Michael McDonough
@michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
Chief Economist, Financial Products at Bloomberg LP (ECAN, WSL ELECTION/AUCTIONS Mastermind) mmcdonough10@bloomberg.net *views are my own*
Reposted by Michael McDonough
Still notable political bias in inflation expectations, but expectations are broadly rising and Independents' views are surging:
▶️Democrats: +8.0%
▶️Independents: +6.5%
▶️Republicans: +0.4%
h/t @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
▶️Democrats: +8.0%
▶️Independents: +6.5%
▶️Republicans: +0.4%
h/t @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
April 25, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Still notable political bias in inflation expectations, but expectations are broadly rising and Independents' views are surging:
▶️Democrats: +8.0%
▶️Independents: +6.5%
▶️Republicans: +0.4%
h/t @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
▶️Democrats: +8.0%
▶️Independents: +6.5%
▶️Republicans: +0.4%
h/t @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael McDonough
Even Republicans' sentiment is deteriorating noticeably. Charts from @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
April 11, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Even Republicans' sentiment is deteriorating noticeably. Charts from @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael McDonough
Egg prices are at a record, now topping $7 a dozen via @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
February 3, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Egg prices are at a record, now topping $7 a dozen via @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
Here's how monthly mortgage payment for buying a $500K home have changed over time. Remember: Fed cuts target short-term rates, but mortgage costs also hinge on inflation expectations, long-term Treasury yields, and global investor demand—so they don't always move in lockstep.
December 21, 2024 at 10:53 PM
Here's how monthly mortgage payment for buying a $500K home have changed over time. Remember: Fed cuts target short-term rates, but mortgage costs also hinge on inflation expectations, long-term Treasury yields, and global investor demand—so they don't always move in lockstep.
Bitcoin once again leads the pack—here’s a snapshot of my global annual multi-asset returns matrix:
December 21, 2024 at 10:52 PM
Bitcoin once again leads the pack—here’s a snapshot of my global annual multi-asset returns matrix:
The percentage of Consumer Price Index (CPI) components with month-over-month increases exceeding their 5-year average has dropped significantly.
Find CPI Diffusion Indexes on the Terminal: {ECAN US DIF CPI /TR MOM% /D 10Y /V CHART <GO>}
Find CPI Diffusion Indexes on the Terminal: {ECAN US DIF CPI /TR MOM% /D 10Y /V CHART <GO>}
December 11, 2024 at 11:52 PM
The percentage of Consumer Price Index (CPI) components with month-over-month increases exceeding their 5-year average has dropped significantly.
Find CPI Diffusion Indexes on the Terminal: {ECAN US DIF CPI /TR MOM% /D 10Y /V CHART <GO>}
Find CPI Diffusion Indexes on the Terminal: {ECAN US DIF CPI /TR MOM% /D 10Y /V CHART <GO>}
Wonder who's watching the U.S. tariff schedule in real time? Wonder no more!
With tariff volatility ahead, we’re tracking real-time views and downloads by user location. Check out our first live data chart! G //KEY:6867188:2883<Go>
With tariff volatility ahead, we’re tracking real-time views and downloads by user location. Check out our first live data chart! G //KEY:6867188:2883<Go>
December 11, 2024 at 11:48 PM
Wonder who's watching the U.S. tariff schedule in real time? Wonder no more!
With tariff volatility ahead, we’re tracking real-time views and downloads by user location. Check out our first live data chart! G //KEY:6867188:2883<Go>
With tariff volatility ahead, we’re tracking real-time views and downloads by user location. Check out our first live data chart! G //KEY:6867188:2883<Go>
This week's US Treasury auction schedule via WSL AUCTIONS:
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
This week's US Treasury auction schedule via WSL AUCTIONS:
We’ve just launched an exciting new feature in ECAN – the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index, now with sector-level contributions!
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
We’ve just launched an exciting new feature in ECAN – the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index, now with sector-level contributions!
Another noteworthy UMich Sentiment Index chart: The percentage of respondents offering unsolicited positive or negative comments about economic policy news.
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Another noteworthy UMich Sentiment Index chart: The percentage of respondents offering unsolicited positive or negative comments about economic policy news.
Breaking Down the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index:
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Breaking Down the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index:
Arguably the most insightful politics and economics chart available—inflation expectations by political party affiliation—was just updated by the University of Michigan:
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Arguably the most insightful politics and economics chart available—inflation expectations by political party affiliation—was just updated by the University of Michigan:
The UMich Consumer Sentiment Political Affiliation Inversion is Now Complete!
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
The UMich Consumer Sentiment Political Affiliation Inversion is Now Complete!
Federal Government NFP (Excluding the Postal Service
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Federal Government NFP (Excluding the Postal Service
Looking at the contributions by status to the US Unemployment Rate from ECAN:
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Looking at the contributions by status to the US Unemployment Rate from ECAN:
Looking at the contributions by status to the US Unemployment Rate from ECAN:
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Looking at the contributions by status to the US Unemployment Rate from ECAN:
Breaking down the 1-month net change in NFP:
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Breaking down the 1-month net change in NFP:
Examining the 3-month moving average of net NFP changes:
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Examining the 3-month moving average of net NFP changes:
Jobs Day! ECAN<Go> Menu:
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Jobs Day! ECAN<Go> Menu:
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
Job's Day! ECAN<Go> Menu:
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Job's Day! ECAN<Go> Menu:
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
Today's #NFP release might be noisy, partly rebounding from last month's storm-related distortions. To cut through the noise, consider tracking the 3-month moving average of net NFP changes via ECAN. It’s been trending lower for a while, signaling a cooling labor market.
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Today's #NFP release might be noisy, partly rebounding from last month's storm-related distortions. To cut through the noise, consider tracking the 3-month moving average of net NFP changes via ECAN. It’s been trending lower for a while, signaling a cooling labor market.
With the jobs data scheduled for release tomorrow: Discussions about job cuts in S&P 500 earnings calls have only seen a slight uptick from relatively low levels, especially when compared to the spikes in 2020 and 2023. (Chart from ECAN
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
With the jobs data scheduled for release tomorrow: Discussions about job cuts in S&P 500 earnings calls have only seen a slight uptick from relatively low levels, especially when compared to the spikes in 2020 and 2023. (Chart from ECAN
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem at the Bloomberg & Global Interdependence Center Symposium at Bloomberg HQ.
December 11, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem at the Bloomberg & Global Interdependence Center Symposium at Bloomberg HQ.
Some background on Korea: In South Korea, claims of impending martial law inflame political ‘war of attrition’ | South China Morning Post
scmp.com/week-asia/poli…
scmp.com/week-asia/poli…
South Korea caught in ‘war of attrition’ amid claims of impending martial law
Allegations President Yoon Suk-yeol would impose martial law to avoid impeachment carry echoes of past political crackdowns.
www.scmp.com
December 11, 2024 at 11:46 PM
Some background on Korea: In South Korea, claims of impending martial law inflame political ‘war of attrition’ | South China Morning Post
scmp.com/week-asia/poli…
scmp.com/week-asia/poli…