Nate Silver Tweets
@natesilver538x.bsky.social
Automatically reposting Nate Silver Tweets, DM if you are Nate and you want this account
@NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
@NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
Here's the result of 30,000 simulations of the final score, LOL. (There's an EXCEL version of this in the article that's actually legible.)
February 4, 2026 at 10:23 PM
Here's the result of 30,000 simulations of the final score, LOL. (There's an EXCEL version of this in the article that's actually legible.)
Busy day, but our Super Bowl preview is out. 🏈 The Seahawks and the Pats started at +6000 and +8000 to win the Super Bowl, respectively. Despite being among the most unlikely champs, they're probably closer to underrated than overrated. But there's a lot to consider:
February 4, 2026 at 10:23 PM
Busy day, but our Super Bowl preview is out. 🏈 The Seahawks and the Pats started at +6000 and +8000 to win the Super Bowl, respectively. Despite being among the most unlikely champs, they're probably closer to underrated than overrated. But there's a lot to consider:
(This chart is from our newsletter last week. Was hoping things wouldn't be quite *this* bad, though.)
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline
The sad and self-inflicted decline of the Washington Post, in one chart
Under Jeff Bezos, the paper retreated from the adversarial, anti-Trump posture that helped fuel its growth. And now its influence has fallen sharply.
www.natesilver.net
February 4, 2026 at 9:23 PM
(This chart is from our newsletter last week. Was hoping things wouldn't be quite *this* bad, though.)
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline
The cuts at the Post are devastating, and my heart goes out to everyone affected. To state the obvious, there's no reason to be sympathetic to Bezos or any of the other leaders there. The paper's influence really cratered following the editorial shifts in 2024/25.
February 4, 2026 at 9:23 PM
The cuts at the Post are devastating, and my heart goes out to everyone affected. To state the obvious, there's no reason to be sympathetic to Bezos or any of the other leaders there. The paper's influence really cratered following the editorial shifts in 2024/25.
The actual NBA trades are now weirder than the fake AI slop trades in my For You timeline.
nitter.net
February 4, 2026 at 7:23 PM
The actual NBA trades are now weirder than the fake AI slop trades in my For You timeline.
Only trade with truly A++ Luka-like shock value (not necessarily lopsidedness) would be Giannis to the Thunder.
https://nitter.net/LegionHoops/status/2018842504184156672
https://nitter.net/LegionHoops/status/2018842504184156672
nitter.net
February 4, 2026 at 2:18 AM
Only trade with truly A++ Luka-like shock value (not necessarily lopsidedness) would be Giannis to the Thunder.
https://nitter.net/LegionHoops/status/2018842504184156672
https://nitter.net/LegionHoops/status/2018842504184156672
As you'll see, I do think the impact of moderation has diminished, along with all other "candidate quality" variables. But a lot of the work from e.g. Bonica/Grumbach is classic Replication Crisis Era junk science & there's been next to no effort to refute any of these points.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 10:38 PM
As you'll see, I do think the impact of moderation has diminished, along with all other "candidate quality" variables. But a lot of the work from e.g. Bonica/Grumbach is classic Replication Crisis Era junk science & there's been next to no effort to refute any of these points.
Since the "moderation wars" are heating up again I guess I'll repost this very deep dive I took on it from this summer.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and
https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and
Real talk on models, moderation, and the misuse of academic authority
It’s time to stop being polite. Here are 36 takes on how moderation does or doesn't help candidates win — and why I trust outsiders to build election models more than academics.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 10:38 PM
Since the "moderation wars" are heating up again I guess I'll repost this very deep dive I took on it from this summer.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and
https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and
Failing that, maybe make some testable predictions? If your thesis is right, where is the conventional wisdom (e.g. as embodied by models or prediction markets) wrong?
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 10:38 PM
Failing that, maybe make some testable predictions? If your thesis is right, where is the conventional wisdom (e.g. as embodied by models or prediction markets) wrong?
Very podcast-y trade, your interest in this deal is an exponential function of how many nerdy NBA podcasts you listen to (I listen to all of them).
https://nitter.net/ShamsCharania/status/2018756786052845599
https://nitter.net/ShamsCharania/status/2018756786052845599
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 6:58 PM
Very podcast-y trade, your interest in this deal is an exponential function of how many nerdy NBA podcasts you listen to (I listen to all of them).
https://nitter.net/ShamsCharania/status/2018756786052845599
https://nitter.net/ShamsCharania/status/2018756786052845599
Busy week at the newsletter ahead, but I figured we’d get the second half of SBSQ published before we invade Greenland or something. Here's why Drake Maye, not Matt Stafford, should be MVP.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp
SBSQ #28b: Maye vs. Stafford and Yelp vs. Google
Plus, why the College Football Playoff selection process is intrinsically broken.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Busy week at the newsletter ahead, but I figured we’d get the second half of SBSQ published before we invade Greenland or something. Here's why Drake Maye, not Matt Stafford, should be MVP.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp
Democratic primary draft with @ClareMalone and @galendruke! 1. (Galen) Gavin 2. (Nate) AOC 3. (Clare) Mayor Pete FYI, I'd probably also have taken Newsom #1 if I'd had the top pick. These are my predictions of who Ds will like, not who I personally think is most electable.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Democratic primary draft with @ClareMalone and @galendruke! 1. (Galen) Gavin 2. (Nate) AOC 3. (Clare) Mayor Pete FYI, I'd probably also have taken Newsom #1 if I'd had the top pick. These are my predictions of who Ds will like, not who I personally think is most electable.
