Mike Donnelly
@mikedonnelly.bsky.social
Chief Economist at a tech company
Priors: IRS, IHS Global Insight, DRI, WEFA, Wall Street (J&W Seligman)
Former PCBE President (Philly NABE)
#EconTwitterIRL 2023 & 2024
Views my own, not my employers’
Priors: IRS, IHS Global Insight, DRI, WEFA, Wall Street (J&W Seligman)
Former PCBE President (Philly NABE)
#EconTwitterIRL 2023 & 2024
Views my own, not my employers’
Tariffs are bad but (surprisingly) not responsible for high coffee prices. US Tariffs on coffee invisible on the global stage
November 12, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Tariffs are bad but (surprisingly) not responsible for high coffee prices. US Tariffs on coffee invisible on the global stage
In August it was $4 Trillion
November 11, 2025 at 7:59 PM
In August it was $4 Trillion
today's chart: dual mandate conundrum ?
November 10, 2025 at 8:15 PM
today's chart: dual mandate conundrum ?
@jc-econ.bsky.social
"We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind,
’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind."
— “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982)
— “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)"
...keep my day job?
"We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind,
’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind."
— “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982)
— “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)"
...keep my day job?
November 10, 2025 at 7:48 PM
@jc-econ.bsky.social
"We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind,
’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind."
— “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982)
— “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)"
...keep my day job?
"We can count if we want to, or we can leave our data behind,
’cause if we don’t count and if we don’t measure, then the narratives will leave us blind."
— “The Safety Dance,” Men Without Hats (1982)
— “The Data Dance,” MD (2025)"
...keep my day job?
100%. Look at what they took from us, we had it good.
November 7, 2025 at 6:00 PM
100%. Look at what they took from us, we had it good.
Is this a new form of QE? researching....
November 3, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Is this a new form of QE? researching....
@danielzhao.bsky.social
about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it?
Roughly this
about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it?
Roughly this
October 29, 2025 at 4:04 PM
@danielzhao.bsky.social
about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it?
Roughly this
about 10% of Federal workers during shutdowns claim UI and then have to pay it back after getting back pay. Its a hassle, but this shutdown is longer. Rent and mortgages are due Nov 1. What could UI claims look like if Fed workers need it?
Roughly this
QT is nearly over
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)
October 17, 2025 at 1:39 PM
QT is nearly over
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)
Coffee tariffs lifting price? No. US prices muted by strong USD$ + lag. Sweden’s free market = world’s highest coffee inflation. Elsewhere, state controls mask true cost.
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb
September 22, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Coffee tariffs lifting price? No. US prices muted by strong USD$ + lag. Sweden’s free market = world’s highest coffee inflation. Elsewhere, state controls mask true cost.
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb
The Atlantic recently wrote the US dominates soft power while China "makes stuff" so I tried to find examples where the US is 10x or 100x that of China and vice versa. Russian war shows the limits of soft power. US needs to start making stuff.
August 22, 2025 at 5:03 PM
The Atlantic recently wrote the US dominates soft power while China "makes stuff" so I tried to find examples where the US is 10x or 100x that of China and vice versa. Russian war shows the limits of soft power. US needs to start making stuff.
Somebody tapped ChatGPT 5 on the shoulder. 4o was more flexible
August 20, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Somebody tapped ChatGPT 5 on the shoulder. 4o was more flexible
I ask people to point to the "1 time move" in the tariff rate
August 8, 2025 at 2:14 PM
I ask people to point to the "1 time move" in the tariff rate
Core GDP is slowing
July 30, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Core GDP is slowing
We're All Trying To Find The Guy Who Did This
July 29, 2025 at 3:23 PM
We're All Trying To Find The Guy Who Did This
One of these is not like the others
July 29, 2025 at 3:21 PM
One of these is not like the others
Hasn't really shown up yet, but I refuse to believe this will have no impact.
July 29, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Hasn't really shown up yet, but I refuse to believe this will have no impact.
For 20+ yrs, goods (in blue) have restrained overall inflation, while services (in red) have surged well above it. The problem? The red stuff—like hospital care and housing—is essential. TVs aren’t.
July 28, 2025 at 7:54 PM
For 20+ yrs, goods (in blue) have restrained overall inflation, while services (in red) have surged well above it. The problem? The red stuff—like hospital care and housing—is essential. TVs aren’t.
Since 1998, Housing prices are up
330% Yes
125% also Yes
Which housing price is being discussed matters. A Lot.
330% Yes
125% also Yes
Which housing price is being discussed matters. A Lot.
July 28, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Since 1998, Housing prices are up
330% Yes
125% also Yes
Which housing price is being discussed matters. A Lot.
330% Yes
125% also Yes
Which housing price is being discussed matters. A Lot.
keep your damn gov't hands off my gov't health care - 2009
July 25, 2025 at 3:47 PM
keep your damn gov't hands off my gov't health care - 2009
its bananas. have to wonder what happens first, inflation or demand destruction and thus no inflation or worse both and stagflation
July 25, 2025 at 2:20 PM
its bananas. have to wonder what happens first, inflation or demand destruction and thus no inflation or worse both and stagflation
big fan of the "other ways to die" inclusion
did the same on my gun homicide chart, ~25 states you are more likely to die by gun violence then by, suicide by hanging or suffocation in 2019, and 3 states you are more likely to die by gun violence than motor vehicle accident
did the same on my gun homicide chart, ~25 states you are more likely to die by gun violence then by, suicide by hanging or suffocation in 2019, and 3 states you are more likely to die by gun violence than motor vehicle accident
July 21, 2025 at 4:13 PM
big fan of the "other ways to die" inclusion
did the same on my gun homicide chart, ~25 states you are more likely to die by gun violence then by, suicide by hanging or suffocation in 2019, and 3 states you are more likely to die by gun violence than motor vehicle accident
did the same on my gun homicide chart, ~25 states you are more likely to die by gun violence then by, suicide by hanging or suffocation in 2019, and 3 states you are more likely to die by gun violence than motor vehicle accident
Its only 1 month but the PPI report was a disaster.
Goods prices were constrained 2023-May 2025, but soared in June.
PPI services prices fell a clear sign of slumping activity despite favorable USD$ tailwind. Travel to the US is down 9%.
Goods prices were constrained 2023-May 2025, but soared in June.
PPI services prices fell a clear sign of slumping activity despite favorable USD$ tailwind. Travel to the US is down 9%.
July 16, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Its only 1 month but the PPI report was a disaster.
Goods prices were constrained 2023-May 2025, but soared in June.
PPI services prices fell a clear sign of slumping activity despite favorable USD$ tailwind. Travel to the US is down 9%.
Goods prices were constrained 2023-May 2025, but soared in June.
PPI services prices fell a clear sign of slumping activity despite favorable USD$ tailwind. Travel to the US is down 9%.
how much can they fit into a memory hole?
June 26, 2025 at 8:03 PM
how much can they fit into a memory hole?
BEA revised 1Q GDP lower to -0.5% q/q, not a big deal. But Core GDP was revised a lot lower, and income was lousy.
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
June 26, 2025 at 3:30 PM
BEA revised 1Q GDP lower to -0.5% q/q, not a big deal. But Core GDP was revised a lot lower, and income was lousy.
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...