interest rates are going
Methods of estimating so-called R-star are in the spotlight — unfortunately, none are good
www.ft.com
November 3, 2023 at 1:59 PM
I'm a r*-sceptic. But if there is a 'neutral rate' then I think Soumaya's description of the Richmond Fed's estimate, having "statistical error bands the size of a bus... the lower bound is 1.4 per cent and upper bound is 3.6 per cent" might actually be the correct way to capture it. Great article.
Stephen is fantastic and well worth a follow on environmental economics, energy and causal inference matters.
You spend ages thinking about how to overcome the political/permitting barriers to building new transmission lines and then some clever engineers come along and say "Why not just double existing capacity by using new upgraded wires...?" Cool new EI working paper haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti...
November 3, 2023 at 11:30 AM
Stephen is fantastic and well worth a follow on environmental economics, energy and causal inference matters.
If Keynes wrote the General Theory today his publishers would force him to call the book "Maynardonomics"
October 17, 2023 at 12:40 PM