Neil Shearing
@neilshearing.bsky.social
Group Chief Economist, Capital Economics; Associate Fellow, Chatham House
Wrote a piece for @theworldtoday.org and @chathamhouse.org on US-China fracturing and what we get wrong about the future of globalisation...
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Check out stories about the world order after Trump, new climate thinking ahead of #COP30, the changing views of Israeli society on the war in Gaza and lots more. 🌎
Read here 👉 www.chathamhouse.org/publications...
Check out stories about the world order after Trump, new climate thinking ahead of #COP30, the changing views of Israeli society on the war in Gaza and lots more. 🌎
Read here 👉 www.chathamhouse.org/publications...
September 15, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Wrote a piece for @theworldtoday.org and @chathamhouse.org on US-China fracturing and what we get wrong about the future of globalisation...
Reposted by Neil Shearing
There's nothing good about high and rising US Treasury yields. The only silver lining is that it shuts down all the #MMT nonsense of recent years, which claimed that "deficits don't matter." Deficits do matter and fiscal space is very much finite. Time for #MMT to finally go the way of the dodo...
May 22, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Wrote this last month in the wake of the April 2nd tariff chaos. Still feels like a reasonable base case.
May 8, 2025 at 6:07 AM
Wrote this last month in the wake of the April 2nd tariff chaos. Still feels like a reasonable base case.
The collapse in port berth bookings in US looks alarming but here's some important context - YTD port throughput at LA Long Beach is already up ~10% on last year as firms have sought to front-run tariffs. Inventory-to-sales ratios also rising.
April 30, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The collapse in port berth bookings in US looks alarming but here's some important context - YTD port throughput at LA Long Beach is already up ~10% on last year as firms have sought to front-run tariffs. Inventory-to-sales ratios also rising.
Today feels like a good day to announce the publication of my book, “The Fractured Age”.
April 8, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Today feels like a good day to announce the publication of my book, “The Fractured Age”.
Striking that China has announced a target for REAL GDP growth this year of 5% but the budget docs from today's Work Plan suggest that the government is expecting NOMINAL GDP growth of just ~4.9%. So much for a reflationary recovery.
March 5, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Striking that China has announced a target for REAL GDP growth this year of 5% but the budget docs from today's Work Plan suggest that the government is expecting NOMINAL GDP growth of just ~4.9%. So much for a reflationary recovery.
Reposted by Neil Shearing
“Why don’t you say thank you”
A Russian drone just struck a crowded hospital in Kharkiv. Fire is raging at the site. Rescuers are rushing to the scene.
February 28, 2025 at 10:13 PM
“Why don’t you say thank you”
Reposted by Neil Shearing
Brexit has never looked quite so daft
February 28, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Brexit has never looked quite so daft
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused.
(Appreciate the macro/Elvis Costello Venn Diagram overlap is niche)
(Appreciate the macro/Elvis Costello Venn Diagram overlap is niche)
You economist idiots with your GDP that includes government spending!
February 28, 2025 at 5:31 PM
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused.
(Appreciate the macro/Elvis Costello Venn Diagram overlap is niche)
(Appreciate the macro/Elvis Costello Venn Diagram overlap is niche)
My latest - pushing back on the idea that we're witnessing a fundamental geoeconomic realignment. Weird times but there's still more that unites than divides the US and Europe. The big schism remains between the US and China.
www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/geoecon...
www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/geoecon...
A geoeconomic realignment – or is it? | Capital Economics
Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too.
www.capitaleconomics.com
February 28, 2025 at 4:54 PM
My latest - pushing back on the idea that we're witnessing a fundamental geoeconomic realignment. Weird times but there's still more that unites than divides the US and Europe. The big schism remains between the US and China.
www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/geoecon...
www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/geoecon...
That's my headstone sorted
January 21, 2025 at 2:56 PM
That's my headstone sorted
Updated our estimates of the UK government's headroom against its fiscal rules after this week's gilt sell-off. It's... tight...
January 10, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Updated our estimates of the UK government's headroom against its fiscal rules after this week's gilt sell-off. It's... tight...
Rise in vacancies has rattled the bond market today - but drop in the quits rate telling a different story...
January 7, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Rise in vacancies has rattled the bond market today - but drop in the quits rate telling a different story...
Reposted by Neil Shearing
Starmer cannot survive this
November 24, 2024 at 7:06 PM
Starmer cannot survive this
Looked at how other countries responded to US tariffs in the first Trump administration. Key points:
November 21, 2024 at 5:33 PM
Looked at how other countries responded to US tariffs in the first Trump administration. Key points:
Of all the dumb things that I've seen said about tariffs over the past couple of weeks, the dumbest is that they help to close trade deficits.
November 20, 2024 at 2:21 PM
Of all the dumb things that I've seen said about tariffs over the past couple of weeks, the dumbest is that they help to close trade deficits.
Back from meetings with clients in the US. Still think everyone is too optimistic on the likelihood of additional significant tax cuts under Trump (beyond the extension of the 2018 cuts).
November 19, 2024 at 8:08 PM
Back from meetings with clients in the US. Still think everyone is too optimistic on the likelihood of additional significant tax cuts under Trump (beyond the extension of the 2018 cuts).
Thoughts on where we stand after the latest data. Become more concerned about labour markets, but soft landing still seems most likely outcome. With that said, “data dependence” is no way to anchor policy.
www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/data-sp...
www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/data-sp...
As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow? | Capital Economics
So much for staying ‘data dependent’.
www.capitaleconomics.com
September 11, 2024 at 5:09 PM
Thoughts on where we stand after the latest data. Become more concerned about labour markets, but soft landing still seems most likely outcome. With that said, “data dependence” is no way to anchor policy.
www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/data-sp...
www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/data-sp...