Much more analysis on the Fourth Plenum and US-China relations in the piece, co-authored with Lobsang Tsering

asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

10/10

So what kind of deal does Xi want with Trump?

Shortly after their summit, I went to a conference in NYC where half the room thought there'd be a "comprehensive" US-China trade deal by 2028

I was shocked

Xi wants a truce to buy time and build leverage, not a grand bargain

9/

Key to Xi’s domestic agenda and US dealmaking is his political power

The plenum reaffirmed his control despite record purges and further centralization

E.g., share of cadre comments on plenum drafts then incorporated into final docs fell from 35.5% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2025

8/

Xi himself is concerned about overproduction and ruinous price wars

But the plenum offered few convincing answers (yet) for how to curb such "involution"

For Xi, the US is a cautionary tale of deindustrialization, so China's economy "must not shift from real to virtual"

7/

China will remain a high-capacity economy that puts producers over consumers

Tensions with other industrial economies—especially in Europe and North America—will intensify

China wants to dominate supply chains for future tech like it does now for EVs, batteries & solar

6/

Xi's top goals for the five-year plan for 2026-2030 are "building a modernized industrial system" and "self-strengthening in science and tech"

He wants to ensure China can never again be coerced or contained by the US

With "extraordinary measures" to develop key core tech

5/

Beijing sees a connect between its recent Fourth Plenum on the five-year plan and Trump-Xi

"Major-power relations shape the international situation ... which profoundly influences domestic development"

The summit was a bid to secure strategic breathing room for Xi's agenda

4/

But Xi still sees Trump as an agent of chaos and is preparing for a more turbulent world

April 2: 34% tariff on China
April 8: 84%
April 9: 125%

April 10: Beijing holds a "special meeting" to adjust its five-year planning in light of "changes in the external situation"...

3/

Probably not by the numbers—China's nominal GDP was only 64% of the US last year

But perhaps yes in substance—industrial might, tech self-reliance, and export controls helped Xi stare down US pressure this year

Chinese scholars are praising Mao's "strategic foresight"

2/

Cheers Jeremy!

Read the full report here:

asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

14/14

China’s Public Health Challenges Will Present Risks and Opportunities

"The confluence of heightened chronic disease incidence, demographic headwinds, and domestic policy challenges has brought [China’s health system] to the edge of functionality"

Patrick Beyrer & Bob T. Li

13/14

The Year of Complex Challenges Will Intensify the Need for Robust Climate Action

"[China's] carbon emissions will finally plateau, but as the country struggles with an economic slowdown, more forceful policies to decrease emissions may be difficult"

Li Shuo

12/14

Risk of Volatility Will Loom Large Across the Taiwan Strait

"The risk of volatility in the Taiwan Strait will remain high over the next four years, as Beijing currently has no intention of resuming contact with Taiwan under the Lai administration"

Rorry Daniels

11/14

U.S.-China Diplomatic Divide Will Widen

"Each side portrays the other as intent on undermining their fundamental national security interests, and this rhetoric reinforces perceptions that the other side seeks to 'dominate' in a contest"

Lyle Morris

10/14

Beijing Will Struggle to Manage Relations with the New U.S. Administration

"Whether the U.S.-China relationship remains intact will depend on whether China perceives U.S. actions as setting the stage for a deal or ... unilateral decoupling"

Rick Waters

9/14