Michael A. Rodriguez, PhD
@mroddc.bsky.social
Director of Research @ Smart Growth America / @smartgrowthusa.bsky.social . Economist & urban planner. Passion for cities, data, real estate, & transpo. 🚉 DC area's journeyman adjunct professor of planning and policy. 🎓. 🐶 are the best.
Yeah where it’s tricky. Now I wanna call a friend on this! Cuz like they “look at website prices” sure, but that’s diff than “you get a special price if your email is registered, and click on the special offer coupon” — murky waters When is a coupon still a coupon ? Etc
November 10, 2025 at 4:28 AM
Yeah where it’s tricky. Now I wanna call a friend on this! Cuz like they “look at website prices” sure, but that’s diff than “you get a special price if your email is registered, and click on the special offer coupon” — murky waters When is a coupon still a coupon ? Etc
And partly why it’s acute is because there was so much Covid era housing subsidy / policy that mildly dampened prices (esp for lower incomes) and it went away much by now. Combined w a higher int rate env. & it really is a more 2023-2025 thing
November 10, 2025 at 4:25 AM
And partly why it’s acute is because there was so much Covid era housing subsidy / policy that mildly dampened prices (esp for lower incomes) and it went away much by now. Combined w a higher int rate env. & it really is a more 2023-2025 thing
For sure. If there’s one big, large aspect to it all id say it’s that 1) poorer ppl spend way more % on housing , 2) it is out of control, 3) even worse when you account for reasonable location expectations and not just “well then rent in the boons!” I think that’s where it’s acute and bad.
November 10, 2025 at 4:24 AM
For sure. If there’s one big, large aspect to it all id say it’s that 1) poorer ppl spend way more % on housing , 2) it is out of control, 3) even worse when you account for reasonable location expectations and not just “well then rent in the boons!” I think that’s where it’s acute and bad.
Also side rant: who are these sociopaths who fly from the east coast to California with nothing but a carryon bag?! What flippant life is this?
November 10, 2025 at 4:19 AM
Also side rant: who are these sociopaths who fly from the east coast to California with nothing but a carryon bag?! What flippant life is this?
Would be interesting to research. I could see a hypothesis that lower income ppl, when traveling, would be far more likely to travel w more baggage since it’s not a casual occurrence and often a bigger deal like a vacation or man trip to see family.
November 10, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Would be interesting to research. I could see a hypothesis that lower income ppl, when traveling, would be far more likely to travel w more baggage since it’s not a casual occurrence and often a bigger deal like a vacation or man trip to see family.
Pretty sure digital coupons are still just a coupon not assumed as available to all. But not sure what they do about “it says $10.99 /lb but 9.99/lb if you have a safeway card, meaning you give them some phone number, and no one really ever pays the higher price”— the latter im less clear on.
November 10, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Pretty sure digital coupons are still just a coupon not assumed as available to all. But not sure what they do about “it says $10.99 /lb but 9.99/lb if you have a safeway card, meaning you give them some phone number, and no one really ever pays the higher price”— the latter im less clear on.
Pretty sure the in-app stuff is treated no different than loyalty discounts or Sunday part coupons. So depending how prevalent use is, the BLS might understate a McDouble price (I’ve no clue how popular using the app discounts is). It gets trickier w Safeway posted vs “give us your phone #” price
November 10, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Pretty sure the in-app stuff is treated no different than loyalty discounts or Sunday part coupons. So depending how prevalent use is, the BLS might understate a McDouble price (I’ve no clue how popular using the app discounts is). It gets trickier w Safeway posted vs “give us your phone #” price
That’s an interesting one actually. They sort of randomly model it so 80% of base fares will not check a bag, but then add *exactly* one bag for the 20%. No accounting for subsequent bags, seat selection, etc. And bags are where rich freq fliers and prem cardholders do benefit a ton vs poorer!
