MoMoracle
@momoracle.bsky.social
Modular Modelling for Election Predictions across the World.
Momoracle.com
Momoracle.com
6/ Read the full review of the Bundestagswahl here: momoracle.substack.com/p/review-of-...
Review of the 2025 German Bundestagswahl: Pollster Performance and Accurate Predictions
Which pollster excelled in predicting the German election, and why was a non-traditional online index still useful in a highly accurate polling landscape?
momoracle.substack.com
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
6/ Read the full review of the Bundestagswahl here: momoracle.substack.com/p/review-of-...
5/ Social Media Insight
Our Social Media Strength (SMS) index didn’t tweak our main model - German polls are too good. But it hinted at AfD’s stall and Left’s last-minute surge, adding depth to the data. Social media vibes mattered, even if subtle.
Our Social Media Strength (SMS) index didn’t tweak our main model - German polls are too good. But it hinted at AfD’s stall and Left’s last-minute surge, adding depth to the data. Social media vibes mattered, even if subtle.
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
5/ Social Media Insight
Our Social Media Strength (SMS) index didn’t tweak our main model - German polls are too good. But it hinted at AfD’s stall and Left’s last-minute surge, adding depth to the data. Social media vibes mattered, even if subtle.
Our Social Media Strength (SMS) index didn’t tweak our main model - German polls are too good. But it hinted at AfD’s stall and Left’s last-minute surge, adding depth to the data. Social media vibes mattered, even if subtle.
4/ Momoracle’s Probabilistic Wins
Our model nailed all key predictions: CDU/CSU won, AfD took 2nd, Greens <15%, Left >5% + 3 districts, FDP & BSW <5%.
Our model nailed all key predictions: CDU/CSU won, AfD took 2nd, Greens <15%, Left >5% + 3 districts, FDP & BSW <5%.
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
4/ Momoracle’s Probabilistic Wins
Our model nailed all key predictions: CDU/CSU won, AfD took 2nd, Greens <15%, Left >5% + 3 districts, FDP & BSW <5%.
Our model nailed all key predictions: CDU/CSU won, AfD took 2nd, Greens <15%, Left >5% + 3 districts, FDP & BSW <5%.
3/ How Good Were German Polls?
Compared to the 2024 US election (avg error 2.94%), German pollsters crushed it in 2025 - errors from 0.61 to 1.61%. Even the "worst" shone by global standards.
Compared to the 2024 US election (avg error 2.94%), German pollsters crushed it in 2025 - errors from 0.61 to 1.61%. Even the "worst" shone by global standards.
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
3/ How Good Were German Polls?
Compared to the 2024 US election (avg error 2.94%), German pollsters crushed it in 2025 - errors from 0.61 to 1.61%. Even the "worst" shone by global standards.
Compared to the 2024 US election (avg error 2.94%), German pollsters crushed it in 2025 - errors from 0.61 to 1.61%. Even the "worst" shone by global standards.
2/ YouGov topped the 2025 election polls with a 0.61% error, followed by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Ipsos at 0.7%. GMS (1.44%) and Verian (1.61%) lagged. The 2021 champ Allensbach slipped to 1.21%.
February 24, 2025 at 6:07 PM
2/ YouGov topped the 2025 election polls with a 0.61% error, followed by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Ipsos at 0.7%. GMS (1.44%) and Verian (1.61%) lagged. The 2021 champ Allensbach slipped to 1.21%.
The correlation between online strength and polling is weak at best for the parties – with the exception of the Linke:
February 23, 2025 at 2:39 PM
The correlation between online strength and polling is weak at best for the parties – with the exception of the Linke:
1. The AfD is in a strong first place, but it strength has declined substantially since the Musk-Weidel talk.
February 23, 2025 at 2:39 PM
1. The AfD is in a strong first place, but it strength has declined substantially since the Musk-Weidel talk.