Michal Ovádek
@movadek.bsky.social
Lecturer in European Institutions, Politics and Policy at University College London
https://michalovadek.github.io/
https://michalovadek.github.io/
this appears on page 103 of about 200
December 11, 2025 at 10:32 PM
this appears on page 103 of about 200
perfectly timed for the proofs of my book
December 11, 2025 at 3:56 PM
perfectly timed for the proofs of my book
the parliament in Slovakia just abolished an office for the protection of whistleblowers. Among others it shielded policemen who previously investigated corruption charges against politicians and oligarchs close to the current government
December 9, 2025 at 12:13 PM
the parliament in Slovakia just abolished an office for the protection of whistleblowers. Among others it shielded policemen who previously investigated corruption charges against politicians and oligarchs close to the current government
same model specification with marginaleffects::plot_predictions(): condition="treated" on the left, by="treated" on the right
I'll be mightily surprised if there aren't multiple replication notes highlighting this discrepancy in the coming years across various fields
I'll be mightily surprised if there aren't multiple replication notes highlighting this discrepancy in the coming years across various fields
December 4, 2025 at 12:18 PM
same model specification with marginaleffects::plot_predictions(): condition="treated" on the left, by="treated" on the right
I'll be mightily surprised if there aren't multiple replication notes highlighting this discrepancy in the coming years across various fields
I'll be mightily surprised if there aren't multiple replication notes highlighting this discrepancy in the coming years across various fields
realized earlier how over it is after I absent-mindedly apologized to Claude Code for interrupting its terminal
October 16, 2025 at 10:33 PM
realized earlier how over it is after I absent-mindedly apologized to Claude Code for interrupting its terminal
I wish I had time for a fuller description of how much of a racket the British immigration system is -- I and my employer paid thousands of pounds for the privilege of working and paying taxes here -- but this service option of a Home Office subcontractor will have to do for now
September 20, 2025 at 11:54 AM
I wish I had time for a fuller description of how much of a racket the British immigration system is -- I and my employer paid thousands of pounds for the privilege of working and paying taxes here -- but this service option of a Home Office subcontractor will have to do for now
finally a venue for APSA appropriate to the study of animal attacks on voting behaviour
September 8, 2025 at 5:42 PM
finally a venue for APSA appropriate to the study of animal attacks on voting behaviour
marking some intro to quant submissions and wanted to see what chatgpt has to say on one of the most basic questions. Not one for general AI bashing but did not expect a mistake in the most boilerplate Python code imaginable (the issue is the data is continuous, so the mode doesn't work)
September 2, 2025 at 9:28 AM
marking some intro to quant submissions and wanted to see what chatgpt has to say on one of the most basic questions. Not one for general AI bashing but did not expect a mistake in the most boilerplate Python code imaginable (the issue is the data is continuous, so the mode doesn't work)
this man absolutely never misses (an opportunity to take an obtusely contrarian position)
August 2, 2025 at 9:12 AM
this man absolutely never misses (an opportunity to take an obtusely contrarian position)
So far these results are pretty consistent with the literature on (immigration) judging. The second result diverges somewhat from previous US studies on judicial diversity. Female BAME judges are similarly "conservative" to white male judges. This is consistent with qualitative evidence.
July 30, 2025 at 3:37 PM
So far these results are pretty consistent with the literature on (immigration) judging. The second result diverges somewhat from previous US studies on judicial diversity. Female BAME judges are similarly "conservative" to white male judges. This is consistent with qualitative evidence.
Wait, but aren't these differences between judges simply due to differences between cases? Not as far as I can tell. Matching on 15 observable covariates (case type, applicant characteristics, legal representatives, etc.), the variation between judges hardly shrinks at all.
July 30, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Wait, but aren't these differences between judges simply due to differences between cases? Not as far as I can tell. Matching on 15 observable covariates (case type, applicant characteristics, legal representatives, etc.), the variation between judges hardly shrinks at all.
Immigration, including asylum, cases pit an individual against the government, so we can measure outcomes by how often a judge rules in favour of the government. It turns out there is a lot of variation here. You can think of negative values as "liberal" and positive as "conservative" if you like.
July 30, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Immigration, including asylum, cases pit an individual against the government, so we can measure outcomes by how often a judge rules in favour of the government. It turns out there is a lot of variation here. You can think of negative values as "liberal" and positive as "conservative" if you like.
this government's immigration policy and messaging is just this scene from Arrested Development on repeat
July 23, 2025 at 10:40 PM
this government's immigration policy and messaging is just this scene from Arrested Development on repeat
academia, meeting the moment as per usual. From Richard Cockett, "Vienna" Yale UP
July 23, 2025 at 2:56 PM
academia, meeting the moment as per usual. From Richard Cockett, "Vienna" Yale UP
will be riding the high of this result for the remainder of the week
July 16, 2025 at 10:50 AM
will be riding the high of this result for the remainder of the week
people compare the future ICE to a sort of American Gestapo. However, the actual Nazi Gestapo was orders of magnitudes smaller than ICE will be after this bill
July 4, 2025 at 11:10 AM
people compare the future ICE to a sort of American Gestapo. However, the actual Nazi Gestapo was orders of magnitudes smaller than ICE will be after this bill
The @financialtimes.com has been reporting that the EU is planning to ban Russian gas imports using its trade competences. But sanctions through trade law have a long history in the EU, stretching back to at least the Falklands crisis, as I show in my forthcoming book. Time is a flat circle!
June 18, 2025 at 10:33 AM
The @financialtimes.com has been reporting that the EU is planning to ban Russian gas imports using its trade competences. But sanctions through trade law have a long history in the EU, stretching back to at least the Falklands crisis, as I show in my forthcoming book. Time is a flat circle!
belatedly celebrating the successful conclusion of the third Nuffield-UCL workshop on social science approaches to law and courts. Special thanks to @icuervo.bsky.social and @egocantos.bsky.social for making everyone feel welcome in Oxford
June 16, 2025 at 10:55 AM
belatedly celebrating the successful conclusion of the third Nuffield-UCL workshop on social science approaches to law and courts. Special thanks to @icuervo.bsky.social and @egocantos.bsky.social for making everyone feel welcome in Oxford
15 years since the publication of Imai et al's causal mediation analysis paper the method seems to be more popular than ever. The adoption lags in methods papers are something else
June 15, 2025 at 10:05 PM
15 years since the publication of Imai et al's causal mediation analysis paper the method seems to be more popular than ever. The adoption lags in methods papers are something else
once again thinking of this paper - published last year - for no reason at all
June 12, 2025 at 7:42 PM
once again thinking of this paper - published last year - for no reason at all
for the true connoisseurs:
May 9, 2025 at 9:46 PM
for the true connoisseurs:
Robert Fico, the EU's latest pet autocrat, is attending Putin's military parade in Moscow today. He is the only EU leader to be present - even Viktor Orban has skipped this one
May 9, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Robert Fico, the EU's latest pet autocrat, is attending Putin's military parade in Moscow today. He is the only EU leader to be present - even Viktor Orban has skipped this one
the first known machine learner (from Chernozhukov et al: arxiv.org/pdf/2403.02467)
May 9, 2025 at 2:02 PM
the first known machine learner (from Chernozhukov et al: arxiv.org/pdf/2403.02467)
one hates to admit it but it's kinda nice here
March 31, 2025 at 3:23 PM
one hates to admit it but it's kinda nice here