Nate Silver Tweets
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Automatically reposting Nate Silver Tweets, DM if you are Nate and you want this account
@NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
@NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
Little ELWAY Thursday update here:
1) Fixing a couple of kinks in the model's playoff tiebreaker logic;
2) Benching Tua in MIA;
3) Updating weather forecasts, which can be a big deal this time of year.
https://t.co/bqbFjm2Y9c
1) Fixing a couple of kinks in the model's playoff tiebreaker logic;
2) Benching Tua in MIA;
3) Updating weather forecasts, which can be a big deal this time of year.
https://t.co/bqbFjm2Y9c
December 18, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Little ELWAY Thursday update here:
1) Fixing a couple of kinks in the model's playoff tiebreaker logic;
2) Benching Tua in MIA;
3) Updating weather forecasts, which can be a big deal this time of year.
https://t.co/bqbFjm2Y9c
1) Fixing a couple of kinks in the model's playoff tiebreaker logic;
2) Benching Tua in MIA;
3) Updating weather forecasts, which can be a big deal this time of year.
https://t.co/bqbFjm2Y9c
Repost by @NateSilver538 from @lxeagle17: RT by @NateSilver538: This piece hits at something important.
The first and the last group (abundance libs/populist left) believe something substantive about the party needs to change.
The "#Resistance Libs" are mostly of the opinion that it's messaging —...
The first and the last group (abundance libs/populist left) believe something substantive about the party needs to change.
The "#Resistance Libs" are mostly of the opinion that it's messaging —...
December 16, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Repost by @NateSilver538 from @lxeagle17: RT by @NateSilver538: This piece hits at something important.
The first and the last group (abundance libs/populist left) believe something substantive about the party needs to change.
The "#Resistance Libs" are mostly of the opinion that it's messaging —...
The first and the last group (abundance libs/populist left) believe something substantive about the party needs to change.
The "#Resistance Libs" are mostly of the opinion that it's messaging —...
Repost by @natesilver538 from @ettingermentum:
There is a huge distinction between Richardson types and the actual Bernie/Zohran left and you can learn practically everything you need to know about centrists commentators depending on if they acknowledge this or not.
https://t.co/CvrBPDC5if
There is a huge distinction between Richardson types and the actual Bernie/Zohran left and you can learn practically everything you need to know about centrists commentators depending on if they acknowledge this or not.
https://t.co/CvrBPDC5if
December 16, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Repost by @natesilver538 from @ettingermentum:
There is a huge distinction between Richardson types and the actual Bernie/Zohran left and you can learn practically everything you need to know about centrists commentators depending on if they acknowledge this or not.
https://t.co/CvrBPDC5if
There is a huge distinction between Richardson types and the actual Bernie/Zohran left and you can learn practically everything you need to know about centrists commentators depending on if they acknowledge this or not.
https://t.co/CvrBPDC5if
Trump's disapproval rating (55.9%) now exceeds the figure from a comparable point
in his first term (54.9%).
in his first term (54.9%).
December 14, 2025 at 3:36 AM
Trump's disapproval rating (55.9%) now exceeds the figure from a comparable point
in his first term (54.9%).
in his first term (54.9%).
This is good — even if it slanders the em-dash.
AI's tendency to statistically smooth out the rough edges produces extremely mid prose.
https://t.co/aSx6pRefI6
AI's tendency to statistically smooth out the rough edges produces extremely mid prose.
https://t.co/aSx6pRefI6
December 14, 2025 at 3:36 AM
This is good — even if it slanders the em-dash.
AI's tendency to statistically smooth out the rough edges produces extremely mid prose.
https://t.co/aSx6pRefI6
AI's tendency to statistically smooth out the rough edges produces extremely mid prose.
https://t.co/aSx6pRefI6
As Matt says here just nominate candidates with track records of electoral overperformance regardless of race or gender.
slowboring.com/p/gavin-newso…
https://www.slowboring.com/p/gavin-newsom-is-the-2028-front-runner
slowboring.com/p/gavin-newso…
https://www.slowboring.com/p/gavin-newsom-is-the-2028-front-runner
December 12, 2025 at 3:20 PM
As Matt says here just nominate candidates with track records of electoral overperformance regardless of race or gender.
slowboring.com/p/gavin-newso…
https://www.slowboring.com/p/gavin-newsom-is-the-2028-front-runner
slowboring.com/p/gavin-newso…
https://www.slowboring.com/p/gavin-newsom-is-the-2028-front-runner
Sorry not my controversy but Lizza should man up
and take some agency here
like why would you be at a hotel for 5 nights
if you were planning to enter and leave NYC within 24 hours?
and take some agency here
like why would you be at a hotel for 5 nights
if you were planning to enter and leave NYC within 24 hours?
