monopsnoopy
@monopsnoopy.bsky.social
From London to Paris and back again. Economics. Jewish, wondering.
Reposted by monopsnoopy
Such an important data visualisation - a lot of the commentary about support for Reform on the left is just not supported by the evidence.
This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.
May 8, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Such an important data visualisation - a lot of the commentary about support for Reform on the left is just not supported by the evidence.
Reposted by monopsnoopy
Every day, I think, “okay, there can’t be a better case study for how incoherent the government is”, and then they give us a doozy like “reverse or soften the winter fuel decision AND go harder on welfare cuts”.
“We didn’t go big enough the first time round. The costs are unsustainable,” one No 10 source said. “It’s a fairness issue but also a fiscal one – how can we spend money on the public’s priorities, like schools and hospitals, if all the money is going on welfare?”
Hard to see MPs agreeing…
Hard to see MPs agreeing…
May 5, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Every day, I think, “okay, there can’t be a better case study for how incoherent the government is”, and then they give us a doozy like “reverse or soften the winter fuel decision AND go harder on welfare cuts”.
Reposted by monopsnoopy
This is wholly correct - Lynton Crosby, for instance, didn't come back full time until 2013. The Thatcher government didn't start thinking about the election until 1982.
(My actual view is that Labour would be better off locking their political strategists out of the room for a few years and only letting them back in when there’s ~18 months to go before the general election)
May 2, 2025 at 8:13 AM
This is wholly correct - Lynton Crosby, for instance, didn't come back full time until 2013. The Thatcher government didn't start thinking about the election until 1982.
Reposted by monopsnoopy
I can identify with Morgan. I always tend to look at evidence and conclude I was right all along….Though I’d note that Ros Jones didn’t blame immigration for her close result, but PIP, winter fuel etc
Hearing those six voters all wrote “I hate Ed miliband” on their ballots
May 2, 2025 at 7:42 AM
I can identify with Morgan. I always tend to look at evidence and conclude I was right all along….Though I’d note that Ros Jones didn’t blame immigration for her close result, but PIP, winter fuel etc
Reposted by monopsnoopy
So far this feels both very accurate and very likely to make the situation worse not better for Labour
My lesson of last night’s elections (so far) is that Labour are getting outflanked on cultural right and economic left by Reform (ie complaints about WFA, PIP) but seem to have chosen so far to worry only about former.
May 2, 2025 at 7:34 AM
So far this feels both very accurate and very likely to make the situation worse not better for Labour
this site might have the juice
Shamefully proud of this response to a Spurs fan getting very angry that my assessment of Ange’s tactics is stupid.
Almost certainly, it’s drawing on a sample size of “N=5”, five being the number of games he has managed against Arsenal without winning.
September 15, 2024 at 7:17 PM
this site might have the juice