Mike Donnelly
@mikedonnelly.bsky.social
Chief Economist at a tech company
Priors: IRS, IHS Global Insight, DRI, WEFA, Wall Street (J&W Seligman)
Former PCBE President (Philly NABE)
#EconTwitterIRL 2023 & 2024
Views my own, not my employers’
Priors: IRS, IHS Global Insight, DRI, WEFA, Wall Street (J&W Seligman)
Former PCBE President (Philly NABE)
#EconTwitterIRL 2023 & 2024
Views my own, not my employers’
If nothing is done, expect rate spikes, wider spreads, and tighter credit unless Fed re-injects liquidity via stealth QE or a BTFP-2.
Stable reserves = stable policy transmission.
Stable reserves = stable policy transmission.
November 12, 2025 at 9:14 PM
If nothing is done, expect rate spikes, wider spreads, and tighter credit unless Fed re-injects liquidity via stealth QE or a BTFP-2.
Stable reserves = stable policy transmission.
Stable reserves = stable policy transmission.
reserves at danger zone—at $2.8T, or 9% of NGDP, versus a normal 14%. aka short $1.5T. MMFs, Treasury cash shifts, and collateral drains—not QT—are the main culprits.
Reserves under 10% of NGDP, short-term funding markets lose elasticity.
Reserves under 10% of NGDP, short-term funding markets lose elasticity.
November 12, 2025 at 9:14 PM
reserves at danger zone—at $2.8T, or 9% of NGDP, versus a normal 14%. aka short $1.5T. MMFs, Treasury cash shifts, and collateral drains—not QT—are the main culprits.
Reserves under 10% of NGDP, short-term funding markets lose elasticity.
Reserves under 10% of NGDP, short-term funding markets lose elasticity.
Love how a guy had a tarp ready to go
November 11, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Love how a guy had a tarp ready to go
10 years in the making the Trump plan:
1) maybe a small tax cut ~$1,000, maybe none
2) with no scale or leverage "negotiate" a health care plan on your own vs. a massive insurance company
3) Lose your ACA coverage and ~$25,000 subsidy
4) Feel good cause now you are an entrepreneur
1) maybe a small tax cut ~$1,000, maybe none
2) with no scale or leverage "negotiate" a health care plan on your own vs. a massive insurance company
3) Lose your ACA coverage and ~$25,000 subsidy
4) Feel good cause now you are an entrepreneur
November 11, 2025 at 8:37 PM
10 years in the making the Trump plan:
1) maybe a small tax cut ~$1,000, maybe none
2) with no scale or leverage "negotiate" a health care plan on your own vs. a massive insurance company
3) Lose your ACA coverage and ~$25,000 subsidy
4) Feel good cause now you are an entrepreneur
1) maybe a small tax cut ~$1,000, maybe none
2) with no scale or leverage "negotiate" a health care plan on your own vs. a massive insurance company
3) Lose your ACA coverage and ~$25,000 subsidy
4) Feel good cause now you are an entrepreneur
In August it was $4 Trillion
November 11, 2025 at 7:59 PM
In August it was $4 Trillion
today's chart: dual mandate conundrum ?
November 10, 2025 at 8:15 PM
today's chart: dual mandate conundrum ?
100%, its just math.
November 10, 2025 at 8:06 PM
100%, its just math.
Or, different sides of the dual mandate?
Conference Board pays more attention to jobs while Michigan prefers inflation (IMO) — and the labor market has been strong while households remain price-fatigued
Conference Board pays more attention to jobs while Michigan prefers inflation (IMO) — and the labor market has been strong while households remain price-fatigued
November 10, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Or, different sides of the dual mandate?
Conference Board pays more attention to jobs while Michigan prefers inflation (IMO) — and the labor market has been strong while households remain price-fatigued
Conference Board pays more attention to jobs while Michigan prefers inflation (IMO) — and the labor market has been strong while households remain price-fatigued
Sampling?
UMich shifted to mixed phone/online sample; CB maintained more consistent methodology.
UMich shifted to mixed phone/online sample; CB maintained more consistent methodology.
November 10, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Sampling?
UMich shifted to mixed phone/online sample; CB maintained more consistent methodology.
UMich shifted to mixed phone/online sample; CB maintained more consistent methodology.
100%. Look at what they took from us, we had it good.
November 7, 2025 at 6:00 PM
100%. Look at what they took from us, we had it good.
No badges, no ID, no official vehicles, faces covered, no uniforms. Ideal cover
November 6, 2025 at 8:37 PM
No badges, no ID, no official vehicles, faces covered, no uniforms. Ideal cover
Could be refering to Wal-Mart's Thanksgiving Dinner meal, it has 17% fewer calories than last year's meal.
November 6, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Could be refering to Wal-Mart's Thanksgiving Dinner meal, it has 17% fewer calories than last year's meal.
Thanks — helpful. So the right way to say it is: deposit flows don’t change the quantity of reserves, only Fed balance-sheet actions do.
November 4, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Thanks — helpful. So the right way to say it is: deposit flows don’t change the quantity of reserves, only Fed balance-sheet actions do.
Understood on reserves. Just confirming: low deposit rates don’t cause SRF usage, but they do accelerate the reserve drain that eventually leads us there — fair?
November 4, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Understood on reserves. Just confirming: low deposit rates don’t cause SRF usage, but they do accelerate the reserve drain that eventually leads us there — fair?
With ~$3T moving to money funds and ~$2T drained by QT, is some SRF usage simply banks choosing to tap Fed liquidity rather than raise deposit rates to compete with MMFs?
November 4, 2025 at 3:19 PM
With ~$3T moving to money funds and ~$2T drained by QT, is some SRF usage simply banks choosing to tap Fed liquidity rather than raise deposit rates to compete with MMFs?
another reason to never open the government back up ? if GOP thinks the jobs numbers are bad... no data better than bad data?
November 3, 2025 at 2:24 PM
another reason to never open the government back up ? if GOP thinks the jobs numbers are bad... no data better than bad data?
need an expert for that
@danielzhao.bsky.social
@danielzhao.bsky.social
October 30, 2025 at 9:30 PM
need an expert for that
@danielzhao.bsky.social
@danielzhao.bsky.social
During a shutdown, furloughed feds (not working, not paid) can apply via UCFE & UI.
“excepted” workers working w/o pay can’t.
If back pay later approved, UI received must be repaid, so few take it.
but as it extends they might and that will conflate the UI data
“excepted” workers working w/o pay can’t.
If back pay later approved, UI received must be repaid, so few take it.
but as it extends they might and that will conflate the UI data
October 30, 2025 at 6:11 PM
During a shutdown, furloughed feds (not working, not paid) can apply via UCFE & UI.
“excepted” workers working w/o pay can’t.
If back pay later approved, UI received must be repaid, so few take it.
but as it extends they might and that will conflate the UI data
“excepted” workers working w/o pay can’t.
If back pay later approved, UI received must be repaid, so few take it.
but as it extends they might and that will conflate the UI data
at some point the rent comes due, I think an abnormally high percent of Federal workers will have to claim UI soon. Prior two shutdowns were about 10% take up, as retro back pay means you have to pay UI back and that's a hassle
October 30, 2025 at 5:06 PM
at some point the rent comes due, I think an abnormally high percent of Federal workers will have to claim UI soon. Prior two shutdowns were about 10% take up, as retro back pay means you have to pay UI back and that's a hassle
theoretically we could see an enormous increase in UI claims as govt workers start to apply for benefits
October 29, 2025 at 7:03 PM
theoretically we could see an enormous increase in UI claims as govt workers start to apply for benefits