Moritz Kraemer
@mugkraemer.bsky.social
Scientist & Prof @UOxford
https://kraemerlab.com/
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/pandemic-genomics
https://www.psi.ox.ac.uk/
https://kraemerlab.com/
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/pandemic-genomics
https://www.psi.ox.ac.uk/
Northward expansion of Aedes albopictus-associated arbovirus transmission risk in Europe
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Northward expansion of Aedes albopictus-associated arbovirus transmission risk in Europe
Since 2007, outbreaks of chikungunya and dengue have become increasingly frequent
and large scale in Europe. The frequency and size of these episodes suggest a concerning
trend. In 2025 alone, there h...
www.thelancet.com
November 10, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Northward expansion of Aedes albopictus-associated arbovirus transmission risk in Europe
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others
November 5, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others
Reposted by Moritz Kraemer
Rt measures how quickly a pathogen spreads and was central to understanding and controlling COVID-19. In our latest work, we extend this concept to vector-borne diseases, developing a new, renewal equation–based framework that links infection dynamics in humans and vectors.
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
October 14, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Rt measures how quickly a pathogen spreads and was central to understanding and controlling COVID-19. In our latest work, we extend this concept to vector-borne diseases, developing a new, renewal equation–based framework that links infection dynamics in humans and vectors.
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
From January to 8 October 2025, France (n = 700) and Italy (n = 353) have reported CHIKV cases widely across their territories. The increase in clusters coincides with global outbreaks and temperature anomalies in Europe.
Active clusters shown here:
gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...
Active clusters shown here:
gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...
October 11, 2025 at 10:25 AM
From January to 8 October 2025, France (n = 700) and Italy (n = 353) have reported CHIKV cases widely across their territories. The increase in clusters coincides with global outbreaks and temperature anomalies in Europe.
Active clusters shown here:
gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...
Active clusters shown here:
gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...
The role of climate variability in shaping the 2023/24 outbreak of Dengue in Brazil (📉 in north regions; 📈 in southern populous regions).
Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
October 8, 2025 at 10:45 AM
The role of climate variability in shaping the 2023/24 outbreak of Dengue in Brazil (📉 in north regions; 📈 in southern populous regions).
Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Chikungunya outbreak in northern Italy (Modena, Carpi, San Prospero, Concordia sulla Secchia, and Soliera) with over 104 detected and confirmed autochthonous transmissions: www.ausl.mo.it/chikungunya-...
Chikungunya, continuano i prelievi ad accesso libero a Carpi, oltre 140 le persone che si sono presentate per effettuare il test - AUSL Modena
Sui casi complessivi, l’80% non è più considerato a rischio trasmissione del virus. Sui social dell’Ausl di Modena un video dedicato all’uso corretto dei repellenti, come sceglierli e applicarli anche...
www.ausl.mo.it
September 15, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Chikungunya outbreak in northern Italy (Modena, Carpi, San Prospero, Concordia sulla Secchia, and Soliera) with over 104 detected and confirmed autochthonous transmissions: www.ausl.mo.it/chikungunya-...
382 locally acquired cases of chikungunya in France in 2025 alone. Total of just under 1000 imported cases from outbreaks abroad.
www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-...
www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-...
Chikungunya, dengue, Zika et West Nile en France hexagonale. Bulletin de la surveillance renforcée du 10 septembre 2025.
Chikungunya, dengue, Zika et West Nile en France hexagonale. Bulletin de la surveillance renforcée du 10 septembre 2025.
www.santepubliquefrance.fr
September 11, 2025 at 9:19 AM
382 locally acquired cases of chikungunya in France in 2025 alone. Total of just under 1000 imported cases from outbreaks abroad.
www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-...
www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-...
Reposted by Moritz Kraemer
Sequence data from the new Ebola outbreak in DRC suggests it is indeed a new spillover.
And just incredible to see the virus sequenced and the data publicly shared less than 24 hours after confirmation of the outbreak.
#IDsky 🧪
virological.org/t/the-16th-e...
And just incredible to see the virus sequenced and the data publicly shared less than 24 hours after confirmation of the outbreak.
#IDsky 🧪
virological.org/t/the-16th-e...
The 16th Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Bulape Health Zone, Kasai, Democratic Republic of the Congo: A new spillover event from an unknown reservoir host
Background The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is currently facing concurrent outbreaks including mpox, cholera and malaria (1-4). The Ministry of Public Health, DRC has declared the 16th Ebola...
virological.org
September 5, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Sequence data from the new Ebola outbreak in DRC suggests it is indeed a new spillover.
And just incredible to see the virus sequenced and the data publicly shared less than 24 hours after confirmation of the outbreak.
#IDsky 🧪
virological.org/t/the-16th-e...
And just incredible to see the virus sequenced and the data publicly shared less than 24 hours after confirmation of the outbreak.
#IDsky 🧪
virological.org/t/the-16th-e...
Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity
Waning immunity to Japanese encephalitis virus was associated with increased severity of dengue disease in a cohort of patients from Nepal.
www.science.org
September 5, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Likely a new spillover causing the Ebola outbreak in the DRC: virological.org/t/the-16th-e...
The 16th Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Bulape Health Zone, Kasai, Democratic Republic of the Congo: A new spillover event from an unknown reservoir host
Background The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is currently facing concurrent outbreaks including mpox, cholera and malaria (1-4). The Ministry of Public Health, DRC has declared the 16th Ebola...
virological.org
September 5, 2025 at 4:56 AM
Likely a new spillover causing the Ebola outbreak in the DRC: virological.org/t/the-16th-e...