November 10, 2025 at 4:04 AM
That’s an interesting one actually. They sort of randomly model it so 80% of base fares will not check a bag, but then add *exactly* one bag for the 20%. No accounting for subsequent bags, seat selection, etc. And bags are where rich freq fliers and prem cardholders do benefit a ton vs poorer!
And the reason this is incredibly important to adjust for quality expectations is so you don’t fall into some Heritage style bullshit like “the poorest person today lives a material quality of life far higher than a 1790 innkeeper, so problem solved and stop bitching!”
November 10, 2025 at 3:55 AM
And the reason this is incredibly important to adjust for quality expectations is so you don’t fall into some Heritage style bullshit like “the poorest person today lives a material quality of life far higher than a 1790 innkeeper, so problem solved and stop bitching!”
This phenomenon is about things like quality adjustment, right? You can always say “live w the consumer products and quality you had 15-20 years ago you petulant, whiny child!” But that’s not how it all works. We adjust to quality expectations! Or else we’d have “dumbphones” as a baseline mobile.
November 10, 2025 at 3:48 AM
This phenomenon is about things like quality adjustment, right? You can always say “live w the consumer products and quality you had 15-20 years ago you petulant, whiny child!” But that’s not how it all works. We adjust to quality expectations! Or else we’d have “dumbphones” as a baseline mobile.
Like by all means I’m an anti-inflation truther. I think CPI is the best we’ve got, really. But it can sometimes lag vs pricing practices, and certainly behind consumer expectations. We can laugh at those expectations but they influence perceptions.
November 10, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Like by all means I’m an anti-inflation truther. I think CPI is the best we’ve got, really. But it can sometimes lag vs pricing practices, and certainly behind consumer expectations. We can laugh at those expectations but they influence perceptions.
The point I’d cede is that this dynamic is sort of always there and has been so it’s not like a 2023, 2024, 2025 specific thing. My main point is that CPI can lag behind premiumization / upsell schemes — and maybe *some* of that is acute right now.
November 10, 2025 at 3:43 AM
The point I’d cede is that this dynamic is sort of always there and has been so it’s not like a 2023, 2024, 2025 specific thing. My main point is that CPI can lag behind premiumization / upsell schemes — and maybe *some* of that is acute right now.
When software went from a buy once capital expense to “pay subscription forever” it took CPI years to change the definition. And they don’t backdate it. So ms office used to cost like $200 once for life (or say 5-10 years) now it’s $70-120 per year forever and ever
November 10, 2025 at 3:39 AM
When software went from a buy once capital expense to “pay subscription forever” it took CPI years to change the definition. And they don’t backdate it. So ms office used to cost like $200 once for life (or say 5-10 years) now it’s $70-120 per year forever and ever
And when people get nickeled and dimed that doesn’t reflect. Have to pay $15 to activate your heated seats on a car? Sorry. Not gonna easily be reflected in CPI. Pressure to tip when you used to not have to? Also not gonna reflect.
November 10, 2025 at 3:36 AM
And when people get nickeled and dimed that doesn’t reflect. Have to pay $15 to activate your heated seats on a car? Sorry. Not gonna easily be reflected in CPI. Pressure to tip when you used to not have to? Also not gonna reflect.
Like, maybe don’t demand a burrito taxi? Like I get it. But it’s more that the BLS doesn’t sit and adjust quickly to “food away from home now means tons of people expensively opting to pay for a burrito taxi”. And way harder to catch right w dynamic pricing even if you wanted to.
November 10, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Like, maybe don’t demand a burrito taxi? Like I get it. But it’s more that the BLS doesn’t sit and adjust quickly to “food away from home now means tons of people expensively opting to pay for a burrito taxi”. And way harder to catch right w dynamic pricing even if you wanted to.
Another good example is “food away from home”. That’s a funky one to debate but does prove an odd point. But yeah, people now expect a taxi for their burrito. And it makes their lived experience price for “food away from home” far more expensive than the way it used to be captured.