This week's ELWAY update is ready + some quick commentary on the impact of the Nix injury and other things. Worth noting that of the 4 remaining playoff teams, really only Seattle played especially well last week.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds
ELWAY NFL team projections
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
This week's ELWAY update is ready + some quick commentary on the impact of the Nix injury and other things. Worth noting that of the 4 remaining playoff teams, really only Seattle played especially well last week.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds
QBERT update for the week. That was a pretty darned mediocre week of quarterbacking. And now the guy who was probably most consistent last week from start to finish is out for the year.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings
https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings
QBERT NFL Quarterback Ratings
Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
QBERT update for the week. That was a pretty darned mediocre week of quarterbacking. And now the guy who was probably most consistent last week from start to finish is out for the year.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings
https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings
I'll be doing a S*bstack Live with @mattyglesias at 1PM today where we'll talk about what Trump's 2nd term looks like one year in. Should be a fun conversation, come join us on your lunch break!
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
I'll be doing a S*bstack Live with @mattyglesias at 1PM today where we'll talk about what Trump's 2nd term looks like one year in. Should be a fun conversation, come join us on your lunch break!
I certainly have lots of critiques of the libs. But with noteworthy consistency, “MAGA intellectuals” are either not MAGA or not intellectual. Wouldn't be the worst thing to have a conservative movement that isn’t so bootlicker-y.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
I certainly have lots of critiques of the libs. But with noteworthy consistency, “MAGA intellectuals” are either not MAGA or not intellectual. Wouldn't be the worst thing to have a conservative movement that isn’t so bootlicker-y.
Knicks are a good, not great, team, sometimes a slump is just short-term variance in luck or "form", could be talked into certain moves but there are dangers in overreacting, especially when you're already fairly pot-committed and don't have many chips left behind anyway.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
Knicks are a good, not great, team, sometimes a slump is just short-term variance in luck or "form", could be talked into certain moves but there are dangers in overreacting, especially when you're already fairly pot-committed and don't have many chips left behind anyway.
It's the difference between "WE ARE IN AN ACUTE CRISIS RIGHT NOW! AND ON THE BRINK OF AN AUTHORITARIAN TAKEOVER!!!" and "yeah, this shit's bad, but Trump's unpopular, he chickens out a lot, and at least the economy is OK, hopefully Democrats win in 2026/28".
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
It's the difference between "WE ARE IN AN ACUTE CRISIS RIGHT NOW! AND ON THE BRINK OF AN AUTHORITARIAN TAKEOVER!!!" and "yeah, this shit's bad, but Trump's unpopular, he chickens out a lot, and at least the economy is OK, hopefully Democrats win in 2026/28".
Although the NYT takes a broader overall outlook, from 2016 through 2024, the Post ran about evenly with the NYT in mindshare for American politics coverage, as measured by incoming links to @memeorandum. Now it suddenly has only about 1/3 as much influence.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
Although the NYT takes a broader overall outlook, from 2016 through 2024, the Post ran about evenly with the NYT in mindshare for American politics coverage, as measured by incoming links to @memeorandum. Now it suddenly has only about 1/3 as much influence.
Repost by @natesilver538 from @emckowndawson:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
Repost by @natesilver538 from @emckowndawson:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
Approval on immigration had been a comparative bright spot for Trump. But there has been a persistent decline over the past few months and today almost certainly makes that worse. He's losing the normies not just the libs.
February 3, 2026 at 4:32 AM
Approval on immigration had been a comparative bright spot for Trump. But there has been a persistent decline over the past few months and today almost certainly makes that worse. He's losing the normies not just the libs.
The rest of the picks plus lots of commentary here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2
https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2
2028 Democratic primary draft #2
Plus, more commentary on Minneapolis from my live show with Galen Druke and Clare Malone.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:32 AM
The rest of the picks plus lots of commentary here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2
https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2
Our generic ballot tracker just launched! Currently D +5.3. That margin has been slowly but steadily growing over time. Would very likely be enough for them to take the House. Adding another 2-3 points would considerably improve their chances in the Senate.
February 3, 2026 at 4:31 AM
Our generic ballot tracker just launched! Currently D +5.3. That margin has been slowly but steadily growing over time. Would very likely be enough for them to take the House. Adding another 2-3 points would considerably improve their chances in the Senate.
Just a quick newsletter today on the sad state of the Washington Post. This chart tells the story.
February 3, 2026 at 4:31 AM
Just a quick newsletter today on the sad state of the Washington Post. This chart tells the story.