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momoracle.bsky.social
MoMoracle
@momoracle.bsky.social
18 followers 11 following 110 posts
Modular Modelling for Election Predictions across the World.

Momoracle.com
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momoracle.bsky.social
We predict a parliamentary majority for the Liberals of Mark Carney in today's Canadian elections

#CanadaElections2025 #Carney #Poilievre #Canada
April 28, 2025 at 5:31 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Our final forecast for the Hamburg state election: SPD 32.3%, CDU 17.5%, Greens 17.2%, Left 11.4%, AfD 9.9%, BSW 2.7%, FDP 2.7%, Volt 2.7% #Buergerschaftswahl2025

Compared to last week: SPD +0.4%, CDU/CSU +0.0%, Greens, -1.4%, Left +2.1%, AfD +0.4%, BSW -0.3%, FDP -0.3%, Volt -0.3%
March 1, 2025 at 3:31 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
5/ Social Media Insight
Our Social Media Strength (SMS) index didn’t tweak our main model - German polls are too good. But it hinted at AfD’s stall and Left’s last-minute surge, adding depth to the data. Social media vibes mattered, even if subtle.
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
1/ Our German Election Review The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter?

A deep dive into the results. 👇
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
The correlation between online strength and polling is weak at best for the parties – with the exception of the Linke:
February 23, 2025 at 2:39 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
1. The AfD is in a strong first place, but it strength has declined substantially since the Musk-Weidel talk.
February 23, 2025 at 2:39 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion (pass 5% threshold or win at least 3 districts) // Kommt die Linke in Fraktionsstärke in den Bundestag (5% Hürde oder mind. 3 Direktmandate)?

Predicted Probability: 98.84%

#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 12:39 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the Left win 3 or more districts / Gewinnt Die Linke 3 oder mehr Wahlkreise?

Predicted probability: 90.28%

#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 12:35 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the CDU/CDU win the German election?

Predicted Probability: 99.79%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #Merz #CDU #CSU
February 22, 2025 at 9:11 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the AfD win the 2nd most seats in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 99.08%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
February 22, 2025 at 9:08 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the Left win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 88.09%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
February 22, 2025 at 8:51 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the BSW win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 34%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
February 22, 2025 at 8:47 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 24.93%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner
February 22, 2025 at 8:43 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the Greens win 15% or more of the vote in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 8.5%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Gruene #Gruenen #Habeck #Baerbock
February 22, 2025 at 8:38 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Our final forecast for the German national election: CDU/CSU 29.9%, AfD 20.5%, SPD 15.3%, Greens 13.1%, Left 7.2%, BSW 4.5%, FDP 4.4%, Others 5.7%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #Bundestagswahl #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #AfD #SPD #Gruenen #Linke #BSW #FDP #Merz #Weidel #Scholz #Habeck
February 22, 2025 at 8:09 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Forecast update for the Hamburg state election:
SPD 31.9%, Greens 18.6%, CDU 17.5%, AfD 9.5%, Left 9.3%, BSW 3.0%, FDP 3.0%, Volt 3.0%, Others 4.1% #Buergerschaftswahl

Compared to last week: SPD +0.2%, Greens, -0.9%, CDU/CSU -0.4%, AfD +0.4%, Left +0.9%, BSW 0.0%, FDP 0.0%, Volt 0.0%, Others -0.3%
February 22, 2025 at 4:50 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Our 21 February update for the German national election:
CDU/CSU 29.9%, AfD 20.5%, SPD 15.3%, Greens 13.3%, Left 7.1%, BSW 4.5%, FDP 4.4%, Others 5.6%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #Bundestagswahl #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #AfD #SPD #Gruenen #Linke #BSW #FDP #Merz #Weidel #Scholz #Habeck
February 21, 2025 at 5:17 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the CDU/CDU win the German election?

Current Probability: 99.98%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #Merz #CDU #CSU
February 20, 2025 at 4:55 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the AfD win the 2nd most seats in the German election?

Current Probability: 98.94%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
February 20, 2025 at 4:41 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the Left win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Current Probability: 73.28%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken
February 20, 2025 at 4:35 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the BSW win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Current Probability: 29.95%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW
February 20, 2025 at 4:32 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?

Current Probability: 18.61%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP
February 20, 2025 at 4:26 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Will the Greens win 15% or more of the vote in the German election?

Current Probability: 15.77%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Gruene #Gruenen
February 20, 2025 at 4:20 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Our updated forecast for the German national election:
CDU/CSU 30.0%, AfD 20.4%, SPD 15.5%, Greens 13.4%, Left 6.5%, BSW 4.4%, FDP 4.3%, Others 5.6%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #Bundestagswahl #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #AfD #SPD #Gruenen #Linke #BSW #FDP #Merz #Weidel #Scholz #Habeck
February 20, 2025 at 3:24 PM
momoracle.bsky.social
Today’s forecast for the German national election:
CDU/CSU 29.9%, AfD 20.6%, SPD 15.6%, Greens 13.3%, Left 6.3%, BSW 4.5%, FDP 4.3%, Others 5.6%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #Bundestagswahl #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #AfD #SPD #Gruenen #Linke #BSW #FDP #Merz #Weidel #Scholz #Habeck
February 18, 2025 at 4:05 PM