December 11, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Sorry not my controversy but Lizza should man up
and take some agency here
like why would you be at a hotel for 5 nights
if you were planning to enter and leave NYC within 24 hours?
and take some agency here
like why would you be at a hotel for 5 nights
if you were planning to enter and leave NYC within 24 hours?
Full update here:
https://t.co/bqbFjm2Y9c
https://t.co/bqbFjm2Y9c
December 9, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Full update here:
https://t.co/bqbFjm2Y9c
https://t.co/bqbFjm2Y9c
We also ran the numbers for Philip Rivers
LOL, not an ideal situation in Indy.
LOL, not an ideal situation in Indy.
December 9, 2025 at 5:00 PM
We also ran the numbers for Philip Rivers
LOL, not an ideal situation in Indy.
LOL, not an ideal situation in Indy.
Repost by @NateSilver538 from @R_Thaler:
RT by @NateSilver538:
In this post Nate also supports a reader's suggestion that NFL teams don't run enough fake punts.
(They work well btw).
Agree!
In fact, for modern teams that punt less why not either pick an athletic punter or teach an athletic QB to...
RT by @NateSilver538:
In this post Nate also supports a reader's suggestion that NFL teams don't run enough fake punts.
(They work well btw).
Agree!
In fact, for modern teams that punt less why not either pick an athletic punter or teach an athletic QB to...
December 7, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Repost by @NateSilver538 from @R_Thaler:
RT by @NateSilver538:
In this post Nate also supports a reader's suggestion that NFL teams don't run enough fake punts.
(They work well btw).
Agree!
In fact, for modern teams that punt less why not either pick an athletic punter or teach an athletic QB to...
RT by @NateSilver538:
In this post Nate also supports a reader's suggestion that NFL teams don't run enough fake punts.
(They work well btw).
Agree!
In fact, for modern teams that punt less why not either pick an athletic punter or teach an athletic QB to...
From this month's SBSQ, where I have an update for you on redistricting —
plus an NFL question, since we are publishing this on a Sunday.
https://t.co/POoMT0hs6G
plus an NFL question, since we are publishing this on a Sunday.
https://t.co/POoMT0hs6G
December 7, 2025 at 5:50 PM
From this month's SBSQ, where I have an update for you on redistricting —
plus an NFL question, since we are publishing this on a Sunday.
https://t.co/POoMT0hs6G
plus an NFL question, since we are publishing this on a Sunday.
https://t.co/POoMT0hs6G
Once Abigail Spanberger gets sworn in next month,
Democrats will have a trifecta in states
representing more House seats than Republicans do.
Democrats will have a trifecta in states
representing more House seats than Republicans do.
December 7, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Once Abigail Spanberger gets sworn in next month,
Democrats will have a trifecta in states
representing more House seats than Republicans do.
Democrats will have a trifecta in states
representing more House seats than Republicans do.
"Affordability" isn’t a bad term, but it's a little fancy and reads as a bit focus-groupy.
Personally I'd just say "inflation" if I were a Political Messaging Professional.
Personally I'd just say "inflation" if I were a Political Messaging Professional.
December 6, 2025 at 7:03 PM
"Affordability" isn’t a bad term, but it's a little fancy and reads as a bit focus-groupy.
Personally I'd just say "inflation" if I were a Political Messaging Professional.
Personally I'd just say "inflation" if I were a Political Messaging Professional.
Repost by @NateSilver538 from @mkonnikova:
Did our producers call our most recent Risky Business episode with @NateSilver538 Frisky Business, because of a certain salacious media scandal?
Yes.
Yes they did.
And I'm here for it.
https://t.co/2hQAAgSFpx
Did our producers call our most recent Risky Business episode with @NateSilver538 Frisky Business, because of a certain salacious media scandal?
Yes.
Yes they did.
And I'm here for it.
https://t.co/2hQAAgSFpx
December 6, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Repost by @NateSilver538 from @mkonnikova:
Did our producers call our most recent Risky Business episode with @NateSilver538 Frisky Business, because of a certain salacious media scandal?
Yes.
Yes they did.
And I'm here for it.
https://t.co/2hQAAgSFpx
Did our producers call our most recent Risky Business episode with @NateSilver538 Frisky Business, because of a certain salacious media scandal?
Yes.
Yes they did.
And I'm here for it.
https://t.co/2hQAAgSFpx
• Predictions that Trump has entered some inexorable state of political decline have a really terrible track record
• However, 2nd terms often behave much differently than 1st terms, and Trump has had a really rough stretch.