November 10, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Another good example is “food away from home”. That’s a funky one to debate but does prove an odd point. But yeah, people now expect a taxi for their burrito. And it makes their lived experience price for “food away from home” far more expensive than the way it used to be captured.
So what’s your definition of an “airline price” , for example? Per base fares (what CPI will use) prices have gone down or stayed level or modest. But that’s only because they’ve stripped away rights that were once part of it: bags, seat selection, etc.
November 10, 2025 at 3:29 AM
So what’s your definition of an “airline price” , for example? Per base fares (what CPI will use) prices have gone down or stayed level or modest. But that’s only because they’ve stripped away rights that were once part of it: bags, seat selection, etc.
I am literally saying here that CPI will count base prices but not count for outmaneuvering by cos. as thy premium-ize basic things that used to be part of the bundle. Think: ad free streaming, 4K quality , etc. And it takes long, long time for CPi to redefine
November 10, 2025 at 3:28 AM
I am literally saying here that CPI will count base prices but not count for outmaneuvering by cos. as thy premium-ize basic things that used to be part of the bundle. Think: ad free streaming, 4K quality , etc. And it takes long, long time for CPi to redefine
CPI makes attempts to capture true prices of lived experience but is known to fail behind if the market shifts fast in pricing strategies. Airline fees (bags, right to pick a seat, have a carryon, etc) aren’t part of “base fare” which could would collect. They get outfoxed, basically.
November 10, 2025 at 3:25 AM
CPI makes attempts to capture true prices of lived experience but is known to fail behind if the market shifts fast in pricing strategies. Airline fees (bags, right to pick a seat, have a carryon, etc) aren’t part of “base fare” which could would collect. They get outfoxed, basically.
Warner somehow did better than you.
November 10, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Warner somehow did better than you.
In fact, as ppl. move to less convenient housing CPI will simply reflect the new cheaper housing way out wherever. So you can say that the basket itself sort of lowers its standards as people get dejected and “settle”. All that matters, a lot. And it’s way harder to empirically capture.
November 9, 2025 at 1:57 PM
In fact, as ppl. move to less convenient housing CPI will simply reflect the new cheaper housing way out wherever. So you can say that the basket itself sort of lowers its standards as people get dejected and “settle”. All that matters, a lot. And it’s way harder to empirically capture.
Then there’s is the location question. Basket of goods doesn’t account for “housing in a reasonable place to commute that used to be attainable”. So sure, aggr. housing costs might not look insane, bc you can always rent 90 mins from work in bumfk god knows where!
November 9, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Then there’s is the location question. Basket of goods doesn’t account for “housing in a reasonable place to commute that used to be attainable”. So sure, aggr. housing costs might not look insane, bc you can always rent 90 mins from work in bumfk god knows where!
And I say this with full expertise on BLS / CPI stuff. You’re empirically right if you follow BLS measures and real wages. You’re v wrong if you detail different parts of the inc. dist., and if you est. a life standard not reflected in the basket o’goods but is reflected in perceived expectation.
November 9, 2025 at 1:45 PM
And I say this with full expertise on BLS / CPI stuff. You’re empirically right if you follow BLS measures and real wages. You’re v wrong if you detail different parts of the inc. dist., and if you est. a life standard not reflected in the basket o’goods but is reflected in perceived expectation.
It really isn’t incontrovertible, mainly on housing. And for a certain expectation of life. If you set a standard of “own a home, send kid to a reasonable college” you see it’s nearly impossible when it was once possible. So if you shift the goal posts, sure, you can survive and have many TVs.
November 9, 2025 at 1:43 PM
It really isn’t incontrovertible, mainly on housing. And for a certain expectation of life. If you set a standard of “own a home, send kid to a reasonable college” you see it’s nearly impossible when it was once possible. So if you shift the goal posts, sure, you can survive and have many TVs.