MoonWinds
@moonwinds.bsky.social
the french part not gonna matter much, quebec not for them for now, always difficult to argue against them for long considering their situation at state level, probly only one good leader away from renewal though.
November 29, 2025 at 11:25 PM
the french part not gonna matter much, quebec not for them for now, always difficult to argue against them for long considering their situation at state level, probly only one good leader away from renewal though.
the electorates in 24 prez and both mamdani elections are very different, trumps gains in 24 were predominantly with low propensity voters among those cohorts mentioned above, evidence of overlap of electorate and then persuasion very low, 'miniscule' .
November 29, 2025 at 11:13 PM
the electorates in 24 prez and both mamdani elections are very different, trumps gains in 24 were predominantly with low propensity voters among those cohorts mentioned above, evidence of overlap of electorate and then persuasion very low, 'miniscule' .
there's certainly opening to be competitive with them, btw they're still in a pretty strong position.
right wing combined is very strong in new media too.
right wing combined is very strong in new media too.
Fox Acquires Conservative Podcast Company Red Seat Ventures
Fox Corp. acquiring Red Seat Ventures, which provides podcasting support services media personalities like Megyn Kelly and Nancy Grace, is one of several media expansions by the company.
www.forbes.com
November 29, 2025 at 11:03 PM
there's certainly opening to be competitive with them, btw they're still in a pretty strong position.
right wing combined is very strong in new media too.
right wing combined is very strong in new media too.
i mean we literally lost pro-dem gerrymandered NC state legislature in 2010, demolished all over south in states, never recovered yet, but not a peep to obama?
November 29, 2025 at 5:48 AM
i mean we literally lost pro-dem gerrymandered NC state legislature in 2010, demolished all over south in states, never recovered yet, but not a peep to obama?
what even is this take here,
sanders and warren smart? feel more like vibe media performance analysis. also like both clintons smart? hillary who prepared to win missouri as bottom was falling out? media leader obama who nobody asks about losing healthcare narrative and 2010?
sanders and warren smart? feel more like vibe media performance analysis. also like both clintons smart? hillary who prepared to win missouri as bottom was falling out? media leader obama who nobody asks about losing healthcare narrative and 2010?
November 29, 2025 at 5:46 AM
what even is this take here,
sanders and warren smart? feel more like vibe media performance analysis. also like both clintons smart? hillary who prepared to win missouri as bottom was falling out? media leader obama who nobody asks about losing healthcare narrative and 2010?
sanders and warren smart? feel more like vibe media performance analysis. also like both clintons smart? hillary who prepared to win missouri as bottom was falling out? media leader obama who nobody asks about losing healthcare narrative and 2010?
spoken like someone who hasn't seen a large sample of door knocking, focus group, polls where when *unprompted* people will literally spew exact keywords that fox introduced mere days ago with their latest push. right wing has a huge loudness and volume play advantage, it is problematic to deny it.
November 29, 2025 at 5:23 AM
spoken like someone who hasn't seen a large sample of door knocking, focus group, polls where when *unprompted* people will literally spew exact keywords that fox introduced mere days ago with their latest push. right wing has a huge loudness and volume play advantage, it is problematic to deny it.
sampling not issue here. mostly unrecoverable numbers.
Pew Research poll - Latino Voters
Trump approval
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
Trump approval
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%
www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...
November 25, 2025 at 2:00 AM
sampling not issue here. mostly unrecoverable numbers.
complexity, credibility , specificity of tasks, also industrial humanoid automation is actually pretty good now.
November 25, 2025 at 1:36 AM
complexity, credibility , specificity of tasks, also industrial humanoid automation is actually pretty good now.
because their life beyond office depends on how 'good ol boys' they are now, all their statements are pretense, they don't believe like freedom caucus members, they are pretentious letter sending do nothing people who want a NYT headshot which makes them 'not complicit' and 'independent'.
November 25, 2025 at 1:22 AM
because their life beyond office depends on how 'good ol boys' they are now, all their statements are pretense, they don't believe like freedom caucus members, they are pretentious letter sending do nothing people who want a NYT headshot which makes them 'not complicit' and 'independent'.
Any data source for this?
The number is actually miniscule from data I've seen.
Seems mostly politico intrigue but data wise all those mamdani-trump voters, AOC-Trump voters are negligible, they're also not odd per voter preference data.
The number is actually miniscule from data I've seen.
Seems mostly politico intrigue but data wise all those mamdani-trump voters, AOC-Trump voters are negligible, they're also not odd per voter preference data.
November 25, 2025 at 1:15 AM
Any data source for this?
The number is actually miniscule from data I've seen.
Seems mostly politico intrigue but data wise all those mamdani-trump voters, AOC-Trump voters are negligible, they're also not odd per voter preference data.
The number is actually miniscule from data I've seen.
Seems mostly politico intrigue but data wise all those mamdani-trump voters, AOC-Trump voters are negligible, they're also not odd per voter preference data.
Nuking the filibuster would have come, nothing would have saved Republicans from even a Senate loss in *26'* with what their plans were/are.
Everyone knows whose votes Kaine and others took upon themselves and what their thoughts about filibuster are even today after all we're seeing with SCOTUS.
Everyone knows whose votes Kaine and others took upon themselves and what their thoughts about filibuster are even today after all we're seeing with SCOTUS.
November 20, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Nuking the filibuster would have come, nothing would have saved Republicans from even a Senate loss in *26'* with what their plans were/are.
Everyone knows whose votes Kaine and others took upon themselves and what their thoughts about filibuster are even today after all we're seeing with SCOTUS.
Everyone knows whose votes Kaine and others took upon themselves and what their thoughts about filibuster are even today after all we're seeing with SCOTUS.