• However, 2nd terms often behave much differently than 1st terms, and Trump has had a really rough stretch.
December 6, 2025 at 7:03 PM
• Predictions that Trump has entered some inexorable state of political decline have a really terrible track record
• However, 2nd terms often behave much differently than 1st terms, and Trump has had a really rough stretch.
• However, 2nd terms often behave much differently than 1st terms, and Trump has had a really rough stretch.
Kind of a weird year for quarterbacks with Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes all in a bit of a rough patch.
That leaves Stafford and Maye ahead in WAR, and not coincidentally, they're considered the ~only viable MVP candidates by Vegas.
https://t.co/jPzxIA51zG
That leaves Stafford and Maye ahead in WAR, and not coincidentally, they're considered the ~only viable MVP candidates by Vegas.
https://t.co/jPzxIA51zG
December 6, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Kind of a weird year for quarterbacks with Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes all in a bit of a rough patch.
That leaves Stafford and Maye ahead in WAR, and not coincidentally, they're considered the ~only viable MVP candidates by Vegas.
https://t.co/jPzxIA51zG
That leaves Stafford and Maye ahead in WAR, and not coincidentally, they're considered the ~only viable MVP candidates by Vegas.
https://t.co/jPzxIA51zG
People who didn't cover up for Biden are in a much better position to tell the media to vigorously cover Trump's age, too.
Which they absolutely should.
https://t.co/7gGOVoNJWR
Which they absolutely should.
https://t.co/7gGOVoNJWR
December 6, 2025 at 7:02 PM
People who didn't cover up for Biden are in a much better position to tell the media to vigorously cover Trump's age, too.
Which they absolutely should.
https://t.co/7gGOVoNJWR
Which they absolutely should.
https://t.co/7gGOVoNJWR
Trump's disapproval rating (55.9%)
now exceeds the figure from a comparable point in his first term (54.9%).
now exceeds the figure from a comparable point in his first term (54.9%).
December 6, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Trump's disapproval rating (55.9%)
now exceeds the figure from a comparable point in his first term (54.9%).
now exceeds the figure from a comparable point in his first term (54.9%).
But there was a cost last year to your constant fucking partisan bullshit.
It's not just Twitter games.
It put Democrats in a terrible position.
https://t.co/NzVCX8gDs4
It's not just Twitter games.
It put Democrats in a terrible position.
https://t.co/NzVCX8gDs4
December 6, 2025 at 7:02 PM
But there was a cost last year to your constant fucking partisan bullshit.
It's not just Twitter games.
It put Democrats in a terrible position.
https://t.co/NzVCX8gDs4
It's not just Twitter games.
It put Democrats in a terrible position.
https://t.co/NzVCX8gDs4
Grok didn't do this for me at all.
Even when I tried to bait it into saying Trump won, it insisted that Biden did and provided lots of links and evidence.
https://t.co/2X8EVZwVgE
Even when I tried to bait it into saying Trump won, it insisted that Biden did and provided lots of links and evidence.
https://t.co/2X8EVZwVgE
December 6, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Grok didn't do this for me at all.
Even when I tried to bait it into saying Trump won, it insisted that Biden did and provided lots of links and evidence.
https://t.co/2X8EVZwVgE
Even when I tried to bait it into saying Trump won, it insisted that Biden did and provided lots of links and evidence.
https://t.co/2X8EVZwVgE
Whole thing here, ungated. 🔥
https://t.co/PnHgNG81cL
https://t.co/PnHgNG81cL
December 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Whole thing here, ungated. 🔥
https://t.co/PnHgNG81cL
https://t.co/PnHgNG81cL
Isn't West Elm kinda mid?
https://t.co/erYfRVuBDJ
https://t.co/erYfRVuBDJ
December 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Isn't West Elm kinda mid?
https://t.co/erYfRVuBDJ
https://t.co/erYfRVuBDJ
Repost by @natesilver538 from @PokerStarsUSA:
Many congratulations to @mkonnikova winner of the $5k #NAPT High Roller second chance tournament for $66,350 today!
Well played, 👏👏
Many congratulations to @mkonnikova winner of the $5k #NAPT High Roller second chance tournament for $66,350 today!
Well played, 👏👏
December 6, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Repost by @natesilver538 from @PokerStarsUSA:
Many congratulations to @mkonnikova winner of the $5k #NAPT High Roller second chance tournament for $66,350 today!
Well played, 👏👏
Many congratulations to @mkonnikova winner of the $5k #NAPT High Roller second chance tournament for $66,350 today!
Well played, 👏👏