Mike Donnelly
@mikedonnelly.bsky.social
Chief Economist at a tech company
Priors: IRS, IHS Global Insight, DRI, WEFA, Wall Street (J&W Seligman)
Former PCBE President (Philly NABE)
#EconTwitterIRL 2023 & 2024
Views my own, not my employers’
Priors: IRS, IHS Global Insight, DRI, WEFA, Wall Street (J&W Seligman)
Former PCBE President (Philly NABE)
#EconTwitterIRL 2023 & 2024
Views my own, not my employers’
Tariffs are bad but (surprisingly) not responsible for high coffee prices. US Tariffs on coffee invisible on the global stage
November 12, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Tariffs are bad but (surprisingly) not responsible for high coffee prices. US Tariffs on coffee invisible on the global stage
@jc-econ.bsky.social
"We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind,
’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind."
— “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982)
— “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)"
...keep my day job?
"We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind,
’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind."
— “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982)
— “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)"
...keep my day job?
November 10, 2025 at 7:48 PM
@jc-econ.bsky.social
"We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind,
’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind."
— “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982)
— “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)"
...keep my day job?
"We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind,
’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind."
— “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982)
— “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)"
...keep my day job?
November 6, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Is this a new form of QE? researching....
November 3, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Is this a new form of QE? researching....
@danielzhao.bsky.social
about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it?
Roughly this
about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it?
Roughly this
October 29, 2025 at 4:04 PM
@danielzhao.bsky.social
about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it?
Roughly this
about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it?
Roughly this
Looking forward to the Fed's comments today. I expect "data dependent" to be entirely removed. There is no data and won't be for some time.
October 29, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Looking forward to the Fed's comments today. I expect "data dependent" to be entirely removed. There is no data and won't be for some time.
Reminder: the GOP could end the shutdown today, they have all the votes they need.
October 29, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Reminder: the GOP could end the shutdown today, they have all the votes they need.
Reminder when 1 party holds all the reins, Senate, House and the White House they can pass a budget any time they want.
October 22, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Reminder when 1 party holds all the reins, Senate, House and the White House they can pass a budget any time they want.
QT is nearly over
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)
October 17, 2025 at 1:39 PM
QT is nearly over
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)
ACA question.
corp open enrollment is now. When do the folks on ACA see their new 2026 premiums ? I'm guessing not until next year or there would be a panic
corp open enrollment is now. When do the folks on ACA see their new 2026 premiums ? I'm guessing not until next year or there would be a panic
October 8, 2025 at 5:02 PM
ACA question.
corp open enrollment is now. When do the folks on ACA see their new 2026 premiums ? I'm guessing not until next year or there would be a panic
corp open enrollment is now. When do the folks on ACA see their new 2026 premiums ? I'm guessing not until next year or there would be a panic
Reposted by Mike Donnelly
Aaron is spot on, our paper shows that Trump proposed a 17% reduction in FTEs and currently 34% of senior career staff positions sit empty. Without adequate budget and without protecting these career positions we risk losing this independent analysis. www.americanprogress.org/shareable/mo...
October 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Aaron is spot on, our paper shows that Trump proposed a 17% reduction in FTEs and currently 34% of senior career staff positions sit empty. Without adequate budget and without protecting these career positions we risk losing this independent analysis. www.americanprogress.org/shareable/mo...
Coffee tariffs lifting price? No. US prices muted by strong USD$ + lag. Sweden’s free market = world’s highest coffee inflation. Elsewhere, state controls mask true cost.
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb
September 22, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Coffee tariffs lifting price? No. US prices muted by strong USD$ + lag. Sweden’s free market = world’s highest coffee inflation. Elsewhere, state controls mask true cost.
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb
No it is exactly how this works. And democracy around the world doesn’t have an answer
David Letterman to Jeffrey Goldberg on Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension: “You can’t go around firing somebody because you’re fearful or trying to suck up to an authoritarian—a criminal—administration in the Oval Office. That’s just not how this works.” #TAF25 bit.ly/4n0Uv2p
September 18, 2025 at 7:37 PM
No it is exactly how this works. And democracy around the world doesn’t have an answer
PPI final demand services fell -0.2% m/m as service prices for trade slid -1.7% m/m. Tariffs hitting demand hard. But Stage 1–4 service inputs all rose — B2B costs are climbing. Price pressures are building further up the pipeline.
