Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics

royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...

Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others

From January to 8 October 2025, France (n = 700) and Italy (n = 353) have reported CHIKV cases widely across their territories. The increase in clusters coincides with global outbreaks and temperature anomalies in Europe.

Active clusters shown here:
gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...

The role of climate variability in shaping the 2023/24 outbreak of Dengue in Brazil (📉 in north regions; 📈 in southern populous regions).

Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

So proud of Dr. Joseph Tsui, whom I had the great pleasure of co-advising with Oliver Pybus, for finishing his DPhil yesterday.

Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution).

Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI

Write-up of our open-source software tool, Grapevne, enabling rapid construction of multi-data type workflows for enhanced pandemic preparedness.

It was born out of the need to repeat analyses during the invasion of multiple Variants of Concern.

wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

New preprint by Joseph Tsui (www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/people/josep...) on the detection of viral importations of emerging infectious diseases under low sampling regimes.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Critical work for more accurately estimating the timing and intensity of lineage movements.

@nature.com is providing a list to their articles on how science is being reshaped by the new US administration, including a recent piece on the termination of active research grants: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Integrating artificial intelligence with mechanistic epidemiological modeling: a scoping review of opportunities and challenges

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

2025 is when we'll be moving into one of the "11 architecture projects set to shape the world in 2025" according to the CNN: edition.cnn.com/2025/01/01/s...

Latest national flu (and other respiratory infection) report. High levels observed for hospital admissions and laboratory surveillance for flu.

www.gov.uk/government/s...

New study on dengue importation dynamics in Africa combining passenger flight, suitability, and seasonal transmission dynamics.

Led by Jenicca Poongavanan and Houriiyah Tegally.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Our DPhil student @cathalmills.bsky.social presented on his framework estimating the reproduction number for vector borne diseases at the #dengue analytics meeting at the Pandemic Hub (pandemichub.who.int) last week.

Looking forward for this community to grow.

arxiv.org/abs/2409.18726

I am so incredibly proud of Dr. Sumali Bajaj, who passed her viva with *no corrections* yesterday.

She was examined by @anne-cori.bsky.social and Deirdre Hollingsworth.

Some recent work led by Sumali:
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...