At least 2 of these are known to poll 2:1 in favor, what is this even..
November 20, 2025 at 1:01 AM
At least 2 of these are known to poll 2:1 in favor, what is this even..
The only problem this cycle would probably be lack of depth and breadth of imagination.
November 20, 2025 at 12:50 AM
The only problem this cycle would probably be lack of depth and breadth of imagination.
I think the height and size dynamic is a thing here in this relationship, probly in any relationship with mike johnson.
November 20, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I think the height and size dynamic is a thing here in this relationship, probly in any relationship with mike johnson.
Have a theory about biden 2020 Latino losses wrt 2016?
Umich ratings *vastly* better in ~17-19' compared to anything after, by big margins. Perhaps the theory of why biden lost chunk of Latino vote in 20' wrt 16' was truly 'shutdown dems' and trump economic standing hitting low info low income marginal latino vote that depended on *everyday* work.
November 20, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Have a theory about biden 2020 Latino losses wrt 2016?
2020 exits had trump winning economy voters by *larger* margin than biden won covid issue voters and both were ~ 80-20 issues.
Trump strongest issues of economy and inflation are now weakest by large margins. Highly likely that those low propensity presidential voters turn completely to dems.
Trump strongest issues of economy and inflation are now weakest by large margins. Highly likely that those low propensity presidential voters turn completely to dems.
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 PM
2020 exits had trump winning economy voters by *larger* margin than biden won covid issue voters and both were ~ 80-20 issues.
Trump strongest issues of economy and inflation are now weakest by large margins. Highly likely that those low propensity presidential voters turn completely to dems.
Trump strongest issues of economy and inflation are now weakest by large margins. Highly likely that those low propensity presidential voters turn completely to dems.
Umich ratings *vastly* better in ~17-19' compared to anything after, by big margins. Perhaps the theory of why biden lost chunk of Latino vote in 20' wrt 16' was truly 'shutdown dems' and trump economic standing hitting low info low income marginal latino vote that depended on *everyday* work.
November 17, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Umich ratings *vastly* better in ~17-19' compared to anything after, by big margins. Perhaps the theory of why biden lost chunk of Latino vote in 20' wrt 16' was truly 'shutdown dems' and trump economic standing hitting low info low income marginal latino vote that depended on *everyday* work.
Just to point some perhaps useful data regarding this,
per NJ and VA exits, the single best predictor of den vote across the *whole* voting electorate was,
whether one thought ICE has gone far enough or not?
per NJ and VA exits, the single best predictor of den vote across the *whole* voting electorate was,
whether one thought ICE has gone far enough or not?
November 17, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Just to point some perhaps useful data regarding this,
per NJ and VA exits, the single best predictor of den vote across the *whole* voting electorate was,
whether one thought ICE has gone far enough or not?
per NJ and VA exits, the single best predictor of den vote across the *whole* voting electorate was,
whether one thought ICE has gone far enough or not?
@mikemadrid.bsky.social
Think you're right about economy first and perhaps social cause(immigration raids?) by good margins probably, but have you written or have we had a @thelatinovote.bsky.social segment about comparing these two causes as a vote predictor? be a good experiment to have perhaps?
Think you're right about economy first and perhaps social cause(immigration raids?) by good margins probably, but have you written or have we had a @thelatinovote.bsky.social segment about comparing these two causes as a vote predictor? be a good experiment to have perhaps?
November 17, 2025 at 10:41 PM
@mikemadrid.bsky.social
Think you're right about economy first and perhaps social cause(immigration raids?) by good margins probably, but have you written or have we had a @thelatinovote.bsky.social segment about comparing these two causes as a vote predictor? be a good experiment to have perhaps?
Think you're right about economy first and perhaps social cause(immigration raids?) by good margins probably, but have you written or have we had a @thelatinovote.bsky.social segment about comparing these two causes as a vote predictor? be a good experiment to have perhaps?
Lib well off audience. welp.
November 17, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Lib well off audience. welp.
@meidastouch.com
Had you very early after 24' loss to debunk some bad info propping up in the ecosystem.
Was very important and good then.
@meidastouch.com
Please have him regularly, must have perspective and insight from a solid pro democracy guy.
Had you very early after 24' loss to debunk some bad info propping up in the ecosystem.
Was very important and good then.
@meidastouch.com
Please have him regularly, must have perspective and insight from a solid pro democracy guy.
November 17, 2025 at 10:20 PM
@meidastouch.com
Had you very early after 24' loss to debunk some bad info propping up in the ecosystem.
Was very important and good then.
@meidastouch.com
Please have him regularly, must have perspective and insight from a solid pro democracy guy.
Had you very early after 24' loss to debunk some bad info propping up in the ecosystem.
Was very important and good then.
@meidastouch.com
Please have him regularly, must have perspective and insight from a solid pro democracy guy.
Finger in the wind.
November 17, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Finger in the wind.
I myself was skeptical of the analysis below when it came out, but the electoral data is bearing this hypothesis out. Credible explanation of what we're seeing in reality.
November 17, 2025 at 9:42 PM
I myself was skeptical of the analysis below when it came out, but the electoral data is bearing this hypothesis out. Credible explanation of what we're seeing in reality.
The shock wrt before pandemic *prices* is what they are constantly hitting at, now other *high volume affecting* living conditions like healthcare, goods supply, etc issues, initiated by Trump adding to same *shock* hit. Hence, rapid shifts against the incumbent(even though incumbent changed).
November 13, 2025 at 4:21 PM
The shock wrt before pandemic *prices* is what they are constantly hitting at, now other *high volume affecting* living conditions like healthcare, goods supply, etc issues, initiated by Trump adding to same *shock* hit. Hence, rapid shifts against the incumbent(even though incumbent changed).