Neil Shearing
@neilshearing.bsky.social
Group Chief Economist, Capital Economics; Associate Fellow, Chatham House
Wrote this last month in the wake of the April 2nd tariff chaos. Still feels like a reasonable base case.
May 8, 2025 at 6:07 AM
Wrote this last month in the wake of the April 2nd tariff chaos. Still feels like a reasonable base case.
The collapse in port berth bookings in US looks alarming but here's some important context - YTD port throughput at LA Long Beach is already up ~10% on last year as firms have sought to front-run tariffs. Inventory-to-sales ratios also rising.
April 30, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The collapse in port berth bookings in US looks alarming but here's some important context - YTD port throughput at LA Long Beach is already up ~10% on last year as firms have sought to front-run tariffs. Inventory-to-sales ratios also rising.
Today feels like a good day to announce the publication of my book, “The Fractured Age”.
April 8, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Today feels like a good day to announce the publication of my book, “The Fractured Age”.
This is one is at least accurate
January 21, 2025 at 3:00 PM
This is one is at least accurate
That's my headstone sorted
January 21, 2025 at 2:56 PM
That's my headstone sorted
Updated our estimates of the UK government's headroom against its fiscal rules after this week's gilt sell-off. It's... tight...
January 10, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Updated our estimates of the UK government's headroom against its fiscal rules after this week's gilt sell-off. It's... tight...
Rise in vacancies has rattled the bond market today - but drop in the quits rate telling a different story...
January 7, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Rise in vacancies has rattled the bond market today - but drop in the quits rate telling a different story...
Looked at how other countries responded to US tariffs in the first Trump administration. Key points:
November 21, 2024 at 5:33 PM
Looked at how other countries responded to US tariffs in the first Trump administration. Key points: