MoMoracle
@momoracle.bsky.social
Modular Modelling for Election Predictions across the World.
Momoracle.com
Momoracle.com
We predict a parliamentary majority for the Liberals of Mark Carney in today's Canadian elections
#CanadaElections2025 #Carney #Poilievre #Canada
#CanadaElections2025 #Carney #Poilievre #Canada
April 28, 2025 at 5:31 PM
We predict a parliamentary majority for the Liberals of Mark Carney in today's Canadian elections
#CanadaElections2025 #Carney #Poilievre #Canada
#CanadaElections2025 #Carney #Poilievre #Canada
Our prediction for #CanadaElections2025
Vote share:
LPC 43.1%, CPC 38.9%, NDP 7.9%, BQ 6%, GPC 1.9%
Seats:
LPC 187, CPC 126, BQ 22, NDP 7, GPC 1
Vote share:
LPC 43.1%, CPC 38.9%, NDP 7.9%, BQ 6%, GPC 1.9%
Seats:
LPC 187, CPC 126, BQ 22, NDP 7, GPC 1
April 28, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Our prediction for #CanadaElections2025
Vote share:
LPC 43.1%, CPC 38.9%, NDP 7.9%, BQ 6%, GPC 1.9%
Seats:
LPC 187, CPC 126, BQ 22, NDP 7, GPC 1
Vote share:
LPC 43.1%, CPC 38.9%, NDP 7.9%, BQ 6%, GPC 1.9%
Seats:
LPC 187, CPC 126, BQ 22, NDP 7, GPC 1
Our final forecast for the Hamburg state election: SPD 32.3%, CDU 17.5%, Greens 17.2%, Left 11.4%, AfD 9.9%, BSW 2.7%, FDP 2.7%, Volt 2.7% #Buergerschaftswahl2025
Compared to last week: SPD +0.4%, CDU/CSU +0.0%, Greens, -1.4%, Left +2.1%, AfD +0.4%, BSW -0.3%, FDP -0.3%, Volt -0.3%
Compared to last week: SPD +0.4%, CDU/CSU +0.0%, Greens, -1.4%, Left +2.1%, AfD +0.4%, BSW -0.3%, FDP -0.3%, Volt -0.3%
March 1, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Our final forecast for the Hamburg state election: SPD 32.3%, CDU 17.5%, Greens 17.2%, Left 11.4%, AfD 9.9%, BSW 2.7%, FDP 2.7%, Volt 2.7% #Buergerschaftswahl2025
Compared to last week: SPD +0.4%, CDU/CSU +0.0%, Greens, -1.4%, Left +2.1%, AfD +0.4%, BSW -0.3%, FDP -0.3%, Volt -0.3%
Compared to last week: SPD +0.4%, CDU/CSU +0.0%, Greens, -1.4%, Left +2.1%, AfD +0.4%, BSW -0.3%, FDP -0.3%, Volt -0.3%
Reposted by MoMoracle
1/ Our German Election Review The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter?
A deep dive into the results. 👇
A deep dive into the results. 👇
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
1/ Our German Election Review The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter?
A deep dive into the results. 👇
A deep dive into the results. 👇
1/ Our German Election Review The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter?
A deep dive into the results. 👇
A deep dive into the results. 👇
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
1/ Our German Election Review The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter?
A deep dive into the results. 👇
A deep dive into the results. 👇
Reposted by MoMoracle
In the last Romanian election, our Social Media Strength (SMS) index improved traditional polls. How does it look like in Germany now?
SMS, 21-23 February 2025:
AfD 36.9%, Left 16.3%, CDU/CSU 15.8%, SPD 10.0%, Greens 7.7%, FDP 6.9%, BSW 6.4%
2 things stand out:
#BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl
SMS, 21-23 February 2025:
AfD 36.9%, Left 16.3%, CDU/CSU 15.8%, SPD 10.0%, Greens 7.7%, FDP 6.9%, BSW 6.4%
2 things stand out:
#BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl
February 23, 2025 at 2:39 PM
In the last Romanian election, our Social Media Strength (SMS) index improved traditional polls. How does it look like in Germany now?