September 10, 2025 at 1:23 PM
PPI final demand services fell -0.2% m/m as service prices for trade slid -1.7% m/m. Tariffs hitting demand hard. But Stage 1–4 service inputs all rose — B2B costs are climbing. Price pressures are building further up the pipeline.
Reposted by Mike Donnelly
An @afm-union.bsky.social and @sagaftra.org gal.
An NFLPA guy.
We love a union love story. Congrats Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce!
An NFLPA guy.
We love a union love story. Congrats Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce!
August 26, 2025 at 6:05 PM
An @afm-union.bsky.social and @sagaftra.org gal.
An NFLPA guy.
We love a union love story. Congrats Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce!
An NFLPA guy.
We love a union love story. Congrats Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce!
Reposted by Mike Donnelly
Firing central bank officials because monetary policy isn’t sufficiently easy from the perspective of the government usually makes inflation problems worse
August 26, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Firing central bank officials because monetary policy isn’t sufficiently easy from the perspective of the government usually makes inflation problems worse
Reposted by Mike Donnelly
Apropos of nothing, a reminder that German stock markets kept climbing in an almost uninterrupted fashion in the run-up to WW2. Investors are really, really bad at pricing serious institutional and political risks.
August 26, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Apropos of nothing, a reminder that German stock markets kept climbing in an almost uninterrupted fashion in the run-up to WW2. Investors are really, really bad at pricing serious institutional and political risks.
Intel takeover isn’t socialism — it’s America’s Singapore play.
State takes equity in key firms.
Intel stays profit-driven, but its survival + chip leadership now underwritten by Washington.
Equity-backed state capitalism, not socialism, not western, think Asian
State takes equity in key firms.
Intel stays profit-driven, but its survival + chip leadership now underwritten by Washington.
Equity-backed state capitalism, not socialism, not western, think Asian
August 23, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Intel takeover isn’t socialism — it’s America’s Singapore play.
State takes equity in key firms.
Intel stays profit-driven, but its survival + chip leadership now underwritten by Washington.
Equity-backed state capitalism, not socialism, not western, think Asian
State takes equity in key firms.
Intel stays profit-driven, but its survival + chip leadership now underwritten by Washington.
Equity-backed state capitalism, not socialism, not western, think Asian
Somebody tapped ChatGPT 5 on the shoulder. 4o was more flexible
August 20, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Somebody tapped ChatGPT 5 on the shoulder. 4o was more flexible
rookie move, should have offered to do what you are already doing as a major concession
@swiss-un.bsky.social
@swiss-un.bsky.social
* SWISS PRESIDENT: WE HAVE POINTED OUT THAT WE WERE BUYING F35 JETS AND WE ARE KEEPING TO THAT.
@reuters.com
@reuters.com
August 7, 2025 at 2:06 PM
rookie move, should have offered to do what you are already doing as a major concession
@swiss-un.bsky.social
@swiss-un.bsky.social
Do we laugh or cry when certain Fed officials tell us the tariffs were a one time price adjustment. Sure, point to the one time.
bsky.app/profile/bren...
bsky.app/profile/bren...
What a graph
July 31, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Do we laugh or cry when certain Fed officials tell us the tariffs were a one time price adjustment. Sure, point to the one time.
bsky.app/profile/bren...
bsky.app/profile/bren...
Once again, the @atlantafed.org GDPNow was the best tracking estimate of GDP. Consistently higher than consensus and hovered around 3% for the past 7 weeks. Nice work Pat.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
GDPNow
GDPNow forecasting model provides a
www.atlantafed.org
July 30, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Once again, the @atlantafed.org GDPNow was the best tracking estimate of GDP. Consistently higher than consensus and hovered around 3% for the past 7 weeks. Nice work Pat.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
Core GDP is slowing
July 30, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Core GDP is slowing
One of these is not like the others
July 29, 2025 at 3:21 PM
One of these is not like the others