Climate-sensitive disease data integration has been challenging due to variations in spatial & temporal resolution of inputs as well as multi-modality (satellite imagery, tabular, genomic..). We built a tool to makes it easier to perform data integration: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...
wellcomeopenresearch.org
September 2, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Climate-sensitive disease data integration has been challenging due to variations in spatial & temporal resolution of inputs as well as multi-modality (satellite imagery, tabular, genomic..). We built a tool to makes it easier to perform data integration: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...
A systematic nomenclature for mpox viruses causing outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com
July 30, 2025 at 12:26 PM
A systematic nomenclature for mpox viruses causing outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Probable autochthonous case of chikungunya reported in northern Italy: www.ausl.pc.it/it/comunicaz...
Confermato un caso probabilmente autoctono di chikungunya
A Castel San Giovanni, in località Pievetta. Le misure adottate per prevenire la diffusione
www.ausl.pc.it
July 14, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Probable autochthonous case of chikungunya reported in northern Italy: www.ausl.pc.it/it/comunicaz...
Now peer-reviewed and approved.
Write-up of our open-source software tool, Grapevne, enabling rapid construction of multi-data type workflows for enhanced pandemic preparedness.
It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern.
wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...
It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern.
wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...
July 11, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Now peer-reviewed and approved.
BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference - Nature Methods
BEAST X advances Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic analysis by incorporating a broad range of complex models and leveraging advanced algorithms and techniques to boost statistica...
www.nature.com
July 7, 2025 at 6:25 PM
BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
So proud of Dr. Joseph Tsui, whom I had the great pleasure of co-advising with Oliver Pybus, for finishing his DPhil yesterday.
Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution).
Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI
Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution).
Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI
June 20, 2025 at 9:42 AM
So proud of Dr. Joseph Tsui, whom I had the great pleasure of co-advising with Oliver Pybus, for finishing his DPhil yesterday.
Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution).
Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI
Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution).
Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI
Phylogenetic insights into the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne viruses
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Great work by Verity Hill and team
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Great work by Verity Hill and team
Phylogenetic insights into the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne viruses - Nature Reviews Genetics
Arthropod-borne viruses have a substantial impact on global health, with climate change and urbanization exacerbating their emergence. Integrating genomic surveillance and phylogenetic models with eco...
www.nature.com
June 10, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Phylogenetic insights into the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne viruses
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Great work by Verity Hill and team
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Great work by Verity Hill and team
Write-up of our open-source software tool, Grapevne, enabling rapid construction of multi-data type workflows for enhanced pandemic preparedness.
It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern.
wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...
It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern.
wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...
May 28, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Write-up of our open-source software tool, Grapevne, enabling rapid construction of multi-data type workflows for enhanced pandemic preparedness.
It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern.
wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...
It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern.
wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...
Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US - Nature Communications
Leveraging genomic and epidemiological surveillance data, the authors show that flu epidemics in the US arise from independent outbreaks in different states that spread from state to state through com...
www.nature.com
May 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Fantastic overview of Chikungunya virus and other emerging arthritogenic alphaviruses
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Chikungunya virus and other emerging arthritogenic alphaviruses - Nature Reviews Microbiology
In this Review, Weaver and colleagues discuss the transmission cycles of arthritogenic alphaviruses, their vectors, epidemiology, transmission dynamics, evolution, pathophysiology and immune responses...
www.nature.com
May 17, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Fantastic overview of Chikungunya virus and other emerging arthritogenic alphaviruses
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Moritz Kraemer
Really looking forward to this event @oxmartinschool.bsky.social on what turns spillovers into epidemics/pandemics in human populations: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-... with exciting speakers.
Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social
Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social
Panel Discussion: 'What turns spillovers into epidemics?'
This talk brings together experts in pathogen genomics, virology, ecology, climate science, and data science to explore how AI, genomic surveillance, and…
www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk
May 1, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Really looking forward to this event @oxmartinschool.bsky.social on what turns spillovers into epidemics/pandemics in human populations: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-... with exciting speakers.
Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social
Hosted by the Pandemic Genomics program and moderated by @jessmetcalf.bsky.social
Reposted by Moritz Kraemer
What turns a virus spillover into an epidemic? 🌍🦠
Join leading experts to explore how AI, genomics & ecology shape epidemic forecasting.
📍Oxford Martin School & Online
⏰ May 19 5–6:15pm
Register here: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-turns-spillovers-into-epidemics
Join leading experts to explore how AI, genomics & ecology shape epidemic forecasting.
📍Oxford Martin School & Online
⏰ May 19 5–6:15pm
Register here: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-turns-spillovers-into-epidemics
May 15, 2025 at 10:02 AM
What turns a virus spillover into an epidemic? 🌍🦠
Join leading experts to explore how AI, genomics & ecology shape epidemic forecasting.
📍Oxford Martin School & Online
⏰ May 19 5–6:15pm
Register here: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-turns-spillovers-into-epidemics
Join leading experts to explore how AI, genomics & ecology shape epidemic forecasting.
📍Oxford Martin School & Online
⏰ May 19 5–6:15pm
Register here: https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/what-turns-spillovers-into-epidemics
Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research - Nature
The proliferation of artificial intelligence tools in scientific research risks creating illusions of understanding, where scientists believe they understand more about the world than they actual...
www.nature.com
May 14, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