SMS, 21-23 February 2025:
AfD 36.9%, Left 16.3%, CDU/CSU 15.8%, SPD 10.0%, Greens 7.7%, FDP 6.9%, BSW 6.4%
2 things stand out:
#BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl
SMS, 21-23 February 2025:
AfD 36.9%, Left 16.3%, CDU/CSU 15.8%, SPD 10.0%, Greens 7.7%, FDP 6.9%, BSW 6.4%
2 things stand out:
#BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl
Reposted by MoMoracle
Will the AfD win the 2nd most seats in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 99.08%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
Predicted Probability: 99.08%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
February 22, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Will the AfD win the 2nd most seats in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 99.08%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
Predicted Probability: 99.08%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
Reposted by MoMoracle
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion (pass 5% threshold or win at least 3 districts) // Kommt die Linke in Fraktionsstärke in den Bundestag (5% Hürde oder mind. 3 Direktmandate)?
Predicted Probability: 98.84%
#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Predicted Probability: 98.84%
#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion (pass 5% threshold or win at least 3 districts) // Kommt die Linke in Fraktionsstärke in den Bundestag (5% Hürde oder mind. 3 Direktmandate)?
Predicted Probability: 98.84%
#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Predicted Probability: 98.84%
#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Reposted by MoMoracle
Will the Left win 3 or more districts / Gewinnt Die Linke 3 oder mehr Wahlkreise?
Predicted probability: 90.28%
#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Predicted probability: 90.28%
#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Will the Left win 3 or more districts / Gewinnt Die Linke 3 oder mehr Wahlkreise?
Predicted probability: 90.28%
#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Predicted probability: 90.28%
#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Reposted by MoMoracle
Will the Left win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 88.09%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
Predicted Probability: 88.09%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
February 22, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Will the Left win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 88.09%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
Predicted Probability: 88.09%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
Reposted by MoMoracle
Will the BSW win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 34%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
Predicted Probability: 34%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
February 22, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Will the BSW win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 34%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
Predicted Probability: 34%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
Reposted by MoMoracle
Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 24.93%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner
Predicted Probability: 24.93%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner
February 22, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 24.93%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner
Predicted Probability: 24.93%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner
Can the AfD still win the German election?
Polling errors suggest it’s not impossible. CDU/CSU leads with a 99.79% chance, but history - like the most recent German state election - shows swings >9.37 points are feasible. #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl /1
Polling errors suggest it’s not impossible. CDU/CSU leads with a 99.79% chance, but history - like the most recent German state election - shows swings >9.37 points are feasible. #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl /1
a man is talking to a woman and saying `` so you 're telling me there 's a chance .
ALT: a man is talking to a woman and saying `` so you 're telling me there 's a chance .
media.tenor.com
February 23, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Can the AfD still win the German election?
Polling errors suggest it’s not impossible. CDU/CSU leads with a 99.79% chance, but history - like the most recent German state election - shows swings >9.37 points are feasible. #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl /1
Polling errors suggest it’s not impossible. CDU/CSU leads with a 99.79% chance, but history - like the most recent German state election - shows swings >9.37 points are feasible. #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl /1
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion (pass 5% threshold or win at least 3 districts) // Kommt die Linke in Fraktionsstärke in den Bundestag (5% Hürde oder mind. 3 Direktmandate)?
Predicted Probability: 98.84%
#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Predicted Probability: 98.84%
#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion (pass 5% threshold or win at least 3 districts) // Kommt die Linke in Fraktionsstärke in den Bundestag (5% Hürde oder mind. 3 Direktmandate)?
Predicted Probability: 98.84%
#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Predicted Probability: 98.84%
#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Will the Left win 3 or more districts / Gewinnt Die Linke 3 oder mehr Wahlkreise?
Predicted probability: 90.28%
#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Predicted probability: 90.28%
#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
February 23, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Will the Left win 3 or more districts / Gewinnt Die Linke 3 oder mehr Wahlkreise?
Predicted probability: 90.28%
#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Predicted probability: 90.28%
#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025
Will the AfD win the 2nd most seats in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 99.08%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
Predicted Probability: 99.08%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
February 22, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Will the AfD win the 2nd most seats in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 99.08%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
Predicted Probability: 99.08%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel
Will the Left win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 88.09%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
Predicted Probability: 88.09%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
February 22, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Will the Left win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 88.09%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
Predicted Probability: 88.09%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #Linke #DieLinke #Linken #Reichinnek
Will the BSW win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 34%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
Predicted Probability: 34%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
February 22, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Will the BSW win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 34%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
Predicted Probability: 34%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #BSW #Wagenknecht
Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 24.93%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner
Predicted Probability: 24.93%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner
February 22, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Will the FDP win 5% or more of the vote in the German election?
Predicted Probability: 24.93%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner
Predicted Probability: 24.93%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #FDP #Lindner